EPAC: HECTOR - Post-Tropical

[Zanthe]

Why don't they issue a watch or a warning for the small island that's in the projected path?

[CrazyC83]

Why don't they issue a watch or a warning for the small island that's in the projected path?

Not inhabited or developed at all.

[tolakram]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socorro_Island

Naval Station. Looking at it through google maps, satellite view. Looks like it would be a fun place to explore.

[AJC3]

IIRC Hurricane Linda moved over that island at near its peak (Cat 5) intensity.

[hurricanes1234]

I thought there was a weak El Nino in place. So then, where's all this shear coming from?

I know this may be an odd question but what is the rarest type of wind shear that can affect hurricanes? Rarest, as in the shear that is least commonly seen affecting hurricanes.

For example: Southeasterly shear, Northerly shear, Northwesterly shear, etc.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 121448
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012

HECTOR IS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO
THE EAST OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH
45 KT AT 1200 UTC...BUT GIVEN THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN
EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40
KT. ALTHOUGH HECTOR IS OVER WARM WATER...THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING
MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND
INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND A FEW DAYS...HECTOR IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WATERS AFTER THAT. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 3.

SATELLITE FIXES AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1140 UTC SUGGEST THAT HECTOR
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE
INITIAL MOTION...ALBEIT UNCERTAIN...IS 270/9. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF HECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND
POSITION AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 18.3N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 18.3N 111.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 18.2N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 18.3N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 18.7N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 20.3N 118.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[brunota2003]

Why don't they issue a watch or a warning for the small island that's in the projected path?

Not inhabited or developed at all.

There is a Naval Station on one of them...as far as issuing watches and warnings, it is an island owned by Mexico, so they would be the ones to ask why there are none.

[hurricanes1234]

The structure is in two pieces because of the strong shear. Just look at the exposed circulation center, it's almost as though it was never a part of Hector. Still cool though, because this is the first basin crossover storm I've tracked closely. That deep convection NEEDS to wrap around that circulation for it to strengthen. Otherwise, it will dissipate. I still find it rather odd that we have an El Nino and the shear is at 20 knots per hour. What kind of El Nino is that?

[hurricanes1234]

The structure is in two pieces because of the strong shear. Just look at the exposed circulation center, it's almost as though it was never a part of Hector. Still cool though, because this is the first basin crossover storm I've tracked closely. That deep convection NEEDS to wrap around that circulation for it to strengthen. Otherwise, it will dissipate. I still find it rather odd that we have an El Nino and the shear is at 20 knots per hour. What kind of El Nino is that?

_______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

The structure is in two pieces because of the strong shear. Just look at the exposed circulation center, it's almost as though it was never a part of Hector. Still cool though, because this is the first basin crossover storm I've tracked closely. That deep convection NEEDS to wrap around that circulation for it to strengthen. Otherwise, it will dissipate. I still find it rather odd that we have an El Nino and the shear is at 20 knots per hour. What kind of El Nino is that?

_______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Because we are Warm-Neutral, not in El Nino. While the SST's certainly resemble El-Nino conditions, the atmosphere doesn't, as you can see with the superb activity in the Atlantic Basin.

[hurricanes1234]

Struggling bigtime with that easterly wind shear. Now, cloud tops are warming fairly quickly. If that shear doesn't let up soon, Hector will become a remnant low faster than expected. Of course we won't want that to happen to a unique crossover storm, especially so early in it's development!

____________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 122033
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012

HECTOR REMAINS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW EXPOSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME EVEN MORE SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER
AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT DVORAK
DATA T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT
40 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND IT APPEARS THAT HECTOR WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
STRENGTHENING. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
LOWERED AND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IN 2 TO 3
DAYS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.

HECTOR HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 270/6. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO DECELERATE EVEN MORE AND TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THOSE
MODELS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 18.1N 110.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 18.1N 112.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 18.9N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.3N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I imagine this may not be a tropical cyclone much longer.

[Shuriken]

Why don't they issue a watch or a warning for the small island that's in the projected path?

Not inhabited or developed at all.

On top of that, I'd guess probably 50% of every year's ePac tropical activity affects that island in some way, so it'd be an enormous work-load issuing advisories and updates all the time for an uninhabited speck.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 130239
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012

STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PUSH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HECTOR...LEAVING IT EXPOSED. ALTHOUGH
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING...SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 995 MB AND 25 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE
THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LEFT AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE OR
STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE SINCE SSTS ONLY
GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS THINKING IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
HECTOR IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...
IF NOT SOONER.

THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS PROVIDED A RELIABLE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 270/5. HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING HECTOR TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS SHRUNK SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION...AND LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS
AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 18.1N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 18.1N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 18.2N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 18.3N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.1N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 19.8N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT REMAINS DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED
CENTER DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500
UTC SUGGESTED THAT HECTOR COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE WEAKER THAN
ESTIMATED EARLIER...BUT SINCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
SINCE THEN...HECTOR IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM. THIS INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK SHEAR-PATTERN
ESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING HECTOR GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
LIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
TREND IN THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS HECTOR WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HECTOR IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 18.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 18.1N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.6N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.5N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.3N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[hurricanes1234]

Much better looking now than last night. The circulation is now more closed than before and cloudtops are cooling. I love the look of this storm - round and compact!

[euro6208]

weak and fishy...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
200 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012

HECTOR HAS MADE A LITTLE COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED
DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THERE IS NOW LESS SEPARATION
BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS. AN ASCAT PASS
AT 1740 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 40 KT. THIS
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH HECTOR HAS
RESTRENGTHENED TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS
UNCHANGED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
SUB-26C WATERS IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING
TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/6. A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR POSSIBLY NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT
24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS.
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE...AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT LIES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 18.3N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 18.5N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.8N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.7N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082012
800 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HECTOR HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE LARGE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WEAKENED
AND BEEN PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND BECAUSE A NEW BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS VERY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THIS TIME...HECTOR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS..HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.

AS THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT IT WAS
LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. RECENT CENTER
FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER OR
270/5 KT. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR WEAKENS...A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THE ECMWF AND GFDL
MODELS DEPICT A SHARPER AND FASTER NORTHWARD TURN IN 36-48 HOURS
THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...CLOSE TO THE HFIP
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TV15. THE NEW FORECAST IS SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.0N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.0N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 18.2N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN