ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[vaffie]

Looking at the buoy data from the GOM, it seems that pressures are dropping at a fair rate (2.5 mb drop in the past 24 hours) and winds are rising quickly tonight. At this rate, by midday tomorrow the pressure will be sufficiently low enough to have continuous convection over the center and rapid strengthening will ensue.

Two buoys are as follows for instance:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

where are these located?

Middle of the Gulf, fairly far away. Unfortunately there are no buoys in the southern Gulf...

[vaffie]

does anybody have a link of the cmc model? i cant seem to find it. thanks

One link is here, but it's not necessarily the first to update... Would love to know the one that is the first to update right now.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[ROCK]

I got a feeling this is going to have a large windfield due to the size.....like a WPAC system..

[cycloneye]

IMO,unless things change in a dramatic way to a more organized system,I dont see the squadron going this afternoon.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensembles are fighting within themselves as to what to do with this possible TC........Some of the members are calling for a South Texas landfall around Wednesday.

[ROCK]

IMO,unless things change in a dramatic way to a more organized system,I dont see the squadron going this afternoon.

I dont know...I think the potential is there and it being in the GOM they might go out....its not that far of a flight.....

[vaffie]

CMC seems to be out, if I am reading this correctly:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

It has almost the exact same track as the previous two runs--towards New Orleans, then a jog to the southwest and then drifts towards South/Central Texas.

[boca]

0zGFS Ensembles are fighting within themselves as to what to do with this possible TC........Some of the members are calling for a South Texas landfall around Wednesday.

Wow 2 lows thats not going to happen.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC again has hurricane tracking towards Texas.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensembles are fighting within themselves as to what to do with this possible TC........Some of the members are calling for a South Texas landfall around Wednesday.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/c ... cal132.gif

Wow 2 lows thats not going to happen.

Its not two lows, the Ensembles are 50/50 on where this possible TC is going to be located by Wednesday.

[ROCK]

00z CMC again has hurricane tracking towards Texas.

4 runs now....you cannot deny it now,,,,especially if the EURO agrees later....

[bella_may]

still have a hard time believing this this will make that dramatic of a turn to the west. The cmc is hardly ever reliable too. will wait till the GFDL and ECMWF

[vaffie]

00z CMC again has hurricane tracking towards Texas.

4 runs now....you cannot deny it now,,,,especially if the EURO agrees later....

Yup, you've got to hand it to the CMC--4 runs of consistency is quite impressive if it pans out for a 5 day forecast that everyone else is flip-flopping on.

[ROCK]

00z CMC again has hurricane tracking towards Texas.

4 runs now....you cannot deny it now,,,,especially if the EURO agrees later....

Yup, you've got to hand it to the CMC--4 runs of consistency is quite impressive if it pans out for a 5 day forecast that everyone else is flip-flopping on.

well it was upgraded last year....so maybe that is it....but that is a major global model showing the same now for 4 runs....

[South Texas Storms]

Are you guys sure the cmc updated yet? I don't see it on the fsu site yet.

[vaffie]

well it was upgraded last year....so maybe that is it....but that is a major global model showing the same now for 4 runs....

Interestingly, the NOGAPS has had similar consistency for six runs now too--although it is further south with its tracks than the CMC.

[ROCK]

Are you guys sure the cmc updated yet? I don't see it on the fsu site yet.

the FSU takes awhile to update...

[South Texas Storms]

Are you guys sure the cmc updated yet? I don't see it on the fsu site yet.

the FSU takes awhile to update...

Where are you seeing the new run then?

[ROCK]

well it was upgraded last year....so maybe that is it....but that is a major global model showing the same now for 4 runs....

Interestingly, the NOGAPS has had similar consistency for six runs now too--although it is further south with its tracks than the CMC.

the UKMET has been showing this solution for awhile also....before the CMC really...interesting

[vaffie]

Where are you seeing the new run then?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg