ATL: ISAAC - Models

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TwisterFanatic
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#4481 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:02 am

Looks like it might be a west shift, but not like the GFS.
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#4482 Postby thetruesms » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:02 am

We're at the fork in the road, which way does it go? Image

Image
The 500 map from iwm doesn't really give any clear hints . . .
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#4483 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:05 am

HR60 is a little further west on this run, but starting to make a northerly turn. on present heading it would be close to where that 00z GFDL ends up.
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#4484 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:08 am

Looks like landfall is close at hour 72. pretty close to Pensacola....Euro starts to slow it down near the coast.
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#4485 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:09 am

Darn you, Euro! I was hoping for consensus. The waiting game shall continue...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4486 Postby timmeister » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:11 am

00Z EURO 72 HRS

Image

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#4487 Postby Comanche » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:12 am

BigB0882 wrote:Darn you, Euro! I was hoping for consensus. The waiting game shall continue...


While not exact consensus, it did at least swing back west this run.......
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#4488 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:12 am

Depending which way it is heading at 72 hours that may just barely miss FL and go to AL.
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#4489 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:13 am

Sitting on the coast at hour 84....Its amazing how much just a little time difference can make btwn getting trapped and trying to head west, or getting picked up a bit....who's going to be right?
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#4490 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:13 am

So it hasn't really moved between hour 72 and hour 84? sitting right there on the Ala/Fla coast?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4491 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:14 am

Higher rez screen says 959mb? Both 0z GFLD/EURO bomb it at same locations pensacola.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4492 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:14 am

Euro done a much better job with this run than the gfs did IMO. And i'm a fan of the gfs
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#4493 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:14 am

If it heads West after a stall that would be in a good bit of agreement with some other models, just a different placement of where it gets before stalling and heading west. Hmmm...but don't storms usually take off N after a stall?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4494 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:15 am

The erosion of the ridge is evident @ 72 hours in the 0z Euro

Image

It's all going to come down to timing
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#4495 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:15 am

Pretty noticeable shift west, and very strong as well.
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#4496 Postby smw1981 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:15 am

SunnyThoughts wrote:So it hasn't really moved between hour 72 and hour 84? sitting right there on the Ala/Fla coast?


That could be REALLY bad for both of us Sunny.. At least 12 hours of water piling up in y'alls bays.. no good.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4497 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:15 am

959.3mb... That might just be the euro's strongest landfall strength yet. Are there any models not showing this as a major at final landfall?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4498 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:15 am

bella_may wrote:Euro done a much better job with this run than the gfs did IMO. And i'm a fan of the gfs


Would you share why you think that? I am trying to learn all I can.
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#4499 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:15 am

HR 96 its moving north, getting picked up by the trof...*2nd push* and moving northward...slooooooowly..just south of Montgomery...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#4500 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 26, 2012 1:16 am

timmeister wrote:00Z EURO 72 HRS

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/809/usaprmslmsl072u.gif/http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/8774/usaprmslmsl072u.gif[/url]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


That to me looks to be close to Mobile, so that would be close to 100 miles further West this run.

Also watching TWC they have extended the Alert area much further West to about Morgan City, La.

*edited by southerngale to remove IMG tags from quote - please remove them when quoting a post with an image
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