ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jinftl]

Wind field isn't far off the coast of SE FLA...still moving more nw then wnw so for now it is heading our way. Already gusting to 30 mph from time to time in most locations from West Palm south now.

Graphic shows current extent of wind field. Current warnings seem justified given the size of ts winds and current motion.

[StormTracker]

its getting its acted together fast. hate to say it but keys/south florida may have a little surprise in the morning.. keep your heads up tonight just incase.

Agreed!

I totally concur...been thinking that for the last couple of days!

[gone2beach]

Saved loop of Cuban Radar.

Do you happen to have the link for that? I can't find an updating image anywhere.

I think this is what you might be looking for.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_li ... R&loop=yes

[StormTracker]

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

By the looks of that, do you think Isaac will miss his next forecast point or two?

[southerngale]

I just popped into the chatroom with my AndChat app. 78 people talking about Isaac. Come on in!

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

[SouthFLTropics]

Recon is on the way out there right now. I'll be glad when they get there so we can get a VDM and get some center fixes and determine what the real current motion and intensity is. I'm hoping the center doesn't decide to jump NE under the convection that is building. That could possibly bring the bad conditions closer to metro South FLA.

SFT

[Bocadude85]

IM having a hard time seeing the center where the NHC places it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-swir-short.html

[Chris_in_Tampa]

After an hour, I finally got an image. Saved Cuba radar. It is at the link, it just rarely loads with the right time.

[ObsessedMiami]

John Morales of NBC6 of Miami is now forecasting an average of 9 inches of rain in Metro Miami. Said Keys will have more wind, less rain. Mainland SFL will have more rain/less wind.

[brunota2003]

Here is my wind field map, since the newest wild field graphics have been posted by the NHC. The red area (hurricane force) is a lot bigger than it was earlier, and a lot closer to land!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CronkPSU]

Here is my wind field map with the newest wild field graphics. The red area (hurricane force) is a lot bigger than it was earlier, and a lot closer to land! New Orleans is near the edge of the 50 knot winds.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

are those sustained winds or gusting? for instance, central florida expected to get sustained 34 and above winds?

[brunota2003]

It says on the graphic...they are for sustained winds. I use the 20% or greater line from the NHC wind graphics and overlay each category on top of each other, to create one graphic.

[MiamiensisWx]

NOLA metropolitan area has just 72 hours to evacuate...if the potential threat is not adequately communicated, the window to evacuate might be very short should the models verify but residents assume the storm will pass farther east. People really need to focus on the cone given the large size and rapidly evolving situation...in my view, this type of scenario may be the most dangerous of all for SE LA/MS.

[floridasun78]

it look like blob moving toward south fl and upper keys near big island in bahama

[Maven2379]

NOLA metropolitan area has just 72 hours to evacuate...if the potential threat is not adequately communicated, the window to evacuate might be very short should the models verify but residents assume the storm will pass farther east. People really need to focus on the cone given the large size and rapidly evolving situation...in my view, this type of scenario may be the most dangerous of all for SE LA/MS.

I live just outside of NOLA and I really do think they need to make the cone just a little bigger!! I know I will leave if it shifts more this way but I really do think they need to make the cone bigger, just so residents of NOLA will know hey maybe I need to watch this! I know why they don't shift the cone for every run of the models, but I really think they could make the cone bigger!!

[Meteorcane]

NOLA metropolitan area has just 72 hours to evacuate...if the potential threat is not adequately communicated, the window to evacuate might be very short should the models verify but residents assume the storm will pass farther east. People really need to focus on the cone given the large size and rapidly evolving situation...in my view, this type of scenario may be the most dangerous of all for SE LA/MS.

I have to feel that the folks at the NHC are already communicating with emergency officials in the NOLA/MS area about the possibility of Isaac making landfall in that area, I also imagine if the EURO shifts west we may see a dramatic (by NHC standards) shift west with the cone, although I should note that Dennis several years ago went through similar flip-flopping regarding it's final landfall location in the NGOM

[floridasun78]

big island andros were big blob center of ISAAC look like moving too

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Well our family is almost packed up, the cars are gassed up and by noon tomorrow we are heading to austin, tx. Boats are all tired to the trees (yes, you saw that right). One of our small oyster boats is coming out of the water in the morning.

My preemie grandson was discharged from the NICU a few days ago and needs oxygen. So, I may be leaving for nothing, but family comes first. I hope everyone fares good. We should arrive in about 10hrs, give or take a few for rest stop for the kids and my 80 y/o dad. And will be thinking about everyone on this board. I will be back on as soon as we reach the hotel.

[BenD]

Just stopping in to say thanks for the interesting discussion everyone. Been lurking here watching this storm as I live in SE LA. I am a college aged male who has always been fascinated with weather. Planning to gas up the truck and pick up some spare gas cans tomorrow.

Welcome. Here are a few tips for you.

A few good model resources are these.
http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weather/
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

Also, if you haven't already, download the Tropical Atlantic Google Earth Thingy.
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#taoverlays

Thanks a ton, this helped me out as well!

[brunota2003]

NOLA metropolitan area has just 72 hours to evacuate...if the potential threat is not adequately communicated, the window to evacuate might be very short should the models verify but residents assume the storm will pass farther east. People really need to focus on the cone given the large size and rapidly evolving situation...in my view, this type of scenario may be the most dangerous of all for SE LA/MS.

I live just outside of NOLA and I really do think they need to make the cone just a little bigger!! I know I will leave if it shifts more this way but I really do think they need to make the cone bigger, just so residents of NOLA will know hey maybe I need to watch this! I know why they don't shift the cone for every run of the models, but I really think they could make the cone bigger!!

They can't make the cone bigger...it is based off of the average errors from the last 10 years for each forecast point.