ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Got data, got images ....

so who's making the airplane noises?

Alright, I could do images/data whenever needed.

He's joking with ya. lol

Sorry didn't get it...makes me the odd one out .

[Dave]

My egg timer...not joking....lol

[Sanibel]

I bet they find lower pressures because of that eye behavior which is similar to an intensifying system

[tolakram]

Looks like eyewall is almost complete.

[SunnyThoughts]

I hope they aren't having some kind of equipment malfunction.

[Kingarabian]

It's been around 20 minutes...

[Dave]

Still on the runway...

[JGrin87]

This storm is exploding!

[KWT]

Inner core is looking tight, going to be a close run thing as to whether it can get upto category-2 but given the frictional help given by the coastline I think its very possible!

[Airboy]

Could it be canceled because the system will soon make landfall?

[cycloneye]

This cam at Playa del Carmen beach that is empty near Cozumel is downloaded to preserve it. Look at that band approaching the beach.

[brunota2003]

4 hours ish?

0000 UTC = 7 pm edt for the center fix...so take off will come in an hour or so.

00 UTC is 8 pm EDT/7 pm EST.

[Dave]

Could it be canceled because the system will soon make landfall?

Yes that may be the reason they are still on the runway.

[Kingarabian]

This cam at Playa del Carmen beach that is empty near Cozumel is downloaded to preserve it. Look at that band approaching the beach.

[img]Image[/img]

Sucks that beach won't be looking that good in a few hours or so...

[hurricanes1234]

Does anyone think that by 0000 UTC they will find sustained winds in excess of 95 mph?

[Kingarabian]

T.C.W.
05L/H/E/C2
MARK
R.I.FLAG ON
19.06N/86.36W

[Dave]

4 hours ish?

0000 UTC = 7 pm edt for the center fix...so take off will come in an hour or so.

00 UTC is 8 pm EDT/7 pm EST.

Unless your from that part of Indiana that never changes.

[JGrin87]

T.C.W.
05L/H/E/C2
MARK
R.I.FLAG ON
19.06N/86.36W

What does this mean?

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, forecast last night missed the mark. Ernesto never intensified further. Looking through things very briefly...I saw a possible indicator around the 2 am to 3 am EDT time frame...which would mark the start of "RI" right about now (plus or minus an hour or so). Due to land, I do not feel confident that Ernesto will reach the 30 knots required...but a jump of 20 to 25 knots (note that only 5 to 10 knots more strength would be needed) over the next 12 hours seems reasonable before land interaction shuts things down.

8 pm forecast: 75 to 80 knots, leveling off around that due to land on most of the sides of Ernesto...that is if he doesn't fall apart during the day again, like he has been doing.

Secondary note: This was using the 8 am intensity of 55 knots.

No changes required...current intensity (if it is accurate...not too sure about that) gives me a buffer of 5 to 10 knots.

[brunota2003]

00 UTC is 8 pm EDT/7 pm EST.

Unless your from that part of Indiana that never changes.

So then you would be in EST still Not EDT

I give I give! I messed up on my time calcs. Happy? LOL

For the record...I, brunota2003, did not write that last part!