ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012

...DEBBY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...COASTAL AND INLAND
FLOODING THREATS REMAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 83.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM N OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[jaxfladude]

Worst flooding I've ever *personally experienced* in my 29 years of living in Jacksonville, Fl...

Can not wait for the rains to end.....flooding is too close for comfort....

[ozonepete]

Stay safe all of you guys. Unfortunately there's a lot more rain to come tonight.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Stay safe in Jacksonville. This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact Jacksonville and Florida.
Hopefully that pattern changes before August/September...
It looks like high pressure building in from the NW is pushing Debby's circulation towards
the southeast. Not that there is any significant weather near the center, the worst
flooding is to the East.

Theoretically, if the high were strong enough, it could push it back down into the gulf
and shoot it west to Texas. I know that is a wild scenario but you never know
with a system like this. I'm not predicting anything like that but it would not
surprise me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[crimi481]

the naked swirl contains no significant wx. it's just an interesting feature. I'm more intersted in the actual weather which is focused on northeast florida and hopefully soon to be offshore. that radar looks bad around jax.

Actually - the fact that the center going S.E. makes big difference -as the intense rain to its east is sinking sout east with center - creating more flooding fo larger area of State
I can't believe Brian Norcross just now said the center moving E.N.E? Its not

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tropicwatch]

Actually - the fact that the center going S.E. makes big difference -as the intense rain to its east is sinking sout east with center - creating more flooding fo larger area of State
I can't believe Brian Norcross just now said the center moving E.N.E? Its not

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html[/quote]


I was kind of surprised at that also. Maybe they want to see if that trend continues before giving an official change of course. I am also starting wonder if the High building in is separating Debby from the front.

[CrazyC83]

Amazing that Debby seems to be running like a non-tropical system with land-based convection...

[northjaxpro]

Stay safe in Jacksonville. This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact Jacksonville and Florida.
Hopefully that pattern changes before August/September...
It looks like high pressure building in from the NW is pushing Debby's circulation towards
the southeast. Not that there is any significant weather near the center, the worst
flooding is to the East.

Theoretically, if the high were strong enough, it could push it back down into the gulf
and shoot it west to Texas. I know that is a wild scenario but you never know
with a system like this. I'm not predicting anything like that but it would not
surprise me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

I can tell you for certain I have lived here all of my life and I can't ever recall Jacksonville being seriously impacted by two tropical cyclones within 30 days. It has really been amazing seeing this unfold this past month. Yeah, this area has really taken a beating from first Beryl's landfall here and now Debby coming at us from the GOM. Incredible to think that just a month ago before all of this happened we were in the midst of an extreme drought in this area. Now it seems like a distant memory now.

This much I can say for sure. I have now measured more rain with this event than I accumulated when TS Fay affected this area in 2008. I measured a little over 14 inches total during that event. I have already measured over 16 inches of rain to this point and still raining. Thankfully, the heavy torrential downpours have shifted south-southeast of Jax area currently.

[ozonepete]

Actually - the fact that the center going S.E. makes big difference -as the intense rain to its east is sinking sout east with center - creating more flooding fo larger area of State
I can't believe Brian Norcross just now said the center moving E.N.E? Its not

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I was kind of surprised at that also. Maybe they want to see if that trend continues before giving an official change of course. I am also starting wonder if the High building in is separating Debby from the front.[/quote]



It is quite definitely not moving southeast at all. It is moving steadily ENE. You are watching small eddies rotating within the general center, and they can seriously mislead you as to where the center is, or where it is going, whether you look on radar or satellite. A lot of us here have spent many, many seasons looking at them trying to get a better feel for how to compensate for you eyes' ability to get fooled by that. It takes a lot of practice, believe me! And I'm not saying I'm good at it, but I can tell with Debby that it is still moving ENE. Aric is one of the best on here; I'd actually say no one is better than him at it. But it's not moving SE at all.

[crimi481]

Actually - the fact that the center going S.E. makes big difference -as the intense rain to its east is sinking sout east with center - creating more flooding fo larger area of State
I can't believe Brian Norcross just now said the center moving E.N.E? Its not

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I was kind of surprised at that also. Maybe they want to see if that trend continues before giving an official change of course. I am also starting wonder if the High building in is separating Debby from the front.

It is quite definitely not moving southeast at all. It is moving steadily ENE. You are watching small eddies rotating within the general center, and they can seriously mislead you as to where the center is, or where it is going, whether you look on radar or satellite. A lot of us here have spent many, many seasons looking at them trying to get a better feel for how to compensate for you eyes' ability to get fooled by that. It takes a lot of practice, believe me! And I'm not saying I'm good at it, but I can tell with Debby that it is still moving ENE. Aric is one of the best on here; I'd actually say no one is better than him at it. But it's not moving SE at all. [/quote]

To be seen. Norcross just did comment on it. Thinks the high is building from top -pushing south,
He is not sure yet - but glad he noticed the southward drift of center. This fact can help determine where Deb ends up next -I believe

[ozonepete]

I can tell you for certain I have lived here all of my life and I can't ever recall Jacksonville being seriously impacted by two tropical cyclones within 30 days. It has really been amazing seeing this unfold this past month. Yeah, this area has really taken a beating from first Beryl's landfall here and now Debby coming at us from the GOM. Incredible to think that just a month ago before all of this happened we were in the midst of an extreme drought in this area. Now it seems like a distant memory now.

This much I can say for sure. I have now measured more rain with this event than I accumulated when TS Fay affected this area in 2008. I measured a little over 14 inches total during that event. I have already measured over 16 inches of rain to this point and still raining. Thankfully, the heavy torrential downpours have shifted south-southeast of Jax area currently.

This is good news that the heaviest rain is letting up over you. Looks like you might have seen the worst. Hang in there!

[sponger]

Just getting hammered here in N St Johns County. Water everywhere and no where to go!

[StormingB81]

Orlando area got lucky its been all around but here well in my part atleast

[ronjon]

This is interesting - Debbie drifting S-SE to a position just off my back patio here in western Hernando County. She definitely is getting pushed south - maybe because its attached to the front to the east and the high to the NW is pushing it south. Looks like speed convergence from the southerly flow off the east side of the low is hitting the front and creating the heavy rain over Ocala-Gainesville now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[ozonepete]

This is interesting - Debbie drifting S-SE to a position just off my back patio here in western Hernando County. She definitely is getting pushed south - maybe because its attached to the front to the east and the high to the NW is pushing it south. Looks like speed convergence from the southerly flow off the east side of the low is hitting the front and creating the heavy rain over Ocala-Gainesville now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

We'll see if you're right about this new motion on the 11PM advisory.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It would make sense that a strong ridge to the NW would force TD Debby southward.
Now I am curious to see if it starts to go SSW or even SW with time...
This TD is 2 counties north of me literally. It is breezy outside which makes
it feel very pleasant.

[northjaxpro]

Jax Mayor Alvin Brown on TWC confirmed over 100 roads have been closed due to serious flooding across the city.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jacksonville has gone many many years without severe impacts from a tropical cyclone or a direct
hit...but all that changed with Beryl and now Debby is setting flooding records. This is unreal.
It's almost like mother nature decided "Gosh it's really dry in NE Florida so l'm going to give
them a very active tropical season to take the drought away".

[psyclone]

a look at the radar seems to validate the SE movement theory.

[Terry]

Jacksonville has gone many many years without severe impacts from a tropical cyclone or a direct
hit...but all that changed with Beryl and now Debby is setting flooding records. This is unreal.
It's almost like mother nature decided "Gosh it's really dry in NE Florida so l'm going to give
them a very active tropical season".

Yes and this is what creates "average" rainfall, etc. Kind of stupid.