ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

I dub thee, Trollnesto

I've essentially given up on trying to figure out what the storm is going to do at this point, such inconsistency with its intensity, not just fluctuations but in many cases making several significant changes back and fourth in organization.

I agree with you, although the storm can be impressive at times, its strength is often overestimated by the models; when Ernesto suddenly intensified this morning, at 5 PM today I believe it was expected to already be a hurricane, look at it. It is still at 65 mph and the pressure has risen. So I agree with you 100% on what you said. Now I am questioning whether Ernesto will be a hurricane at all by tomorrow, when the NHC said it would, given its unpredictable behavior.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lrak]

Will it stay in the BOC long enough to produce a swell for Texas?

karl aka lrak

[drezee]

42057 is being bombarded! 17+ ft waves

52mph sustained and Gusts to 60+mph measured...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

[ConvergenceZone]

WXMAN said I'd say somewhere between an open wave and a Cat 4 when it hits the Yucatan.

Sorry WXMAN, but I can't help but get a chuckle out of that one...

[lrak]

42057 is being bombarded! 17+ ft waves

52mph sustained and Gusts to 60+mph measured...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=STN

Wish that was the BOC buoy

[Sanibel]

I see a big secondary eyewall on visible zoom.

[tolakram]

Latest

[tolakram]

Based on the MIMIC-TPW it's does appear some drier air was gulped in.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

[cycloneye]

Maybe the crew went to a closer place? Maybe to Cozumel? What do you think Dave?

[SouthDadeFish]

If anyone is interested, I just finished a blog post on Ernesto. I discuss a track and intensity forecast, as well as a current analysis.

http://canefever.wordpress.com/2012/08/06/atl-22z/

[hurricanes1234]

What's going on now? An eyewall trying to form? Does anybody think Ernesto is strengthening?

[Dave]

Maybe the crew went to a closer place? Maybe to Cozumel? What do you think Dave?

On the last set of hdobs that we didn't post their heading was NW towards Cozumel. Normally if they were going back to Keesler they'd go thru the Yucatan straits but this time it was more of a NW heading towards Mexico/Yucatan. It would make sense if they did...shorter flight back to the center by refueling on the Yucatan. Plus they stayed a little longer than normal on that last mission, made 5 passes instead of the normal 4 and may have been a little shorter on fuel for the return trip esp for the distance they were from both St Croix & Keesler. Should know either way soon.

[SouthDadeFish]

This AMSU pass shows Ernesto's smaller eyewall collapsed:

[Weatherfreak000]

Appears to be building another larger eyewall. Honestly that looks pretty good, should definitely ramp up tonight.


See S2K disclaimer for official purposes, I am just an amateur.

[Hurricane Andrew]

EWRC?

[SouthDadeFish]

EWRC?

Certainly appears like it to me. Seems like dry air killed off the unstable, small 6-10 nm eyewall earlier, and now a larger one is building. (Just my opinion)

[Hurricane Andrew]

When recon flies, I can take HDOBS for a few.

[Weatherfreak000]

EWRC?

Looks that way, dry air mixed it while he was developing his smaller eye and disrupted the circulation. The convection wane appears to resemble that. Too early to tell I would say.


(I am not stating this is what is occurring. Refer to NHC for that information)

[ATCcane]

Would be very unlikely that they went to Cancun and landed except maybe in the case of an emergency. They were likely headed back to Biloxi. There is an airway that runs from the northeastern tip of the Yucatan up to Just south of New Orleans that is used by air traffic when crossing the GOM. When the Hurricane Hunters are doing their missions in the lower altitudes they obviously are operating "on their own", but when up in the higher altitudes such as they were while headed back to the north they are mixing with other aircraft and in a non-radar environment such as the GOM more often than not all aircraft are on a published airway so air traffic control can separate them from other aircraft.