ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Thanks...

P.S. Miami has had 7.5 feet of rain so far this year (!), so another inch or two should be all right...

[KWT]

I suspect by the time it gets to 25-30N this will be a rather large system, both land interaction and a slow but steady transition to ET will really whack up the windfield of this system.

Looking good right now..

Also, remember this system has lower pressure than expected for a system of this strength, and as it gets larger and goes ET thats more likely to be the case, so sub 950mbs maybe possible, but equally that may not be quite as strong as some people would expect.

[GCANE]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
739 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

ONCE AGAIN...THE FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY.
SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SOLUTION IS THE CLOSEST TO
THE EAST COAST AND EVENTUALLY TAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON INTO TUE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING HEAVY
RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND COASTAL FLOODING INTO THE AREA. THE
ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED THE BEST CONTINUITY...WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM
HAVE VARIED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK. THE LATTER TWO MODELS TAKE
THE STORM SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WOULD BE
POTENTIAL MARINE IMPACTS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NW FROM THE OFFSHORE LOW. NEARLY HALF OF THE GEFS MEMBERS
THOUGH SUPPORT THE RETROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES. RIGHT NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO USE
A CONSERVATIVE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH AND HAVE MADE ONLY
SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS SINCE THE 12Z TUE CYCLE.

THE FORECAST SEEMS TO HINGE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOW FRI-SAT...AND THEN THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY STATES SUN INTO MON. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE AN INCOMING JET MAX/SHORT WAVE OVER
THE TN/OH VALLEY ON SUN...WHICH IS STRONGEST IN THE ECMWF. THIS
FEATURE ALLOWS THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED STEERING
THE LOW IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE
WEAKER...AND THUS ALLOWS THE LOW TO TAKE A RIGHT HAND TURN OUT TO
SEA. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE SPACING BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND THIS
SHORT WAVE IS SMALL IN THE GRAND SCHEME...BUT WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER THE FORECAST AREA IS IMPACTED OR NOT. THIS
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE....BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT FORECAST.

PRIOR TO THAT TIME...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON
FRI WILL BUILD OFFSHORE ON SAT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ALSO BUILDING OFFSHORE. FRI AND SAT WILL BE
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH THE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION. 500 MB HEIGHTS APPROACH 580 DM ON FRI...GRADUALLY FALLING ON
SAT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off

[SFLcane]

Eastward shift in models overnight in my opinion will most likely keep TS winds over the water and away from main land SFL.

[AdamFirst]

Eastward shift? In which models?

Things have been relatively the same in most model camps, with GFS and EURO staying the course through 72 hours.

And regardless of the track, the storm is expected to be going under hybrid-extratropical transition. The wind field could expand greatly, putting TS force winds across the east coast of Florida, even if we are in the "clean side" of the storm. This is no ordinary tropical system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Eastward shift? In which models?

Things have been relatively the same in most model camps, with GFS and EURO staying the course through 72 hours.

And regardless of the track, the storm is expected to be going under hybrid-extratropical transition. The wind field could expand greatly, putting TS force winds across the east coast of Florida, even if we are in the "clean side" of the storm. This is no ordinary tropical system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Oh I agree on expansion of windfield but still feel sustain TS winds will stay offshore by 40-50 miles. Maybe similar to what south Florida experienced during issac.

[SouthernBreeze]

Hi all, I'm at the NC/SC line, on the coast - they are showing a definite curve before it gets too near here - does anyone know if the timing of the curve seem pretty definite, or if there much chance of Sandy getting a good bit closer before she curves east?

[artist]

Eastward shift? In which models?

Things have been relatively the same in most model camps, with GFS and EURO staying the course through 72 hours.

And regardless of the track, the storm is expected to be going under hybrid-extratropical transition. The wind field could expand greatly, putting TS force winds across the east coast of Florida, even if we are in the "clean side" of the storm. This is no ordinary tropical system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Oh I agree on expansion of windfield but still feel sustain TS winds will stay offshore by 40-50 miles. Maybe similar to what south Florida experienced during issac.

let's just hope we don't get the rains. We also lost power for close to 24 hours here in Isaac.

[CrazyC83]

The dropsonde suggests a pressure of 978mb.

[Bocadude85]

Eastward shift? In which models?

Things have been relatively the same in most model camps, with GFS and EURO staying the course through 72 hours.

And regardless of the track, the storm is expected to be going under hybrid-extratropical transition. The wind field could expand greatly, putting TS force winds across the east coast of Florida, even if we are in the "clean side" of the storm. This is no ordinary tropical system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Oh I agree on expansion of windfield but still feel sustain TS winds will stay offshore by 40-50 miles. Maybe similar to what south Florida experienced during issac.

The 6z GFS actually shifted a smidge more to the west.

[Aric Dunn]

Eastward shift? In which models?

Things have been relatively the same in most model camps, with GFS and EURO staying the course through 72 hours.

And regardless of the track, the storm is expected to be going under hybrid-extratropical transition. The wind field could expand greatly, putting TS force winds across the east coast of Florida, even if we are in the "clean side" of the storm. This is no ordinary tropical system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Oh I agree on expansion of windfield but still feel sustain TS winds will stay offshore by 40-50 miles. Maybe similar to what south Florida experienced during issac.

you do realize that even the farthest east model puts ts winds on the coast and the most relaible models have over 50mph winds all the up the coast through central florida. also the proximity to land is such that there will be plenty of rain especially if the euro is correct it rotates left throwing the moisture to its west side.

[ozonepete]

Eastward shift? In which models?

Things have been relatively the same in most model camps, with GFS and EURO staying the course through 72 hours.

And regardless of the track, the storm is expected to be going under hybrid-extratropical transition. The wind field could expand greatly, putting TS force winds across the east coast of Florida, even if we are in the "clean side" of the storm. This is no ordinary tropical system.

Some people are just not getting it, but I admire your perseverance in trying to keep everyone aware that this system will start behaving very differently after it crosses Cuba.

[SFLcane]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric. Expecting something similar to what we had during issac across the mainland. Core might be heavily disrupted after cuba's mountains but as others mention expansion of windfield will make for a few windy days around here.

[ozonepete]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

Quite likely some of the FL east coast will get them.

[artist]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... torm+Watch

[GCANE]

Core up to 3C

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 7_TANO.GIF

[SFLcane]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... torm+Watch

Only warnings issued at present time are for coastal waters not mainland.

[MiamiensisWx]

Then TS warnings should be issued later if ur correct Aric.

Quite likely some of the FL east coast will get them.

Do you think so? The 12Z operational GFS (aqua-blue line) has shifted a good 25 n mi or so east of the 00Z run through 36 hours, now taking the center over central Exuma rather than just to the west. While the ECMWF and NOGAPS remain the same, in the short term other models have shifted a bit to the east, including the TVCE. Since the center of Sandy has been moving NNE rather than N on recent reconnaissance fixes, would you not think that the trends make a difference between ~40 kt and ~30 kt (weak TS winds and TD winds) on the east coast of SE FL? To my eyes, the chance of TS winds here appears to be decreasing somewhat.

Thanks!

[gatorcane]

Looks like Sandy is gradually starting to expand more to the west. I just not seeing that NNE movement any longer from yesterday....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[SouthernBreeze]

Hi all, I'm at the NC/SC line, on the coast - they are showing a definite curve before it gets too near here - does anyone know if the timing of the curve seem pretty definite, or if there much chance of Sandy getting a good bit closer before she curves east?