ATL: ISAAC - Models

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duris
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3901 Postby duris » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:50 am

City of New Orleans web site says evacuate for inland if it's a Cat 3. Anything over a 1 I'm out.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3902 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:58 am

That's a big shift in intensity by the HWRF form the last run.

Edit: Actually i just realized the hwrf has it with a low pressure than average for it's intensity.
Last edited by Hurricane Alexis on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3903 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:00 pm

duris wrote:City of New Orleans web site says evacuate for inland if it's a Cat 3. Anything over a 1 I'm out.

good plan. better safe than sorry, and you beat the rush if that cat1 decides to turn into a cat3. Cant lose!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3904 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:01 pm

12z HWRF +24

Image

12z HWRF +30

Image

12z HWRF +36

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3905 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:01 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:That's a big shift in intensity by the HWRF form the last run.

Edit: Actually i just realized the hwrf has it with a low pressure than average for it's intensity.


New HWRF run is (as of 42 hrs) even stronger than 06z run, but more north
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#3906 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:04 pm

12z HWRF +42

Image

12z HWRF +48 (This is the 3rd time the HWRF has fallen back to this solution of a SE FL initial CONUS landfall with an exit in SW FL back into the GOM)

Image
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#3907 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:05 pm

Ya, this run looks a bit north....or east...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3908 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:07 pm

A reminder that the HWRF has a horrible track record for those who are not familiar with it.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3909 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:08 pm

Ivanhater wrote:A reminder that the HWRF has a horrible track record for those who are not familiar with it.


I didn't know that and how?
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#3910 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:08 pm

its the intensity I am worried about. I mean, don't take models intensity forecasts with any more than a grain of salt.. but just seeing that prediction with your own two eyes, little scary
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#3911 Postby CronkPSU » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:09 pm

the RNC will certainly not like this HWRF path...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3912 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:10 pm

The HWRF may be horrible but still the same that everyone on the West coast should prepare for the worst as it will most certainly be close enough.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3913 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:12 pm

Ivanhater wrote:A reminder that the HWRF has a horrible track record for those who are not familiar with it.


I would say the the HWRF has performed better than the Euro with this storm so far...

This was the solution 3 days ago... Seems to have nailed it so far

Image
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#3914 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:14 pm

12z HWRf +60

Image
Last edited by Jevo on Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3915 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:15 pm

:uarrow: OUCH!!!!
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#3916 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:17 pm

A JOG west? and weaken in 6 hours Jevo?
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Re:

#3917 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:17 pm

deltadog03 wrote:A JOG west? and weaken in 6 hours Jevo?


Heh old run... darn cookies
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#3918 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:18 pm

Statistically, the HWRF model is one of the worst performing models. However, we can discuss this further when things slow down.
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#3919 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:19 pm

12z HWRF + 66 (I think some would have preferred the old run)

Image
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#3920 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:19 pm

Intensity seems unrealistic for this track IMO.
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