ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4061 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:13 pm

Euro ensemble mean is west of the operational around the Pensacola Bay area...we are splitting hairs here at this point...Mobile to Destin still looks like the likely target zone
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4062 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:19 pm

KEEP THIS THREAD ON TOPIC PLEASE. Model discussion only, no model wars or other one line comments.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4063 Postby MGC » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:22 pm

Cone don't mean squat to me....I wanna know where the eye will cross the coast. It makes a huge difference of being in the RFQ or on the weak side. I'm out of the cone right now by a hair....but, I'm still watching the model runs....I think Isaac will hit Florida Panhandle but you never know...last big hurricane that hit my neck of the woods we were way out of the 3 day cone...you know what happened......MGC
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#4064 Postby robbielyn » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:25 pm

It said tropical watch west coast fl from bonita springs to suwanee river. But you are right baynews9 shows pasco north no watches yet
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#4065 Postby maxx9512 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:32 pm

Something I noticed when looking at the cone. Since 5pm Friday the point where Isaac crosses the Keys basically remained the same. All the talk of cone shifting one way or the other was only moved on the right side. The left side of the cone has not moved nor has the storm path over the Keys. So people in Fl. just look at that and you will see that the conditions will be the same even though now you are not in the cone. The distance between you and Isaac are still the same. A lot of wind and rain for southern Fl.
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#4066 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:36 pm

18z gfs running...no change out to 18 hours as expected
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#4067 Postby deltadog03 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:36 pm

18z GFS looks close to SO FL at hr 24
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#4068 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:38 pm

18z GFS Initialized

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18z GFS +21

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18z GFS +24

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#4069 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:39 pm

18z GFS +27

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#4070 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:40 pm

Key west at 30 hrs
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#4071 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:41 pm

ridge looks a bit stronger
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#4072 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:42 pm

18z GFS +36

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18z GFS +48

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4073 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:46 pm

Not seeing much diff from 12z gfs yet...def showing a stacked system though
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#4074 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:46 pm

This thing better start heading NNW or N in the next frame or it might be another Westward shift. I assume it will since most models show it happening but I don't know how to read those ridges on that map.
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#4075 Postby rainstorm » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:47 pm

based on that i think it will landfall 75 miles west of 12Z
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#4076 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:49 pm

Hard to see the numbers with these eyes, but there appears to be a 588 ridge right on top of Isaac....perfect conditions for ventilation and strengthening.
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Re:

#4077 Postby Blinhart » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:49 pm

rainstorm wrote:based on that i think it will landfall 75 miles west of 12Z


And if the models continue to slowly shift West as they normally do, this will get interesting for the Central GoM Coast.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4078 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:49 pm

Yikes he is deepening fast on the 18z GFS and sticking to that NW heading.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4079 Postby Jevo » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:50 pm

18z GFS +60

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#4080 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 25, 2012 4:51 pm

Appears to be gunning it for the ms coast this run. I really hope 0z gfs and euro get on the same page.
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