SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical

[Chacor]

Pinhole eye. Absolutely remarkable strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 110 kt ... 6 hours ago it was 65 kt ... WOW!!!

[P.K.]

D3.5/24hrs and D2.0/06hrs from the JTWC, not too bad!

TPXS10 PGTW 101810

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)

B. 10/1730Z

C. 16.0S

D. 61.0E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D2.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. A SMALL MG SHADE EYE
MEASURING 7NM WITH A WHITE SURROUNDING RING WITH IMBEDDED COLD
DARK GREY YIELDS A DT OF 6.0. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 4.0 ONLY
BECAUSE 24HR FT YIELDED A 2.5. CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1255Z 15.7S 61.5E TRMM
10/1428Z 15.8S 61.3E SSMS


LANZETTA

[P.K.]

WTIO30 FMEE 101841
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/10 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1 S / 61.0 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 260 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/11 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 59.6 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/11 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 52.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 50.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
120H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0
GIOVANNA HAS UNDERGONE EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING SINCE THE AFTERNOON WITH
IMPRESSIVE MICRO-WAVE SIGNATURE OF SMALL SIZED EYEWALL. THIS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY CONTINUING.
THIS VERY FAST INTENSIFICATION MAY HAVE RESULTED IN A SHIFTING OF
PREVAILING STEERING FLOW ABOVE 500HPA. WITH A MORE NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SHAPE OF THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE UPPER HIGH RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE STORM. THIS MAY RESULT INTO A MORE
MERIDIAN-LIKE TRAJECTORY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED, WITH A SHARPER TURN AFTERWARDS WHEN THE BAROMETRIC COL TO
THE SOUTH WILL WITHDRAW TOWARDS THE EAST BY TAU 30H.
THEN THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF HIGH
PRESSURES SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO
SATURDAY WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT INTENSITY SHOULD
PROBABLY FLUCTUATE WITHIN THIS PERIOD.
ON SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ON MONDAY AND AFTER, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE THE
LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, AT THE END OF NIGHT
BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER
SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATION.=

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.0S 61.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 61.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 16.4S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.7S 57.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.8S 56.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.9S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.6S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9S 46.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.5S 41.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 60.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AROUND A PIN-HOLE EYE
WHILE MAINTAINING A HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL AND COMPACT BANDING. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION DISPLAYS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VERY
EFFICIENT POLEWARD CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED OVER THE
EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM FMEE (115 KTS), PGTW (115 KTS)
AND KNES (90 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 12S IS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN A DIFFLUENT
ZONE UNDER A RIDGE AXIS. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, AN EXTENSION OF A SECONDARY STR
CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER MOZAMBIQUE WILL ASSUME STEERING. THE
TRANSITION WILL BE SEAMLESS AND WILL MERELY CAUSE A SLIGHT
FLATTENING OF THE FORECAST TRACK. GIOVANNA WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR AND EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER
TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

[P.K.]

T7.0 would put this around 120/125kts.

TPXS10 PGTW 102141

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)

B. 10/1900Z

C. 16.3S

D. 60.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OFF WHITE EYE WITH
SURROUNDING RING WHITE PLUS A PARTIAL BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A
DT OF 7.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5 DUE TO THE 24HR FT YIELDING A 3.0.
PT YIELDS A 6.5 WITH HATCHED PARTS OF THE PATTERN BEING WHITE
OR COLDER. CONVECTION IS DEEP WITH A COLD DARK GREY RING
MEASURING 20NM AROUND THE STORM. CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1718Z 16.0S 61.0E MMHS


LANZETTA

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared ... very impressive cyclone

[Chacor]

Intense strengthening has curtailed, according to MF. 945 hPa, 95 kt.

WTIO20 FMEE 110017
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 11/02/2012
AT
0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/9 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 11/02/2012 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA) 945 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 60.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 20 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM
THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 115 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2012/02/11 AT 12 UTC:
17.8 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2012/02/12 AT 00 UTC:
18.4 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

[CrazyC83]

This is the kind of storm you want Recon for. How strong is it? I'd guess, with a very low degree of confidence, 130 kt (1-min). Pressure is probably higher than the intensity suggests being such a tiny storm, somewhere around 935mb I would think.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 120 kt

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 110042
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/11 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 60.1 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 210 SW: 190 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/11 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 59.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/12 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 57.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/13 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/15 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 44.6 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
120H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0- ET CI=6.0
LAST AVALAIBLE INFRA-RED SATELLITE PICTURES DEPICT A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WITH A WARMING OF THE
CLOUDS TOPS AND A THE COOLING OF THE EYE.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH SUBTR
OPICAL RIDGE (400HPA) SITUATED IN THE SOUTH-EAST.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT WILL APPROACH FROM THE BAROMETRIC COL IN IT
S SOUTH, AND AFTER TAU 24H IT SHOULD CURVE WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE DEEP HIGH PRESSURE
CELL SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE DURING THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS, THA
NKS TO A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ON SUNDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE THIS OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON TH
E NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SO SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE T
HE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, AT THE END OF NIGHT BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.THE
RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOUR
ABLE ENVIRONMENT.

[HURAKAN]

wow, rapidly went into an EWRC

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 60.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 60.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 17.5S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.6S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.6S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.8S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 20.8S 43.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 22.7S 38.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP, HIGHLY-SYMMETRICAL AND VERY COMPACT
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A 15-NM DIAMETER EYE. RECENT WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE ANIMATION DISPLAYS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A VERY
EFFICIENT POLEWARD CHANNEL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED OVER THE
EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM FMEE, PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 12S IS IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN A DIFFLUENT ZONE UNDER A RIDGE AXIS. IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12,
AN EXTENSION OF A SECONDARY STR CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL WILL ASSUME STEERING. THE TRANSITION WILL CAUSE A SLIGHTLY
MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC GIOVANNA WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MADAGASCAR AND EXITING INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL JUST BEFORE TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE
LEFT OUTLIER AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[Chacor]

EWRC?

WTIO30 FMEE 110639

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)

2.A POSITION 2012/02/11 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 59.4 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL
FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :7 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/11 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 58.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/15 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+ ET CI=5.5+

LAST AVALAIBLE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY SHOW AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. LAST TRMM IMAGERY SHOW A STILL VIGOROUS INNER EYEWALL

SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARDS UNTIL THE END OF THE NIGHT ... A
TRANSCIENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ... ON THIS TIMEFRAME, A MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS
TRACK IS STILL POSSIBLE. TONIGHT, WITH THE REBUILDING OF THE DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE CELL SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR, A DUE WESTWARDS MOTION
IS STILL EXPECTED.

THE CURRENT ERC SHOULD CAUSE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ... BUT WITHIN
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AN
INTENSE ONE AND COULD SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGHEN AGAIN ..

ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT ... BUT
GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY
THAT TIME.

THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.

UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR
(TAMATAVE AREA) SHOULD CONTINU TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS SYSTEM.=

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[Typhoon Hunter]

Stunning system. Certainly looks like an EWRC has been in the works. Reminds me a bit of Muifa in the Wpac last year which went utterly beserk but only held peak intensity for a very brief time. Watch out Madagascar!

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 111235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 59.0 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 160
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/12 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/02/13 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/14 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, INLAND
72H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 46.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/15 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5 ET CI=5.5-
AVERAGE 6 HOURLY AND 3 HOURLT DT ARE RESPECTIVELY AT 4.5 AND 4.3 WITH EYEPATTERN ON ENHENCED IR IMAGERY WITH AN OVERALL PRESENTATION LESS
IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON. GIOVANNA IS DOWGRADED AS A "SIMPLE"
TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT REMAINS A POWERFULL SYSTEM.
GLOBAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH ... AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH, WELL SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AND ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
BAROMETRIC COL, IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
WEAKNESS APPEAR NOT TOO STRONG ENOUGH TO TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
POLEWARDS TRACK. LATER TONIGHT, A DEEP MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILT TO HE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD STEERED THE SYSTEM ON A
GRADUALLY FASTER WESTWARDS TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
GIVEN THAT THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION SHOULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING, SOME OSCILLATIONS ON THE TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST ARE
STILL LIKELY ... BUT IT APPEARS VERY UNLIKELY THAT THEY COULD PERSIST
AFTER THAT TO DIRECTLY THREATEN MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION.
THE CURRENT ERC SHOULD CAUSE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ... AND IT STILL
APEARS THAT WE ARE ON THE WEAKENING TREND OS THE CYCLE .. HOWEVER
WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGHEN AGAIN ..
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON
THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR MONDAY NIGHT ... BUT GIOVANNA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS AND POWERFUL SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. THE
PREDILECTED LANDFALL AREA AT THIS TIME IS LOCATED BETWEEN FENERIVE
NORTHWARD TO MAHANORO SOUTHWARD INCLUDING THE CITY OF TAMATAVE.
THE RESIDUAL CENTRE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL ON WEDNESDAY WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD
TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
UNHABITANTS OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS AND EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR (SPECIALLY PEOPLE WHO LIVED WITHIN THE THREATEN AREA
CITED PREVIOUSLY) SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DANGEROUS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

we can only hope it never completes the EWRC before hitting Madagascar