ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4001 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:27 pm

swbamacane wrote:Well looks like the GFS is now the outlier!!! Hmmmm


could this be a rare erroneous run of the GFS because with the 500mb level on it, it IMO would go more towards the panhandle

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4002 Postby Stormlover2012 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:27 pm

I mean I am a euro lover no doubt about it but also I am realistic, this yr the gfs has done the best and the euro has struggled little bit,I mean as right now NHC has been going with the gfs alot this yr so u can't say the gfs is a outlier
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#4003 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:27 pm

Iono, this is so back and forth strength wise ..AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHY! Which to trust.. 0z? or 12z.. I mean look at this ridiculousness
AUG 23rd 00Z landfall
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AUG 23rd 12z landfall

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AUG 24 00Z landfall
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AUG 24 12z landfall
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AUG 25 00z landfall
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AUG 25 12z landfall

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4004 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:29 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
swbamacane wrote:Well looks like the GFS is now the outlier!!! Hmmmm


could this be a rare erroneous run of the GFS because with the 500mb level on it, it IMO would go more towards the panhandle

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absolutely this is the first run of the gfs that has been outside the last 4 days on consensus.
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#4005 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:30 pm

meriland that is a good jump east for landfall this run from the euro its close to what the hrwf just did,
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Re:

#4006 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:meriland that is a good jump east for landfall this run from the euro its close to what the hrwf just did,


Agreed....I don't know if it goes this far East...but, interesting for sure.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4007 Postby swbamacane » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:36 pm

I suspect the Gfs will come back to the panhandle on the 0z run tonite if not before on the 18z. JMO
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4008 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:39 pm

12Z NOGAPS into MS/AL

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


continues due north and not ejected right of way to the NE...steered by the high and not so much trof induced...high builds right in afterwards....
Last edited by ROCK on Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4009 Postby allicat1214 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:39 pm

duris wrote:Recent tweets from New Orleans station: “@wwltvweather: Models starting at wrong spot for #Isaac.  Not initializing well. http://t.co/ovDDfbxW” and “@wwltvweather: Notice how the lines that bring it to us direct start on land, but thats not where the center is! http://t.co/CZHJI00Y”. FWIW.


Did Euro initialize well???
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#4010 Postby robbielyn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:39 pm

Well could the gfs be taking into consideration a possible center relocation or a change of track somehow related to that vort Max by the keys?
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Re:

#4011 Postby Wthrman13 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:40 pm

meriland23 wrote:Iono, this is so back and forth strength wise ..AND I HAVE NO IDEA WHY! Which to trust.. 0z? or 12z.. I mean look at this ridiculousness
AUG 23rd 00Z landfall
http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/7586/usaprmslmsl168e.gif

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AUG 23rd 12z landfall

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/4510/usaprmslmsl168a.gif

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AUG 24 00Z landfall
http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/4585/usaprmslmsl144f.gif

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AUG 24 12z landfall
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/2870/usaprmslmsl120k.gif

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AUG 25 00z landfall
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2870/usaprmslmsl120k.gif

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AUG 25 12z landfall

http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/5877/usaprmslmsl096p.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


Be careful with interpretation here. There are a couple things to keep in mind: 1) Note that some of those runs valid at that time have the center already inland, and thus show a higher central pressure just for that reason. 2) The ECMWF, though it has a relatively high resolution, still doesn't have enough to properly resolve a tropical cyclone inner core, nor do the other global models (although they are approaching that capability with time). There could be other effects such as numerical grid-scale issues that can give unreasonable central pressures, etc.

So, when evaluating a TC's presentation in the global model fields, don't focus too much on the details such as the model predicted minimum central pressure, but rather on larger scale features such as the packing of the isobars, the size of the circulation, whether the circulation is strengthening or weakening in the model, what the upper level shear profile looks like, and so on.

My take on this is that the global models have trended toward showing a strengthening and tightening system once Isaac moves into the central Gulf, which means that they are in general agreement that conditions should be favorable for strengthening there, perhaps significant strengthening. Beyond that, we have no skill in forecasting exactly how much.

*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quote

EDIT: Ooops, my bad southerngale...
Last edited by Wthrman13 on Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#4012 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:40 pm

The GFS has been one (or more) step ahead of the Euro the entire time it feels like. I have to wonder if the Euro will go back West a little at 0z, especially if the GFS holds at 18z.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4013 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:41 pm

Issac would track further right as a major hurricane, notice the Deep layer BAM is about 100 miles east of the Shallow layer BAM. The new models are now closer to the HWRF track which had Issac a strong storm earlier.

Image

We are getting down to less than 5 days before landfall and the Baroclinical environment has been extensively sampled by the G IV missions. Still unknown is exactly where Isaac will stack up north of Cuba and how much he will intensify given the proximity to land.

I don't think we should be giving the all clear to south Florida yet as even if there is a 10% chance of a rapidly intensifying Isaac following the BAMD the consequences could be disastrous.

18Z BAM suite appears to be modeling a stronger ridge up near the gulf coast.
Last edited by Nimbus on Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4014 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:42 pm

:yesno: < kind of what gfs and euro have been doing with eachother as of lately.. IMO
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4015 Postby allicat1214 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:43 pm

meriland23 wrote::yesno: < kind of what gfs and euro have been doing with eachother as of lately.. IMO


Did the latest run of each initialize at the same point, or at least at the best point when they each began??
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4016 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:47 pm

allicat1214 wrote:
meriland23 wrote::yesno: < kind of what gfs and euro have been doing with eachother as of lately.. IMO


Did the latest run of each initialize at the same point, or at least at the best point when they each began??


Well, here is 12z now at 00hr

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12z yesterday at 24 hr

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12z 23rd at 48 hr

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that is pretty impressive
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4017 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:51 pm

Model roundup!

Today's 12Z runs:
Canadian - MSY
GEFS mean - MS coast
GFS - MS/AL border
GFDL and UK - Destin
ECMWF - PCB-AQQ
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4018 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:56 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Model roundup!

Today's 12Z runs:
Canadian - MSY
GEFS mean - MS coast
GFS - MS/AL border
GFDL and UK - Destin
ECMWF - PCB-AQQ



wheres the NOGAPS? MS/AL border.... :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4019 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:01 pm

Looks like the 18z BAMs shifted west quite a bit towards Alabama and Mississippi. I don't know why the 12z GFS isn't updated on this map yet though. Does anyone think we'll see an adjustment in track at 5pm from the NHC based off the latest models? IMO they should shift the track a little closer to PNS.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots
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#4020 Postby meriland23 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 2:02 pm

It is narrowing it down me thinks..

Image
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