ATL: INVEST 95L

[Fehize]

I'm personally hoping that it drifts a bit out into the ocean or just heads straight north. I would love so see rain here in south Texas~

That said, if it ends up to drift away towards LA, and not really form into anything larger that could sideswipe us, it'll just make my area have not even a cloud as it passes by. ;/

[fci]

JB thinks it has a chance.....

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 88/photo/1

He's been saying for days lookout Southeast US-maybe this is what he meant

LOL, he's been saying that every year at about this time, no matter what!
Oh well, he is a Pro Met so he deserves some cred I guess.

[ozonepete]

lol, fci! How true.

I'm thinking this goes orange at 8PM. It looks like an LLC has formed and it's not going inland.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Zanthe]

Probably a code orange at 11. Can you imagine if this and Helene was off the coast of, say, Texas? Two tropical systems forming back to back like this, it's amazing and pretty rare, no? In-fricking-sane.

[lester]

2. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM STAYS
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[Dean4Storms]

No sign of an LLC yet, just an MLC!

[hurricanes1234]

Why did all the convection dissipate?

[ROCK]

because it has nothing at the surface to sustain the MLC....did this last night also....

[ozonepete]

Am I the only one who sees an LLC there? Looks pretty clear to me.

[wjs3]

I dunno. Just looked at RGB...while there certainly is a lot of twisting going on, I'd expect the convection to be a lot deeper with an LLC. There's no shear (again, judging this from satellite), so I'd expect an LLC to really be firing off some deep convection...which does not seem to be the case.

What do you see?

[SouthernMet]

The reason the convection has dramatically weakened is because it has been over the same waters for 2 days with very little movement.. And yes, though convection has waned, the overall structure has better defined itself.(LLC appearing)

Stay tuned

[wjs3]

Well, OK, but if there was upwelling, there wouldn't be enough convection firing in the first place to create an LLC. Again, I dunno. Pretty impossible to tell at night. Maybe, maybe not.

[wxman57]

Am I the only one who sees an LLC there? Looks pretty clear to me.

That rotation is not at the surface, it's probably 10,000-15,000 feet up or so. No chance of it coming to Texas as an upper-level trof is digging down across Texas tomorrow/Tuesday. NW winds aloft reaching the TX coast tomorrow morning (and SW winds ahead of that) would steer anything in the NW Gulf northeastward. That also means increasing shear as the system encounters the frontal zone. An unusually strong front for August. This system does not appear to be a tropical threat.

[ozonepete]

One reason why you can have a "naked swirl" LLC without any convection in the absence of shear is dry air. It's probably taken in dry air from subsiding air coming down from the mountains just inland from the coast. It will have a battle with this for a while, but since most of the circulation is over water the whole environment should ventually moisten up. but there is pretty clearly an LLC there if you look at the RGB satellite image.

[northjaxpro]

OzonePete, the RGB image shows the low level swirl quite well just off the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

I still find it amazing that the models were able to resolve such obscure system.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just a question in case this should develop and move north to the CONUS. Have we ever had a recorded simultaneous double hit of 2 tropical cyclones on the CONUS. In other words, if 94L and 95L spun up and both made landfalls on the CONUS, has that happened before?

[psyclone]

Just a question in case this should develop and move north to the CONUS. Have we ever had a recorded simultaneous double hit of 2 tropical cyclones on the CONUS. In other words, if 94L and 95L spun up and both made landfalls on the CONUS, has that happened before?

Bonnie and Charley struck in quick succession in 2004.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Just a question in case this should develop and move north to the CONUS. Have we ever had a recorded simultaneous double hit of 2 tropical cyclones on the CONUS. In other words, if 94L and 95L spun up and both made landfalls on the CONUS, has that happened before?

Bonnie and Charley struck in quick succession in 2004.

But nothing at the same time? Like Gulf coast impact and an east coast impact on the same day?

I'm just wondering how they would split Jim Cantore in two?

[vbhoutex]

Let's take the discussion back to 95L please.