WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[Infdidoll]

Interesting. So I take it JTWC might be basing their storm predictions on the SSTs that the storm could pass through and intensify? I wish I knew more about how the euro calculates their predictions and if they take surface temps into account. I don't know...That's the only thing I can think of as to why JTWC predicts it this way. Hey, at least it isn't a boring situation to watch.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yap, they sure keep it interesting I suppose. This storm has been such a slow starter though, unless it fires up something dramatic I just dont see it anything as big as JT is looking for. Thats me though.. We will see!

[dexterlabio]

Euro keeps it weak.....i cant even see any significant trace of a TC in the latest run. let's see whether GFS or ECMWF will get this right. "track-wise", i think there's no question about the recurve scenario as both GFS and Euro have suggested, but the point of recurve is the issue now.

[dexterlabio]

i have problems locating the center earlier but then there was a sudden burst of convection and I supposed the center is somewhere near that. what are your thoughts?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here we go again, looking like utter crap again!


TPPN10 PGTW 111207

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (S OF GUAM)

B. 11/1132Z

C. 9.2N

D. 144.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


NEWCOMER

Interesting. So I take it JTWC might be basing their storm predictions on the SSTs that the storm could pass through and intensify? I wish I knew more about how the euro calculates their predictions and if they take surface temps into account. I don't know...That's the only thing I can think of as to why JTWC predicts it this way. Hey, at least it isn't a boring situation to watch.

The Euro would most definitely take into account sea surface temps, you can have all the hottest water in the world but it's useless if atmospheric conditions aren't supportive for development! It's been mentioned that JTWC are known for over egging intensity forecasts and making tracks closer to US military interests in Wpac during their initial warnings, no doubt so no-one can say, "oh we didn't know a storm was coming!"

[cycloneye]

TPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 09.1N 145.0E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1008HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 121200UTC 09.5N 142.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[dexterlabio]

it really looked crap a while ago but that convection building up near the center right now may give it some chances, i think..like what it did yesterday when it looked all dried up.

[francis327]

Here goes along with the windshear analysis and the track forecast with JTWC data.

Higher windshear up north might making this little one a hard time though SST is condusive. Thoughts?

[cycloneye]

Those who live in NE Luzon are now in the cone,and those who are in Okinawa are almost in it on the 15:00z warning by JTWC.

[euro6208]

it's hard to believe that this depression is just south of us but everything here is normal! no rain, wind or clouds present. that tells you how small this storm is...

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 111315
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP052012
1100 PM CHST MON JUN 11 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IN EASTERN YAP STATE MOVING GRADUALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE.

AT 1000 PM CHST...1200Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 05W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

50 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FARAULEP
285 MILES EAST OF FAIS
350 MILES EAST OF ULITHI
450 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
285 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 MPH...AND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT SLOWING OF
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AND REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CHST POSITION...9.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
144.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM CHST TUESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 500 AM CHST.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

remains a 25 knot depression...

WTPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 9.6N 144.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 144.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 9.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 10.2N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.8N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.3N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.5N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.2N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 144.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN



very interesting prognostic reasoning about future *GUCHOL*.



WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
A STRUGGLING SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE
WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS WEAKENED AND IT HAS
BECOME INCREASINGLY EVIDENT THAT THE PRIMARY LLCC WAS LOCATED TO THE
EAST. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 110426Z AMSU IMAGE AND A
111156Z METOPA IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, THE 111156Z ASCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
SUPPORTING (ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS) THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MARGINAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH. TD 05W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS FROM GUAM, KOROR AND YAP INDICATE DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AND SUPPORT THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE UKMET TRACKER, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION
OF THE STR, AS VERIFIED BY RECENT SOUNDINGS, THIS SCENARIO IS
UNLIKELY, THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED LEFT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FAVORING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS DEPICTED BY GFDN AND THE
ECMWF MODEL. THERE IS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST DUE TO THE POORLY-DEFINED NATURE OF THE LLCC AND THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. IN GENERAL, THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SLOW BUT
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 24-36 THEN A SHARPER INTENSIFICATION
TREND AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
BEGINS TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 72. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE RE-CURVE
POINT ALTHOUGH, BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE MIDLATITUDE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH, TD 05W WILL RE-CURVE CLOSE TO OKINAWA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IN THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO SINCE THE WESTERN STR
IS WEAK AND HAS RETROGRADED WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT, STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED LEFT
OF CONSENSUS TO OFF-SET THE UNLIKELY UKMET SOLUTION, FAVORING THE
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. AT THIS TIME, THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT
90 KNOTS BUT THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY, AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY.//
NNNN

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1007.4mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.6 2.7 2.7

Weakening Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

Those who live in NE Luzon are now in the cone,and those who are in Okinawa are almost in it on the 15:00z warning by JTWC.

It should be pointed out that JTWC's cone is different from JMA's or NHC's in the sense that the cone is average error + forecast 34-knot wind radius. Other centres only use average error as the cone.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey all, I just posted a video on TD05 plus some other stuff in the west pac. Just sharing my thoughts here but its nothing official. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_J76fPHU3k&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]

[euro6208]

big burst of convection!



this system has everything going for it to intensify...divergence, convergence, 850 mb vorticity, low wind shear plus high sst and now heat potential...

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 111800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111800UTC 09.2N 144.6E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 121800UTC 09.9N 141.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[cycloneye]

Looks much better.

[cycloneye]

21:00z Warning by JTWC. Part of Taiwan and Okinawa are now in the new forecast track cone.

WTPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 9.6N 144.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 144.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 10.1N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 10.5N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 11.4N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.0N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.3N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.8N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 144.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
SOUTH OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY AND INTERPOLATED FROM A
111533Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A BAND
OF DRY, CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS INHIBITING
OUTFLOW. THERE IS WEAK OUTFLOW INTO A FILLING TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, EAST-WEST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. UPPER-AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM GUAM, KOROR AND YAP INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW AND
SUPPORT THE MODEL DEPICTION OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING. HOWEVER, THE UKMO MODEL
REMAINS THE OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY DUE
TO THE ANALYZED STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A
SLOW BUT GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 24-36 THEN A SHARPER
INTENSIFICATION TREND AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES AND OUTFLOW INCREASES
INTO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 05W IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND
BEGINS TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 72. AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AROUND TAU 72 AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE RE-CURVE POINT. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES LESS OF A POLEWARD TURN IN THE FINAL TAUS. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IN THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO SINCE THE WESTERN STR
IS WEAK AND HAS RETROGRADED WEST DUE TO PERSISTENT, STRONG EASTERLY
FLOW OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED LEFT
OF CONSENSUS TO OFF-SET THE UNLIKELY UKMET SOLUTION, FAVORING A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.//
NNNN

[senorpepr]

The 21Z JTWC bulletin keeps tropical storm force winds just N of Fais, Ulithi, and Yap:

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 120000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 120000UTC 09.6N 143.7E POOR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 130000UTC 10.0N 141.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[dexterlabio]

Euro is like saying this is gonna crash and burn. But GFS remains consistent and has it track closer to Taiwan. Either way it would be interesting to see if this is gonna be another monster or a bummer.



And it seems JTWC will have a TS in their next warning...

TPPN10 PGTW 120037

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (S OF GUAM)

B. 11/2332Z

C. 9.9N

D. 143.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. LARGE 86NM IRREGULAR CDO
YIEIDS A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS A 2.5. PT YIELDS A 3.0. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
11/1947Z 9.8N 144.1E SSMS


LANZETTA