ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[stormreader]

I think the storm is gaining more latitude than is forecast by the major models. Could be wrong, can be deceiving. I'm looking for a landfall considerably north of Belize and well up the Yucatan penninsula.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tolakram]

Latest Loop.

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071116
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 17 20120807
110730 1856N 08547W 8435 01549 0080 +170 +170 075037 038 030 000 05
110800 1855N 08546W 8421 01559 //// +149 //// 061026 037 040 004 01
110830 1854N 08545W 8421 01558 //// +155 //// 059033 034 039 003 01
110900 1853N 08544W 8425 01551 //// +154 //// 057031 033 038 004 01
110930 1852N 08543W 8429 01547 //// +150 //// 063034 035 036 003 01
111000 1851N 08542W 8429 01548 //// +149 //// 072036 037 032 003 01
111030 1850N 08540W 8425 01553 //// +157 //// 074037 038 030 003 01
111100 1849N 08539W 8428 01545 //// +146 //// 072036 038 030 004 01
111130 1848N 08538W 8433 01538 //// +139 //// 072036 037 030 004 01
111200 1847N 08537W 8428 01546 //// +157 //// 078038 039 031 008 01
111230 1846N 08536W 8440 01531 //// +145 //// 080038 039 032 010 01
111300 1845N 08535W 8425 01545 0068 +160 +160 081035 037 026 009 01
111330 1843N 08534W 8428 01545 0070 +160 +160 083032 034 025 006 01
111400 1842N 08533W 8434 01537 0066 +160 +160 083032 032 025 004 01
111430 1841N 08532W 8425 01545 0067 +160 +160 081031 032 026 002 01
111500 1840N 08531W 8433 01539 0067 +170 +170 081030 032 024 003 01
111530 1839N 08529W 8425 01547 0066 +160 +160 081030 031 025 001 01
111600 1838N 08528W 8432 01537 0065 +160 +160 079031 031 024 002 01
111630 1837N 08527W 8431 01538 0063 +160 +160 079030 031 024 003 01
111700 1836N 08526W 8425 01543 0061 +170 +167 079031 032 023 002 00
$$

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071126
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 18 20120807
111730 1835N 08525W 8433 01537 0061 +170 +166 078030 032 023 001 00
111800 1834N 08524W 8430 01540 0058 +172 +168 077030 030 024 000 00
111830 1833N 08523W 8427 01541 0058 +170 +170 075032 033 024 000 01
111900 1832N 08522W 8428 01537 0058 +170 +170 080031 033 022 002 01
111930 1831N 08521W 8435 01530 0057 +170 +170 082030 031 022 001 01
112000 1830N 08519W 8424 01543 0060 +170 +170 076029 030 025 002 01
112030 1829N 08518W 8433 01534 0060 +170 +170 073031 032 027 002 01
112100 1827N 08517W 8425 01539 //// +159 //// 068031 032 034 004 01
112130 1826N 08516W 8431 01531 //// +144 //// 068031 032 034 011 01
112200 1825N 08515W 8429 01532 //// +147 //// 073034 037 035 010 01
112230 1825N 08514W 8436 01528 0054 +170 +170 075037 038 027 005 01
112300 1824N 08512W 8430 01530 0055 +170 +170 076037 038 027 002 01
112330 1823N 08511W 8434 01527 0051 +170 +170 075036 037 027 001 01
112400 1822N 08510W 8428 01529 0052 +170 +170 076034 037 026 001 01
112430 1821N 08509W 8429 01529 0049 +170 +170 072034 035 028 001 01
112500 1820N 08507W 8429 01527 0044 +170 +170 070032 034 026 002 01
112530 1819N 08506W 8436 01518 0046 +170 +170 070033 034 025 001 01
112600 1818N 08505W 8428 01526 0046 +170 +170 070034 035 024 001 01
112630 1817N 08504W 8426 01524 0043 +170 +170 070034 035 026 001 01
112700 1817N 08502W 8436 01517 0043 +170 +170 070034 034 025 001 01
$$

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 83.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND
WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

WTNT45 KNHC 070851
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AROUND
THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE
CYCLONE A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO REPORTED PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 63 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT. ALTHOUGH
ERNESTO STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DRY AIR...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SSTS OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND
BRINGS ERNESTO TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING WHEN THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THIS PORTION OF
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND
ON HOW MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN TURN WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE AND HAS ALSO SHIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION AND HAS BEEN
NUDGED SOUTHWARD AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 18.2N 85.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 18.8N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 08/1800Z 19.3N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 19.4N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0600Z 19.3N 96.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 19.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[stormreader]

You can see from that loop posted above that Ernesto would have to move practically due west to make landfall at Belize city and he is still at a considerable distance offshore. Unless he bends back some toward the west, I would look for a landfall further north.

Just an amateur opinion.

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071136
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 19 20120807
112730 1816N 08501W 8432 01520 0044 +170 +170 070035 035 027 001 01
112800 1815N 08500W 8424 01527 0041 +160 +160 070035 035 027 001 01
112830 1814N 08459W 8436 01514 0038 +170 +170 068036 038 026 001 01
112900 1813N 08458W 8429 01521 //// +156 //// 063037 041 031 007 01
112930 1812N 08456W 8442 01504 //// +168 //// 067037 040 031 001 01
113000 1811N 08455W 8423 01523 0032 +170 +170 068038 040 032 002 01
113030 1810N 08454W 8429 01517 0031 +170 +170 068036 037 031 001 01
113100 1809N 08453W 8438 01505 0030 +170 +170 064041 043 029 003 01
113130 1808N 08451W 8429 01514 0027 +170 +170 060040 043 031 002 01
113200 1808N 08450W 8427 01513 0027 +170 +170 064036 037 034 002 01
113230 1807N 08449W 8435 01503 0023 +170 +170 063038 040 033 003 01
113300 1806N 08448W 8431 01505 0021 +170 +170 063039 040 033 002 01
113330 1805N 08446W 8424 01511 0015 +170 +170 063038 039 033 002 01
113400 1804N 08445W 8439 01491 0010 +170 +170 062039 040 033 002 01
113430 1803N 08444W 8431 01498 0010 +180 +180 060041 042 037 002 01
113500 1802N 08443W 8424 01500 0006 +180 +180 057043 044 037 002 01
113530 1801N 08441W 8434 01486 0002 +180 +180 054043 045 038 003 01
113600 1800N 08440W 8430 01485 9991 +180 +180 051043 044 041 003 01
113630 1800N 08439W 8429 01482 9982 +186 +184 051044 044 042 004 00
113700 1759N 08437W 8433 01472 9976 +180 +180 052040 043 043 004 01
$$

[wxman57]

Recon found the center near 17.8N/84.4W. Definitely looks weaker than yesterday on microwave, and reports from the NW quadrant indicate no more than 35-40kt sfc wind.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...ERNESTO CONTINUES TO HEADS TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND
WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER DATA IS 989 MB...29.20 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THROUGH TODAY. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND MEXICO
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BELIZE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[drezee]

URNT15 KNHC 071146
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120807
113730 1758N 08436W 8424 01477 9969 +192 +177 052042 042 043 004 00
113800 1757N 08435W 8434 01461 9960 +199 +174 052043 043 041 004 00
113830 1756N 08433W 8430 01459 9954 +196 +182 048044 045 040 004 00
113900 1755N 08432W 8430 01451 9950 +188 +187 050047 048 041 005 00
113930 1755N 08431W 8428 01444 9940 +190 +190 048047 048 039 003 01
114000 1754N 08429W 8429 01435 9929 +190 +190 047044 048 039 001 01
114030 1753N 08428W 8430 01426 9916 +190 +190 050040 042 038 002 01
114100 1752N 08426W 8420 01427 9900 +204 +203 059035 039 036 002 00
114130 1752N 08425W 8428 01411 9892 +205 +198 074024 030 028 005 00
114200 1752N 08423W 8441 01396 9896 +195 +194 089018 022 025 005 00
114230 1751N 08422W 8425 01415 9901 +190 +190 100016 019 025 005 05
114300 1749N 08422W 8429 01407 9896 +190 +190 099014 015 018 004 01
114330 1748N 08423W 8422 01412 9892 +190 +190 113010 012 010 001 05
114400 1746N 08423W 8436 01397 9886 +204 +193 322003 007 011 001 00
114430 1746N 08423W 8436 01397 9892 +202 +201 291016 024 012 002 03
114500 1743N 08422W 8425 01416 9899 +202 +192 264031 035 037 003 00
114530 1742N 08421W 8441 01408 9909 +190 +190 238042 045 041 005 01
114600 1741N 08419W 8422 01438 9929 +190 +190 231046 047 044 006 01
114630 1741N 08417W 8426 01443 //// +168 //// 226049 051 050 014 01
114700 1739N 08416W 8441 01439 //// +170 //// 222050 051 048 010 01
$$


000
URNT15 KNHC 071158
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 21 20120807
114730 1738N 08415W 8425 01465 9966 +180 +180 224052 054 045 008 01
114800 1737N 08414W 8432 01468 //// +181 //// 221049 050 044 007 01
114830 1736N 08413W 8429 01475 //// +175 //// 221048 049 042 008 01
114900 1735N 08411W 8431 01478 //// +161 //// 222046 047 042 008 01
114930 1734N 08410W 8429 01485 //// +161 //// 220045 046 040 007 01
115000 1733N 08409W 8430 01488 //// +170 //// 219044 045 040 005 01
115030 1732N 08408W 8429 01492 //// +171 //// 219044 046 044 006 01
115100 1731N 08407W 8419 01507 //// +149 //// 219047 049 044 007 01
115130 1729N 08406W 8427 01499 //// +149 //// 212043 044 043 005 01
115200 1728N 08404W 8430 01501 //// +165 //// 215044 045 045 005 01
115230 1727N 08403W 8429 01504 0020 +170 +170 221046 048 045 004 01
115300 1726N 08402W 8432 01506 //// +159 //// 221049 050 042 004 01
115330 1725N 08401W 8427 01513 //// +141 //// 220050 051 041 008 01
115400 1724N 08400W 8439 01505 //// +134 //// 213049 050 041 008 01
115430 1723N 08359W 8423 01522 //// +139 //// 213047 049 041 013 01
115500 1723N 08359W 8423 01522 //// +145 //// 214046 046 040 009 01
115530 1721N 08356W 8431 01521 //// +156 //// 214044 046 038 008 01
115600 1720N 08355W 8437 01518 //// +137 //// 202039 041 044 020 01
115630 1719N 08354W 8428 01524 //// +135 //// 202040 041 044 020 01
115700 1717N 08353W 8429 01527 //// +147 //// 205041 042 041 008 01

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 84.4W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071206
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120807
115730 1716N 08352W 8429 01530 //// +140 //// 208043 043 040 009 01
115800 1715N 08351W 8428 01531 //// +141 //// 208041 042 038 010 01
115830 1714N 08350W 8430 01530 //// +155 //// 208040 040 036 009 01
115900 1713N 08349W 8430 01535 0063 +160 +160 210040 040 036 008 01
115930 1712N 08347W 8430 01534 0065 +160 +160 209040 040 035 005 01
120000 1711N 08346W 8425 01541 0066 +160 +160 206039 040 034 006 01
120030 1710N 08345W 8414 01555 //// +155 //// 207038 039 032 006 01
120100 1709N 08344W 8430 01539 //// +159 //// 206036 037 031 003 01
120130 1708N 08343W 8425 01544 //// +157 //// 210036 037 031 005 01
120200 1707N 08342W 8427 01542 0068 +160 +160 206034 035 031 003 01
120230 1705N 08341W 8433 01539 0069 +160 +160 205034 036 032 004 01
120300 1704N 08340W 8425 01549 0075 +160 +160 209031 034 034 008 01
120330 1703N 08338W 8437 01537 //// +150 //// 201029 030 037 011 05
120400 1702N 08337W 8439 01536 //// +135 //// 205034 037 031 013 05
120430 1704N 08336W 8412 01562 //// +148 //// 195036 038 /// /// 05
120500 1705N 08335W 8436 01536 //// +141 //// 194033 035 034 009 01
120530 1707N 08335W 8429 01546 //// +158 //// 191031 032 033 005 01
120600 1709N 08335W 8430 01544 //// +160 //// 190034 035 032 005 01
120630 1711N 08335W 8434 01540 //// +157 //// 192033 035 034 004 01
120700 1713N 08334W 8426 01546 //// +158 //// 188035 036 034 005 01
$$

[RL3AO]

Fun fact - Last major hurricane in the Caribbean in August was Gustav in 2008. Last major hurricane in Caribbean in September was Felix in 2007.

[drezee]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071218
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 07/11:43:50Z
B. 17 deg 47 min N
084 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1334 m
D. 43 kt
E. 313 deg 17 nm
F. 049 deg 48 kt
G. 317 deg 12 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 19 C / 1523 m
J. 21 C / 1520 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. SPIRAL BAND
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1005A ERNESTO OB 08
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NW QUAD 11:39:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 54 KT SE QUAD 11:47:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 329 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071206
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120807
115730 1716N 08352W 8429 01530 //// +140 //// 208043 043 040 009 01
115800 1715N 08351W 8428 01531 //// +141 //// 208041 042 038 010 01
115830 1714N 08350W 8430 01530 //// +155 //// 208040 040 036 009 01
115900 1713N 08349W 8430 01535 0063 +160 +160 210040 040 036 008 01
115930 1712N 08347W 8430 01534 0065 +160 +160 209040 040 035 005 01
120000 1711N 08346W 8425 01541 0066 +160 +160 206039 040 034 006 01
120030 1710N 08345W 8414 01555 //// +155 //// 207038 039 032 006 01
120100 1709N 08344W 8430 01539 //// +159 //// 206036 037 031 003 01
120130 1708N 08343W 8425 01544 //// +157 //// 210036 037 031 005 01
120200 1707N 08342W 8427 01542 0068 +160 +160 206034 035 031 003 01
120230 1705N 08341W 8433 01539 0069 +160 +160 205034 036 032 004 01
120300 1704N 08340W 8425 01549 0075 +160 +160 209031 034 034 008 01
120330 1703N 08338W 8437 01537 //// +150 //// 201029 030 037 011 05
120400 1702N 08337W 8439 01536 //// +135 //// 205034 037 031 013 05
120430 1704N 08336W 8412 01562 //// +148 //// 195036 038 /// /// 05
120500 1705N 08335W 8436 01536 //// +141 //// 194033 035 034 009 01
120530 1707N 08335W 8429 01546 //// +158 //// 191031 032 033 005 01
120600 1709N 08335W 8430 01544 //// +160 //// 190034 035 032 005 01
120630 1711N 08335W 8434 01540 //// +157 //// 192033 035 034 004 01
120700 1713N 08334W 8426 01546 //// +158 //// 188035 036 034 005 01
$$

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071216
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 23 20120807
120730 1715N 08334W 8431 01542 0070 +160 +160 192039 040 032 004 01
120800 1717N 08334W 8428 01543 0069 +160 +160 189037 040 033 005 01
120830 1719N 08333W 8430 01540 0068 +160 +160 192038 039 034 003 01
120900 1721N 08333W 8430 01540 0068 +164 +161 191040 040 035 004 00
120930 1723N 08333W 8431 01539 0070 +160 +160 190039 040 036 006 01
121000 1725N 08332W 8432 01540 0072 +160 +160 190041 042 036 006 01
121030 1727N 08332W 8433 01537 //// +144 //// 187040 042 039 015 01
121100 1729N 08332W 8427 01544 //// +131 //// 177042 043 043 016 01
121130 1731N 08331W 8431 01539 //// +133 //// 173043 044 044 014 01
121200 1733N 08331W 8429 01540 //// +147 //// 173043 044 040 010 01
121230 1735N 08331W 8429 01543 //// +153 //// 171041 043 039 007 01
121300 1737N 08330W 8427 01545 //// +149 //// 171041 042 038 006 01
121330 1739N 08330W 8433 01538 //// +140 //// 172042 043 038 007 01
121400 1741N 08330W 8431 01540 //// +148 //// 174042 043 036 007 01
121430 1742N 08329W 8433 01539 //// +144 //// 174041 043 040 015 01
121500 1744N 08329W 8425 01547 //// +139 //// 163038 040 047 019 01
121530 1746N 08329W 8425 01547 //// +135 //// 164044 045 047 019 01
121600 1748N 08328W 8432 01540 //// +136 //// 164046 047 039 009 01
121630 1750N 08328W 8428 01544 //// +139 //// 163045 046 038 009 01
121700 1752N 08328W 8426 01548 //// +141 //// 160046 047 039 010 01
$$

[artist]

thru 22

[artist]

23

[Sanibel]

Winds should catch-up to pressure. All the right things needed for a final burst are there now. If it pulls those bands in and fills in the gaps you'll know it's finally doing it.


The NHC track landfalls on the sparsely populated coast of Yucatan Mexico just north of Costa Maya.

[drezee]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071226
AF300 1005A ERNESTO HDOB 24 20120807
121730 1754N 08327W 8429 01544 //// +140 //// 156045 047 042 015 01
121800 1756N 08327W 8432 01542 //// +136 //// 154048 050 043 016 01
121830 1758N 08327W 8422 01552 //// +139 //// 153047 050 040 012 01
121900 1800N 08326W 8436 01536 //// +148 //// 152045 046 036 011 01
121930 1802N 08326W 8430 01545 0073 +160 +160 151044 045 035 004 01
122000 1804N 08326W 8431 01545 0073 +160 +160 151043 044 037 004 01
122030 1806N 08326W 8429 01547 0074 +160 +160 151043 043 036 004 01
122100 1808N 08325W 8430 01544 0074 +160 +160 151045 048 036 002 01
122130 1810N 08325W 8436 01539 //// +150 //// 147051 052 034 005 01
122200 1812N 08325W 8433 01546 //// +149 //// 140049 052 035 004 05
122230 1814N 08325W 8428 01549 0076 +160 +160 138049 050 037 003 01
122300 1815N 08326W 8430 01546 0076 +160 +160 139049 050 038 003 01
122330 1817N 08326W 8423 01554 //// +154 //// 139048 049 038 004 01
122400 1819N 08327W 8433 01543 0074 +160 +160 140048 049 040 004 01
122430 1821N 08327W 8429 01547 0075 +170 +170 138049 049 042 002 01
122500 1823N 08328W 8429 01551 0073 +160 +160 134051 051 041 002 01
122530 1825N 08329W 8430 01548 0072 +160 +160 133052 053 041 004 01
122600 1827N 08329W 8428 01552 //// +153 //// 133057 058 041 005 01
122630 1829N 08330W 8433 01546 0076 +160 +160 136054 057 040 005 05
122700 1831N 08330W 8425 01554 0074 +160 +160 141055 056 041 005 01
$$