EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,look at the RI SHIP 00z forecast. I never have seen this kind of very elevated RI probabilities before.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

The very low shear forecast is why of this RI forecast.

SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 7 4 6 13 10 12 9

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

[Kingarabian]

Oh my god, a 63% chance for a 45kts increase...

[Zanthe]

Hey folks,look at the RI SHIP 00z forecast. I never have seen this kind of very elevated RI probabilities before.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

The very low shear forecast is why of this RI forecast.

SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 7 4 6 13 10 12 9

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

Dear lord. O_O

[Yellow Evan]

Hey folks,look at the RI SHIP 00z forecast. I never have seen this kind of very elevated RI probabilities before.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

The very low shear forecast is why of this RI forecast.

SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 7 4 6 13 10 12 9

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

Holy cow, are you kidding me?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS
TIME...THE BANDING STRUCTURE ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES
WAS IMPRESSIVE. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IN THIS
ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING
APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL KEEP EMILIA FROM INTENSIFYING
DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR PERHAPS EARLIER...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX INCREASED FROM A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY TO A 73 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE
CENTER...WHICH IS COMMONLY AN INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION AT A
FASTER PACE.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE GOOD NEWS FOR
MEXICO IS THAT THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STEERING
FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
GOOD CLIP WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. SINCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...EMILIA WILL
PROBABLY DECREASE SOME IN FORWARD SPEED. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED
STEERING FLOW...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT VERY TIGHT...BUT STILL ALL
MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE EMILIA WESTWARD OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS
NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 10.7N 103.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 11.3N 105.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 12.0N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 12.8N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 16.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Only 85 knt peak? Rly? And the NHC's say there is nothing to inhibit RI. There is a 63% chance of hitting 75 knts within 24 hours according to the SHIPS model, they have it at 48 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

The good news with Emilia is that it is no threat to land.

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, only 18% chance of Cat 1 within 24 hours and less than 1% chance of becoming a Cat 5 (which I'd give a 30% chance to the first and 10% chance of the second).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

The big question is if Emilia will do the same as Daniel is doing when it reaches the longitudes (120W and beyond) and that is getting stronger despite less favorable enviroment in it's doorstep. But is almost a given that Emilia will be stronger than when Daniel arrived and passed as a cat 2 that 120W line.

[Yellow Evan]

The big question is if Emilia will do the same as Daniel is doing when it reaches the longitudes (120W and beyond) and that is getting stronger despite less favorable enviroment in it's doorstep. But is almost a given that Emilia will be stronger than when Daniel arrived and passed as a cat 2 that 120W line.

Won't be surprised if it does pull a Daniel at all.

[Cyclenall]

To put it simply, Emilia had the biggest change from 24 hours ago to now that I've seen in a developing TC. Whatever clicked on did the trick here. It went from a very tiny system to a huge cloud shield that is now starting to fade outside of the central core. The structure reminded me 8 hours ago of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 when it was a category 5 (strange huh?). The convection is not that deep yet so in that respect it humbles it. In summary it has the structure of a weak hurricane but moderate/light convection.

This certainly has major written on it but I can't put 100% on that just yet. I'm just waiting for a massive burst of convection to blow up and wrap all the way around the "CONVECTIVE RING" as the NHC puts it, to start the EI process. If it could just do that then a major is in the bag. I was hoping for a hurricane by the 3rd advisory package type deal (ultra rare) but no dice . Inner core evolution will be fascinating to watch.

Here is the "CONVECTIVE RING" as the NHC calls it:



Looks like an eyewall in a weak TS.

What were Rick's SHIP RI chances when it formed?

When I read the previous post before this, I was thinking the same thing! It was higher than the SHIPS original output for Emilia but read the NHC advisories...I think I remember something like 90% at one point.

Hurricane Rick's RI chances were as follows (higher than 05E):

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.8 times the sample mean(11.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 71% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 66% is 12.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

Where did this come from? Why is the last line missing?

Oh, so 5E is not a Rick.

It is now .

Hey folks,look at the RI SHIP 00z forecast. I never have seen this kind of very elevated RI probabilities before.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

The very low shear forecast is why of this RI forecast.

SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 7 4 6 13 10 12 9

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

I thought the first one was impressive, this one is just ludicrous!!!!! I've never seen it that high either and that is now overall higher than Hurricane Rick's numbers which I didn't expect to see in a very long time. Its basically a given at this point. 63% for explosive intensification...unreal to see 18.5 times the sample mean, off the charts.

This one really made me laugh, so off its comical.

BTW, the floaters stopped working for both Epac TCs.

[Kingarabian]

Just use this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

THE INNER CORE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW
PATTERNS HAVE BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
CYCLONE GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN MODEST EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO
ITS EAST AND THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL
LOCATED TO ITS WEST. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN...UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE AND ARE NOW AT T3.0/45 KT. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE EMILIA HAS
BEEN WOBBLING ALMOST DUE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. TRENDING
THROUGH THESE WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE
MOTION OF 285/12 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS STILL PLACES THE INITIAL POSITION SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST WHILE THE
NOGAPS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD.
THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ONLY GRADUALLY TURN EMILIA WESTWARD AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MASSIVE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES
BETWEEN THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW...WHICH WOULD
GENERALLY FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING A 66 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 30-KT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE
ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL PINCHING EFFECT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER 24
HOURS...HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
IMPROVE AS DANIEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WEAKEN AND NO LONGER
IMPINGES ON EMILIA. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
EMILIA TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD
NOT SURPRISE ME IF EMILIA BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT
TIME. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 10.7N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 11.4N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 12.1N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 12.8N 111.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 13.5N 113.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 15.7N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 16.5N 124.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Cyclenall]

Now the NRL doesn't even have Emilia up . Only the backup.

The NHC strengthened it but had some odd things to say in the discussion, I guess Daniel has now captured their hearts:

THE INNER CORE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW
PATTERNS HAVE BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE
CYCLONE GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN MODEST EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO
ITS EAST AND THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL
LOCATED TO ITS WEST. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN...UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE AND ARE NOW AT T3.0/45 KT. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM TAFB
AND SAB REMAIN A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

I didn't think I would have ever expected to see the word "pinched" so many times in a NHC discussion . Saying its in an unfavorable environment shear wise in the short term was very unexpected and I don't see too many signs that will hamper RI or EI (Bud 2006). I like the track more south. Next: "ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY" What!?! It was the most well-defined inner core I've ever seen in a 35-40 knot TS. Can't check for new scans since the NRL doesn't show Emilia on there currently. Next: "...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF EMILIA BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME." After Daniel, of course . I see the intensity is creeping upwards so I know the NHC is just dying to get up to 100 knots, some products are holding them back.

On a side note, the new SHIPS RI Index is slightly lower than the previous one .

Just use this:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/

"I think I just found something good" <-- Me.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Well...looking through the latest, RI may begin within the next 6 to 10 hours. I really don't have time to work with (sitting in an airport), so I'm just going to throw a quick guess out there...90 knots by 11 am tomorrow morning (going to start the 24 hours at 11 am). We'll see how close I am!

Could a mod add the disclaimer? Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Hey King,what do you make of the 00z Euro scenario of Emilia getting close to Hawaii still as a strong cyclone?

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak on latest update has Emilia a little bit stronger.

08/1145 UTC 11.0N 105.1W T3.0/3.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific

[RL3AO]

Thats an impressive looking developing TC. I don't see how it only has a 4% chance of reaching cat 4.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track increase the winds to 45kts.

EP, 05, 2012070812, , BEST, 0, 110N, 1053W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest