ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cheezyWXguy]

I would be careful judging the strength or structure of the "far side" of the storm opposite the eye wall relative to the the Belize radar. Without knowing the specs of the radar, based on the IR satellite presentation, there is likely some serious attentuation of the beam going on.

Thats true, I have noticed that radar seems to present far side of the eye as weaker than than the near side. I highly doubt its being sheared, but believe its more likely strengthening wobbles being enhanced by Ernesto's reaction to its ever-increasing proximity to land.

[littlevince]

Interesting loop

[timmeister]

Looks like he intensified right before landfall.

[Hurricane Alexis]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 080318
TCUAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1015 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...BELIZE RADAR INDICATES ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...DATA FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE
HURRICANE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MAHAHUAL MEXICO AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF MAHAHUAL MEXICO
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[ozonepete]

Looks like he intensified right before landfall.

Oh boy are you right. It hit at max intensity for what it could be at the time.

(Just imho, but don't think anyone would argue...)

[stephen23]

Pretty picture of the eye when he made landfall. How long will he head NW now across the Yucatan?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1015 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

...BELIZE RADAR INDICATES ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN YUCATAN COAST...

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...DATA FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE
HURRICANE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MAHAHUAL MEXICO AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF MAHAHUAL MEXICO
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

[ozonepete]

Wow, that blasted onshore with a perfect eye and inner core. Really too bad we didn't have RECON for that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Going to be a very interesting post-storm analysis with this one. Id venture a guess they bump it up to cat 2 intensity. Ive never seen a 1 that looked that good.

[ozonepete]

Going to be a very interesting post-storm analysis with this one. Id venture a guess they bump it up to cat 2 intensity. Ive never seen a 1 that looked that good.

Yeah, probably a 2. Hopefully we'll get enough readings from locations near landfall to confirm it, either directly or by interpolation. Sure looked like at least a low 2 at landfall.

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[timmeister]

Looks like he's still intensifying with the center onshore.

[Incoming!]

This has been one fascinating storm to watch. Roughly how long will he be over land now?

[ozonepete]

Looks like he's still intensifying with the center onshore.

http://i49.tinypic.com/116n8r5.gif

No. The center is filling in. It's definitely weakening now.

[ozonepete]

This has been one fascinating storm to watch. Roughly how long will he be over land now?

Should be back over water by about 2PM EDT tomorrow...

[timmeister]

Looks like he's still intensifying with the center onshore.

http://i49.tinypic.com/116n8r5.gif

No. The center is filling in. It's definitely weakening now.

So why are the areas of deep convection expanding in size?

[thetruesms]

I would be careful judging the strength or structure of the "far side" of the storm opposite the eye wall relative to the the Belize radar. Without knowing the specs of the radar, based on the IR satellite presentation, there is likely some serious attentuation of the beam going on.

It's apparently an S-band radar, so attenuation shouldn't be a very big concern It is a curious structure compared to satellite, though.

[ozonepete]

Looks like he's still intensifying with the center onshore.

http://i49.tinypic.com/116n8r5.gif

No. The center is filling in. It's definitely weakening now.

So why are the areas of deep convection expanding in size?

That's what always happens as the center comes onshore. Land friction causes the surface winds to turn inward toward the center. The center fills in with surface air and the thunderstorms in the ring around it start losing intensity. The thunderstorms further out from the center hang onto their intensity longer so it looks like an expanding ring as each inward ring of thunderstorms collapses.

[Hurricane Alexis]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 080543
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
100 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 88.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY THE BELIZE DOPPLER RADAR TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...AND EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND THIS MORNING. RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATER THIS MORNING.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
BELIZE...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR
WHERE ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[Hammy]

its weakened probably but become better organized at the same time as the eye is now clearly visible on satellite

[beoumont]

On several past occasions when hurricanes have passed over Yucatan and come back over the Bay of Canned Peaches, the eye when it emerges is 50-180 miles wide. Let's see if this happens again.