ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

Here's a surface plot. Strongest wind I've seen all morning is 30 kts. Strongest winds about 180-230 miles SE of the center and 80 miles NW of the center. So don't look for strong wind anywhere near the center moves ashore. Winds will be stronger in Ft. Myers and Miami than where the center moves inland. Not typical of a tropical cyclone.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/debby1.gif

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/browar ... 3583.story


Reports of downed power lines and sparking transformers were lodged with responders in Broward County from 2 p.m. Tuesday.

The National Weather Service in Miami says it's not from tornadoes, but rather from wind gusts.

Meteorologist Robert Molleda said winds have blown to close to 40 mph Tuesday, the result of “the southeast side of [Tropical Storm] Debby’s circulation.”

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
322 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
40 TO 45 MPH.

* IMPACTS...PEOPLE NEED TO SECURE LOOSE ITEMS THAT COULD BLOWN
AROUND IN THE STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES NEED TO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

[wxman57]

Just a local observation. The cold front that pushed through last night produced heavy tstorms. This am it was clear and cool, in short a perfect day (now 75, 15mph winds). But just awhile ago the outer edges of Debby (not sure if it could be called outflow) have showed here. I did not expect this. If you review the east coast visable it will be obvious and you will see the cloud bank pushing north and west. Debby's latest jog seems to be around 50 or closer to ne than ene which means it would exit further north if it held that course. So I have a few questions for the mets.

1 - Why hasn't the cool dry air from last nights cold front ended Debby's existance?

2 - Everything west of Debby seems to belong in the Sahara (looks like 2/3 of conus is dry according the wv sat loops) how could she be still here?

3 - Is it possible for Debby to entrain the moisture that seems to exist everywhere east of her, and is that what the models are seeing for possible strengthening after Fl exit.

The really dry air is still a few hundred miles north of Debby this afternoon. The frontal boundary is more of a wind shift in northern Florida at the moment. The dry air is one reason why there are no squalls anywhere near the center (shear is more of a reason). As for post-Florida strengthening, that could happen several ways. More likely, Debby becomes a frontal low and intensifies as a non-tropical (subtropical) storm as it accelerates out to sea to the northeast. Second, it could be blocked by high pressure building behind the front tomorrow/Thursday and possibly regenerate if and when the wind shear drops considerably.

I still think either option 1 (subtropical/extratropical transition strengthening) or option 3 (sheared apart) are more likely than Debby getting left behind and strengthening tropically.

[Ptarmigan]

What is the record for the most rain in a tropcial cyclone in the USA? Is it still Alvin Texas?....MGC

Actually, the record goes to Tropical Storm Amelia over Texas in 1978. A total of 48 inches of rain fell and likely more.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... a1978.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... elia_(1978)

[Ptarmigan]

40-50 inches of rain in panhandle possible per dr. Greg forbes. And no that is not a typo

Whoa! That's a lot!

[Ptarmigan]

I notice some models have Debby going westward again. The rest have Debby going east. This storm is hard to predict.

[psyclone]

significant heavy rain and ongoing flood issues look to continue from the eastern part of the Tallahassee CWA eastward into a good deal of the Jacksonville CWA.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[crimi481]

Is it possible that Debby is slowing/looping? Bands seem to be cosolidating back to center?
Or are we sure trough has her? Confidence level?

Last few frames: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, we are getting another convergence enhanced convection area just northeast of the circulation center across the I-10 corridor from Live oak eastward to Jax and also up U.S. Highway 301 corridor from near Ocala northward to Starke and MacClenny. Could see another 3-6 additional inches fall across North Florida from now through the night as Debby moves across the region FINALLY!! I hope Debby doesn't have any more trickes up her sleve. We have had enough from her here with this flooding I can assure you!

Live Oak and Lake City are completely waterlogged, and I do know of I-10 being closed in stretches from Live Oak to Jacksonville. Live Oak and Lake City have received from 15 to 20 inches of rain the past 24-26 hours and rain is still occuring over there. The Jax metro area has had rain amounts in most spots approaching 12 inches, including my location and we will tack on more to that total this evening.

[drezee]

Yuck...

000
NWUS52 KTAE 261536
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1136 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1133 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CURTIS MILL 30.01N 84.50W
06/26/2012 E28.78 INCH WAKULLA FL PUBLIC

UNOFFICIAL MEASUREMENT. STORM TOTAL. EMPTIED 7 INCH RAIN
GAUGE 4 TIMES WITH AN ADDITIONAL .78 INCHES THEREAFTER

[Terry]

Local met says Debby is moving onshore now.

[Peach]

Yeah, we are getting another convergence enhanced convection area just northeast of the circulation center across the I-10 corridor from Live oak eastward to Jax and also up U.S. Highway 301 corridor from near Ocala northward to Starke and MacClenny. Could see another 3-6 additional inches fall across North Florida from now through the night as Debby moves across the region FINALLY!! I hope Debby doesn't have any more trickes up her sleve. We have had enough from her here with this flooding I can assure you!

Live Oak and Lake City are completely waterlogged, and I do know of I-10 being closed in stretches from Live Oak to Jacksonville. Live Oak and Lake City have received from 15 to 20 inches of rain the past 24-26 hours and rain is still occuring over there. The Jax metro area has had rain amounts in most spots approaching 12 inches, including my location and we will tack on more to that total this evening.

Parts of Baker County (County seat Macclenny) being evacuated. I wait to see if a certain county building remains open, will know in the am. I have an "appointment" at 10:00 am, not the type one misses without consequences.

[CronkPSU]

so much for the heavy rains they predicted for central florida all day...nice and sunny out right now, just a brief shower so far today!

[cycloneye]

11 AM Advisory


128
WTNT34 KNHC 261748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...FLOODING THREAT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS THE MAIN CONCERN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS
NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H.
AN EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE LATER TODAY. THE WATER COULD REACH
THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND...

APALACHEE BAY AND THE NATURE COAST...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN




WTNT44 KNHC 261452
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF DEBBY
AGAIN...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 KT...WELL PREDICTED EARLIER
BY DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CLOUD LINES IN THE CYCLONE CORE ARE NOT
WELL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT DEBBY IS
WEAKENING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AT 850MB AND
MAXIMUM BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 30 KT. A
DROPSONDE ABOUT 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SURFACE
WINDS OF 33 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION
OF DEBBY...WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ADVECT
TOWARD THE STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...IF NOT
BEFORE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR AND
A NEW SUPPLY OF WARM WATER COULD ALLOW DEBBY TO RESTRENGTHEN.

AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS DRIFTING
EASTWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/03. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING ALONG 70W WILL HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO CARRY DEBBY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS...AN ABSENCE
OF RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION MAKES DEBBY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF
THE GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 28.9N 84.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 28.9N 83.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 29.1N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 29.3N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 29.6N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 30.3N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[wxman57]

Center of Debby, the swirl of low clouds, has made landfall about 35 miles north of Cedar Key. Strongest winds remain WELL south and southeast of the center (southern peninsula and Keys - 25-30 mph). Nothing near the center.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Advisory

WTNT34 KNHC 261748
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...FLOODING THREAT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA IS THE MAIN CONCERN...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM MEXICO BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.6 WEST. SATELLITE
IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS
NOW MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/H.
AN EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE LATER TODAY. THE WATER COULD REACH
THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND...

APALACHEE BAY AND THE NATURE COAST...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[LCfromFL]

Rain rain go AWAY! Thomas Creek is now in my backyard - I do not want it to end up in my house like it did when TS Fay came through (twice) in 2008. Steady rain here most of the day.

[cycloneye]

5 PM Advisory

WTNT34 KNHC 262058
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE...COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND FROM MEXICO BEACH TO WEST OF STEINHATCHEE HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM STEINHATCHEE TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT DEBBY HAS
MADE LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED ON THE COAST NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST.
DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST
NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. AN EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH
SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS DURING THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WITH LEVELS SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT
OCCURRED ON MONDAY. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS
ABOVE GROUND...

APALACHEE BAY AND THE NATURE COAST...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN


WTNT44 KNHC 262059
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

AN AIR FORCE MISSION THAT ENDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MEASURED
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED
ON THOSE DATA...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. IN THE FACE OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...DEBBY IS GENERATING ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND HAS LESS THAN A
FULLY TROPICAL APPEARANCE. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO BEING OVERTAKEN BY A
LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. THE PASSAGE OF DEBBY OVER LAND...IN ADDITION TO THE
NEGATIVE FACTORS CITED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEBBY TO WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS. AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER WATERS
FAVOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE
AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

AS ADVERTISED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS...DEBBY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/05. THE
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS RELATED TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY MID-
TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE GFS
BRIEFLY SLOWS THE CYCLONE MOTION IN THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...AND PERHAPS AS A RESULT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH
FAILS TO CAPTURE DEBBY AS STRONGLY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.
THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOT AS
QUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF
CONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 29.5N 83.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...ON THE COAST
12H 27/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/0600Z 30.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 28/1800Z 30.3N 77.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 31.4N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 33.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 36.6N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR STEINHATCHEE...COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[ozonepete]

Convective blowup again very similar to last night. Lake City to JAX right in the worst part again.

[northjaxpro]

What an absolute mess it is out there with several major highways in metro Jax has been closed off due to flooding. Torrential rtainas have returned back to the Jax area and it is coming down in buckets here at my home. I have not checked my gauge since this morning. At that time , I received just over 11 inches total since this event started Sunday. Plenty more will be added to that whenit is all done with hopefully by tomorrow night.

It is looking likely that when Debby finally gets out of here hopefully by late tomorrow that she will surpass Fay in rain accumulations and flooding across all of North Florida. That in itself is just simply incredulous.

We have just been overwhelmed here in Jax with two very nasty ladies, Beryl and Debby within the past 30 days. Totally wiped out the extreme drought we were experiencing prior to Beryl's landfall May 27 Now , the drought almost seems now like a distant memory.