ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Jevo]

The king has returned..... Gfs called this a week ago. Looks like the off season upgrade helped.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Just a Mid-Atlantic doc weighing in to wish all under this storm's impact safety and community during this storm.

[ozonepete]

The king has returned..... Gfs called this a week ago. Looks like the off season upgrade helped.

Yeah, not only since last week, as you said, but dead on. Let's see what happens next, since for over a week it has also forecast Debby to move out northeastward of northern Florida and intensify again.

[northjaxpro]

Just a Mid-Atlantic doc weighing in to wish all under this storm's impact safety and community during this storm.

Thanks for those kind words! We all need encoragement from what is going on arond here curerently for sure.

[northjaxpro]

The king has returned..... Gfs called this a week ago. Looks like the off season upgrade helped.

Yeah, not only since last week, as you said, but dead on. Let's see what happens next, since for over a week it has also forecast Debby to move out northeastward of northern Florida and intensify again.

Yeah, what can I say about the GFS. This model deserves major kudos and praise for nailing Debby really actually 10 days out in time.The model never whatsoever wavered in developing this storm and moving it into NE GUlf and across North Florida and exiting off the coast near Jacksonville. This is exactly what has occured almost precisely as the model forecasted well in advance.

Maybe the upgrade the GFS model received back on May 22 helps explain this. It is always good to know that a major model like the GFS has been improved to help us all in the future to poinpoint better in predicting forecast paths. EURO usually is old reliable, but it got totally whipped just this once by the GFS.

[Peach]

For the professionals: strongest winds to the SE, how about heaviest rain? It is my understanding that heaviest rain is usually in the NE quadrant*, any thoughts/knowledge to share? Most, if not all, court hearings in my county cancelled today around 4:20, very unusual. Winds here were picking up, now dropped down to a breeze.

*If one can say this mass has quadrants that is.

[baytownwx]

I agree the gfs did a great job and hardly waivered......but I really think it could have gone either way. GFS originally had her pulled across Florida because it came up with phantom Ernesto off the Atlantic sea board. Had Debby not keep displacing her LLC to convection to the NE she would have probably gone west.

***Not a met. just my amateur opinion.

[northjaxpro]

Convergence band sitting right over metro Jax. Torrential flooding rains occuring currently. Just heard on local news of people having to get rescued from cars that are getting stalled in flood waters here in town.

[TheBurn]

22:01z VIS / IR (Day / Night)




WV_Enhanced

[ronjon]

Too funny - Debby is actually sliding SE along the FL west coast. Wants to make a stop in Cedar Key.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/tbw/flash-vis.html

[crimi481]

I posted "south" direction this morning - as steering currents weak. Only direction not mention in earlier NHC discussion. This is getting stranger -fast

[northjaxpro]

Latest radar imagery of the convergence band dumping torrential rainfall estimates of 2 -3 inches per hour currently over Jax metro area.

[ATCcane]

Certainly seems to be sliding SSE along the coast.

[psyclone]

the naked swirl contains no significant wx. it's just an interesting feature. I'm more intersted in the actual weather which is focused on northeast florida and hopefully soon to be offshore. that radar looks bad around jax.

[northjaxpro]

psyclone, I ran out right quick to look at the rain gauge during a brief slackening of the rain and I have picked up jsut over 5 inches of rain in just over 2 hours at my location. Just an incredible amount of rain in just a brief period and it is now raining heavily again. Looking at radar , could pick up at least 2-4 inches more before this rain eases up sometime hopefully later tonight. Bad flooding occuring over metro Jax.

[psyclone]

psyclone, I ran out right quick to look at the rain gauge during a brief slackening of the rain and I have picked up jsut over 5 inches of rain in just over 2 hours at my location. Just an incredible amount of rain in just a brief period and it is now raining heavily again. Looking at radar , could pick up at least 2-4 inches more before this rain eases up sometime hopefully later tonight. bad flooding occuring over metro Jax.

that is just astounding. tropical rainfall is remarkably efficient...the radar reflectivities frequently make the intensity appear less extreme than it is. Good luck to you and everyone in northeast florida...flash flooding is even more dangerous with darkness approaching so i hope folks stay home.

[AmeliaIslandr]

It's been non stop rain on amelia island, thunder is rumbling now too. The oak tree limbs are weighed down from all the water. Keeping a close eye on the one hanging over my back porch.

[ozonepete]

Massive convective flare-up.

[thetraveler]

1979

What is the record for the most rain in a tropcial cyclone in the USA? Is it still Alvin Texas?....MGC

Actually, the record goes to Tropical Storm Amelia over Texas in 1978. A total of 48 inches of rain fell and likely more.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... a1978.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_S ... elia_(1978)

Amelia did drop a ton of rain over the Texas Hill Country, but TS Claudette in 1979 holds the record for the most rain fall in 24 hours. She dropped 45 inches in Alvin.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/history/#claudette

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT Advisory/Downgraded to Tropical Depression

WTNT34 KNHC 262357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM N OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. AN EASTWARD
OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DEBBY SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE
CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORM SURGE...EVEN THOUGH DEBBY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...COASTAL
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS DURING THE
NEXT HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING...WITH LEVELS SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT
OCCURRED ON MONDAY. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS
ABOVE GROUND...

APALACHEE BAY AND THE NATURE COAST...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING TAMPA BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED
RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN