ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 070138
XXAA 57018 99169 70825 04562 99995 27211 20508 00547 ///// /////
92642 23004 22004 85379 19601 01002 88999 77999
31313 09608 80126
61616 AF303 0905A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 SPL 1694N08247W 0128 MBL WND 22006 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22504
994843 WL150 21507 084 REL 1693N08247W 012618 SPG 1693N08247W 012
730 =
XXBB 57018 99169 70825 04562 00995 27211 11850 19601 22843 18600
21212 00995 20508 11854 34001 22843 03503
31313 09608 80126
61616 AF303 0905A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 SPL 1694N08247W 0128 MBL WND 22006 AEV 20802 DLM WND 22504
994843 WL150 21507 084 REL 1693N08247W 012618 SPG 1693N08247W 012
730 =
;

[littlevince]

Just to say, if needed, posting observations or graphics, i'm available.

thanks littlevince. At 11 I will be letting Macrocane take over and he had offered to HDOBS. Maybe you could help him then? Could you guys talk and see what works for you?

Ok, I talk to him

[Sanibel]

Recon: 996 Steady

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070148
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 27 20120807
013900 1632N 08202W 8425 01543 0075 +150 +150 200042 043 042 013 01
013930 1631N 08201W 8430 01542 0076 +150 +150 197038 040 039 011 01
014000 1630N 08200W 8432 01542 0073 +160 +160 196037 038 038 007 01
014030 1629N 08159W 8433 01541 0074 +150 +150 196036 038 036 009 01
014100 1628N 08158W 8429 01547 0073 +164 +162 198035 036 035 006 00
014130 1626N 08157W 8430 01545 0073 +165 +161 197034 035 035 007 00
014200 1625N 08156W 8429 01549 0078 +160 +160 198033 033 035 007 01
014230 1624N 08155W 8430 01550 0079 +160 +160 197032 033 035 008 01
014300 1623N 08154W 8430 01550 0078 +160 +160 196031 032 034 009 01
014330 1622N 08153W 8429 01552 0081 +160 +160 197029 030 033 006 01
014400 1621N 08152W 8429 01552 0079 +160 +160 199028 030 037 010 01
014430 1620N 08151W 8420 01562 0082 +160 +160 201031 033 037 010 01
014500 1619N 08150W 8433 01551 0084 +160 +160 192030 031 036 009 01
014530 1618N 08149W 8428 01558 0083 +160 +160 192028 029 031 005 01
014600 1616N 08147W 8431 01554 0083 +165 +160 197028 028 030 003 00
014630 1615N 08146W 8426 01559 0084 +165 +159 197028 029 029 003 00
014700 1614N 08145W 8432 01558 0084 +167 +154 197028 028 027 004 03
014730 1614N 08144W 8428 01563 0087 +166 +152 190027 028 /// /// 03
014800 1616N 08143W 8432 01557 0084 +168 +149 185027 028 029 001 00
014830 1618N 08143W 8429 01557 0083 +167 +151 183030 030 030 003 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

First pass was with lowest pressure of 995 mbs.

URNT12 KNHC 070146
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/01:26:10Z
B. 16 deg 55 min N
082 deg 28 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 40 kt
E. 285 deg 12 nm
F. 011 deg 34 kt
G. 285 deg 12 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 18 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1524 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0905A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 01:30:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 01:30:20Z
Good banding to the south
Max outbound SWS 46kts at 01:30:30Z

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 070146
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/01:26:10Z
B. 16 deg 55 min N
082 deg 28 min W
C. 850 mb 1385 m
D. 40 kt
E. 285 deg 12 nm
F. 011 deg 34 kt
G. 285 deg 12 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 18 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1524 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0905A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 01:30:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT SE QUAD 01:30:20Z
Good banding to the south
Max outbound SWS 46kts at 01:30:30Z
;

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070158
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 28 20120807
014900 1620N 08143W 8428 01558 0085 +165 +155 181031 031 031 004 00
014930 1622N 08142W 8431 01554 0085 +162 +158 177031 032 031 004 00
015000 1624N 08142W 8432 01554 0085 +164 +159 175029 032 029 005 00
015030 1625N 08142W 8429 01557 0083 +164 +157 174030 031 029 004 00
015100 1627N 08141W 8429 01555 0083 +165 +153 173031 032 030 005 00
015130 1629N 08141W 8428 01558 0083 +165 +152 174032 032 031 005 00
015200 1631N 08140W 8429 01556 0083 +165 +150 172033 034 031 005 00
015230 1633N 08140W 8431 01553 0084 +165 +149 169034 034 032 005 00
015300 1635N 08139W 8430 01554 0084 +165 +150 166035 035 032 004 00
015330 1637N 08139W 8429 01557 0083 +165 +148 165035 036 033 004 00
015400 1638N 08139W 8430 01555 0084 +165 +146 166035 036 033 004 00
015430 1640N 08138W 8431 01553 0083 +164 +159 166035 036 035 003 00
015500 1642N 08138W 8433 01551 0084 +160 +160 167036 038 035 004 01
015530 1644N 08137W 8426 01558 0084 +164 +151 166038 039 036 003 00
015600 1646N 08137W 8432 01555 0084 +164 +157 165037 039 036 003 00
015630 1648N 08137W 8429 01557 0084 +165 +146 164039 039 035 002 00
015700 1650N 08136W 8429 01558 0084 +163 +155 161040 040 034 003 00
015730 1652N 08136W 8432 01553 0083 +164 +155 158039 040 032 003 00
015800 1653N 08135W 8429 01556 0085 +160 +157 157038 038 032 004 00
015830 1655N 08135W 8432 01553 0086 +160 +159 156038 039 033 003 00
$$
;

[artist]

I'm back on now...had a server shut down for a company I work for. It's back online and all's well.

I believe MAcrocane and littlevince will be taking over at 11 for us.

[Weatherfreak000]

Notice it's stabilized it's internal pressure? That's a good sign. I can't be so sure, but it looks almost like Ernie is drawing moisture in from that northeast band of convection.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070207
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 29 20120807
015900 1657N 08135W 8430 01556 0083 +164 +162 152039 040 031 003 00
015930 1659N 08134W 8434 01552 0085 +162 +159 152038 040 032 003 00
020000 1701N 08134W 8424 01560 0083 +158 +155 153039 042 038 009 01
020030 1703N 08133W 8429 01555 0084 +160 +160 144037 041 040 005 01
020100 1705N 08133W 8429 01557 0083 +160 +160 144038 040 047 009 01
020130 1706N 08133W 8439 01545 0087 +160 +160 148035 037 045 010 01
020200 1708N 08132W 8426 01563 0086 +164 +163 140039 041 040 005 00
020230 1710N 08132W 8417 01572 0089 +159 +154 142044 045 038 003 00
020300 1712N 08131W 8429 01559 0085 +167 +153 146045 047 038 004 00
020330 1714N 08131W 8432 01556 0085 +168 +149 143043 044 036 003 00
020400 1715N 08131W 8432 01555 0085 +168 +153 143042 046 037 003 00
020430 1717N 08130W 8427 01563 0087 +167 +149 145039 040 038 003 00
020500 1719N 08130W 8430 01559 0087 +169 +149 148043 044 038 002 00
020530 1721N 08129W 8429 01560 0088 +170 +146 147044 044 037 002 00
020600 1723N 08129W 8430 01562 0091 +165 +151 146044 045 036 004 00
020630 1725N 08128W 8429 01563 0091 +165 +152 147044 044 036 002 00
020700 1726N 08128W 8432 01561 0091 +166 +153 146046 046 038 002 00
020730 1728N 08128W 8431 01562 0090 +168 +156 145048 050 039 004 00
020800 1730N 08127W 8431 01563 0090 +168 +161 142050 050 039 004 00
020830 1732N 08127W 8432 01564 0089 +170 +160 141051 052 038 004 00
$$

[Sanibel]

It's trading-off intensification for fighting unfavorable conditions.

[Macrocane]

I'm back on now...had a server shut down for a company I work for. It's back online and all's well.

I believe MAcrocane and littlevince will be taking over at 11 for us.

Yep, I can take HDOB's

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's trading-off intensification for fighting unfavorable conditions.

What unfavorable conditions?

[Sanibel]

My guess is Nino air and strange subsidence.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070218
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 30 20120807
020900 1734N 08126W 8429 01565 0093 +167 +152 137054 055 038 002 00
020930 1736N 08126W 8432 01564 0096 +163 +155 137054 055 037 002 00
021000 1738N 08126W 8429 01570 0100 +162 +146 137056 057 036 002 00
021030 1739N 08125W 8430 01568 0100 +168 +122 136060 061 035 003 00
021100 1741N 08125W 8431 01569 0100 +170 +116 137061 061 036 003 00
021130 1743N 08124W 8429 01572 0099 +172 +115 135059 060 037 003 00
021200 1745N 08124W 8426 01576 0102 +170 +113 133059 060 035 004 00
021230 1747N 08124W 8429 01576 0102 +172 +112 131059 060 036 003 00
021300 1749N 08123W 8429 01576 0104 +170 +137 127054 058 035 004 00
021330 1750N 08123W 8429 01576 0105 +167 +137 127052 052 035 004 00
021400 1752N 08122W 8430 01575 0107 +165 +146 127051 052 036 002 00
021430 1754N 08122W 8432 01573 0105 +166 +145 127050 051 036 003 00
021500 1755N 08122W 8429 01577 0104 +168 +139 126052 052 034 003 00
021530 1757N 08121W 8427 01578 0105 +171 +137 126051 052 034 003 00
021600 1759N 08121W 8430 01576 0105 +168 +141 124051 051 034 003 00
021630 1801N 08120W 8429 01576 0109 +165 +146 122050 051 033 003 00
021700 1802N 08120W 8429 01581 0110 +162 +153 121049 049 035 002 00
021730 1804N 08120W 8419 01587 0109 +163 +157 128045 048 032 005 00
021800 1806N 08119W 8431 01577 0109 +163 +152 129046 047 030 004 00
021830 1808N 08119W 8429 01579 0106 +171 +149 131052 053 032 004 00
$$

[drezee]

movement since the first recon fix today:

N Latitude 16 55 0.00, W Longitude 82 28 0.00 (Point 1)

and N Latitude 15 34 0.00, W Longitude 79 59 0.00 (Point 2)
Azimuth from point 2 to point 1 = 299.86°

WNW, it is

[stormreader]

Intensity is holding its own, and I do think that the center may have jogged north some during this latest reorganization. Looks like it might be at about 17N now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Weatherfreak000]

Yep, Ernie is firing off convection near it's center now, looking like the next wave of intensification may have begun.


Edit: Not too sure...man Ernie is confusing..

[Air Force Met]

It's trading-off intensification for fighting unfavorable conditions.

What unfavorable conditions?

It's not totally stacked for one. The mid level center is displaced a little to the south. It also still has some dry air it's working out.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 070228
AF303 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 31 20120807
021900 1809N 08119W 8429 01581 0111 +166 +140 132054 056 031 004 00
021930 1811N 08118W 8429 01578 0108 +168 +145 133053 054 032 005 00
022000 1813N 08118W 8429 01580 0111 +167 +148 129054 055 033 005 00
022030 1815N 08117W 8428 01582 0112 +165 +144 125052 054 033 005 00
022100 1817N 08117W 8430 01581 0113 +166 +138 125053 054 031 006 00
022130 1818N 08117W 8429 01581 0112 +170 +140 127052 054 030 006 03
022200 1820N 08117W 8419 01595 0115 +169 +152 122048 050 /// /// 03
022230 1820N 08119W 8431 01583 0115 +169 +141 123048 050 /// /// 03
022300 1818N 08120W 8440 01574 0115 +165 +138 124049 049 032 006 03
022330 1817N 08120W 8427 01581 0113 +164 +147 124048 050 031 007 00
022400 1816N 08122W 8429 01580 0110 +165 +157 128048 050 033 007 00
022430 1815N 08123W 8428 01580 0111 +162 +158 127047 049 032 006 00
022500 1813N 08124W 8429 01579 0112 +160 +160 123045 047 032 005 00
022530 1812N 08125W 8429 01578 0108 +168 +152 126044 046 031 007 00
022600 1811N 08127W 8426 01581 0104 +172 +147 125046 047 027 004 00
022630 1810N 08128W 8422 01583 0112 +150 +150 120041 046 032 005 01
022700 1809N 08129W 8445 01561 0110 +150 +150 116045 046 031 008 01
022730 1807N 08130W 8429 01578 0108 +164 +155 117046 047 030 003 00
022800 1806N 08132W 8432 01575 0107 +166 +145 120046 046 032 002 00
022830 1805N 08133W 8429 01577 0107 +165 +147 122047 047 032 002 00
$$
;