ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Hammy]

I dub thee, Trollnesto

I've essentially given up on trying to figure out what the storm is going to do at this point, such inconsistency with its intensity, not just fluctuations but in many cases making several significant changes back and fourth in organization.

[floridasun78]

it look we looking weaking system again

[hurricanefloyd5]

This thing in moving NW.

[floridasun78]

THIS THING IS MOVING NW.

i talk to my friend who goood tracking hurr he say still moving wnw

[StormTracker]

Watch this buoy! On the current track it will pass within 70 miles of the center

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Pressure is falling rapidly!!!

[tailgater]

I think the collapse is about over and I seriously doubt it will wait until tonite to start refiring hot towers.



Lets check this image again in about 3 hrs.

[Texashawk]

It looks like Ernesto is going to end up about 1 degree north of its forecast position given satellite observation of where the center may be located. Fairly significant for purposes of entry angle.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

I'm measuring heading in GARP. From 1415Z-2015Z I measure an average heading of 280 deg (west) at 12 kts. No NW motion. The center took a short wobble NW as it intensified when the recon plane was there, but shortly afterward it resumed a westerly course.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND
MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF NICARAGUA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT45 KNHC 062040
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

AFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...THE LAST COUPLE OF CENTER PENETRATIONS BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS INDICATED THAT THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS STOPPED FALLING...FOR NOW...AND THE INTENSITY OF THE
CORE CONVECTION...AS MEASURED BY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHTNING DATA...HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED
IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST SFMR
OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS COMPARED TO
THE LAST FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED
FURTHER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ERNESTO IS IN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
NUMERICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

AFTER THE EARLIER REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WHICH IS NOW 295/10.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...TO THE NORTH OF A RATHER WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE
WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE VERY FAR NORTH OVER THE GULF.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS
ALSO SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF
TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.2N 81.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 18.0N 85.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.7N 87.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 19.2N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/1800Z 19.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 19.5N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 19.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[floridasun78]

only worry to mexico guys releax not usa issue it mexico issue let hope mexico be ok


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

Could Ernesto make it to the EPAC alive?

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm measuring heading in GARP. From 1415Z-2015Z I measure an average heading of 280 deg (west) at 12 kts. No NW motion. The center took a short wobble NW as it intensified when the recon plane was there, but shortly afterward it resumed a westerly course.

It's been the same since he formed for me. If he stays weak, he goes west. If he becomes a hurricane, he'll move more North. When do you see hurricane status for him?

[wxman57]

It looks like Ernesto is going to end up about 1 degree north of its forecast position given satellite observation of where the center may be located. Fairly significant for purposes of entry angle.

http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/174/862012vis.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Note that the center is not that dark area on the sat picture in your link. That's an area free of squalls but north of the center. I put the center near 16.1N/81.6W, which is actually south of the NHC forecast, though I admit there is some question as to the location as it's not as easy to find in recent imagery. I'm fairly sure it was near 16.1N/81.2W at 1845Z.

[cycloneye]

Moving WNW at 295 degrees.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 81.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[wxman57]

I'm measuring heading in GARP. From 1415Z-2015Z I measure an average heading of 280 deg (west) at 12 kts. No NW motion. The center took a short wobble NW as it intensified when the recon plane was there, but shortly afterward it resumed a westerly course.

It's been the same since he formed for me. If he stays weak, he goes west. If he becomes a hurricane, he'll move more North. When do you see hurricane status for him?

At 10am I'd have said it could be a hurricane by noon at the rate it was strengthening. Then it put on the brakes and shifted to reverse. Looks weaker now. Minor changes aloft can have a major impact on a hurricane, and the models can't pick up on that. I'd say somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 4 when it hits the Yucatan.

[AJC3]

It looks to me like Ernesto is still mixing out some dry air, since it's vomiting arc clouds out to the W-N quadrant.

[wxman57]

I'd actually measured the current location at 16.15N/81.6W. NHC says 16.2N/81.6W. It was at 16.2W this morning. Without using a calculator, I'd say that's approximately a westerly motion for the past 6 hrs.

[crimi481]

Look familiar?
2 ULL'S - one on each side S. Fl - Storm in middle (and south of them)
They must be factor in shearing off N. Quad of Storm. e have seen this before

ULL's still rule in this part Tropics
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

I'd actually measured the current location at 16.15N/81.6W. NHC says 16.2N/81.6W. It was at 16.2W this morning. Without using a calculator, I'd say that's approximately a westerly motion for the past 6 hrs.

Why Richard has 295 degress?

[stephen23]

wxman 57. I am by no way a met at all. I was hoping you could answer a question for me. In last water vapor loop what was happening when that visible circle got pulled east under convection from where you were saying llc was? I was looking closely where you were saying and in last loop a clear circle rapidly headed east. I am interested in how these things work