ATL: ISAAC - Models

[sammy126]

what model has been the most accurate so far in the tracking?

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

95 knots is 110 mph, right on the threshold.

Sustained I'm guessing? That's 178kmhr ....

Yep, that would be sustained.

Yup yup, still used to the Australian system ! We go by gusts, not sustained winds. The difference on your scale is amazing.
178kmhr gust in our system is a category 3. You guys have our gusts as a sustained wind and it's still a high end category 2! However your gusts with 178 sustained would be 210-220kmhr.

Crazy when you compare it!

[nashrobertsx]

Can someone post the next release times of the next few models?

[thatwhichisnt]

IIRC the GFS should be any minute now at 6am cdt.

[perk]

Can someone post the next release times of the next few models?

The 6oz GFS is almost identical to the oz run.

[thatwhichisnt]

Can someone post the next release times of the next few models?

The 6oz GFS is almost identical to the oz run.

Its been released?

[perk]

Can someone post the next release times of the next few models?

The 6oz GFS is almost identical to the oz run.

Its been released?

Yes

[hcane27]

what model has been the most accurate so far in the tracking?

ECMWF at 24 and 48 hours ... off by 29 and 63 NM respectively ... NHC at 72 hours ... off by 52 NM

[hcane27]

what model has been the most accurate so far in the tracking?

ECMWF at 24 and 48 hours ... off by 29 and 63 NM respectively ... NHC at 72 hours ... off by 52 NM

GFS has been off by 81 , 132 , 162 NM ... respectively .... ECMWF off by 105 NM @ 72 hours

[karenfromheaven]

what model has been the most accurate so far in the tracking?

Each model brings its own perspective on the track and synoptic setup, so they all make a contribution. The GFS and Euro have been exchanging places in the West/East flip flop over the last few days. Here is a portion of a great discussion posted earlier in the Discussion thread, from the NWS New Orleans. You can see how the tracks can be different depending on how each model puts the fine points on the troughs and ridges.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
506 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND FOR
LOWER ST. BERNARD AND LOWER PLAQUEMINES PARISHES IN LOUISIANA...
.

.LONG TERM...

NO ON TO THE TOPIC OF MAIN CONCERN...TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. ISAAC
IS LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST AND
MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF
THE STORM CONTINUES TO LOOK RAGGED ON SATELLITE WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION MAINLY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THAT
SAID...A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS FOUND A SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURE
OF 995 MB AND WINDS OF 65 MPH. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW ISSAC MOVING GENERALLY
IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARDS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT TRACK.

BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THE HURRICANE CENTER TRACK PUTS ISSAC
AROUND 100 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ONCE ISAAC REACHES THE GULF...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
AT THAT POINT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...THE GFS...THE NAM AND THE CMC
ALL IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN THE FURTHEST WEST.
THAT IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE...OFF. THE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL RUNS HINGE MOSTLY ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TO THE WEST AND THE
EAST OF SAID TROUGH. THE GFS AND THE CMC SHOW THE TROUGH
BYPASSING ISSAC AND THE TWO RIDGES CLOSING THE GAP BETWEEN THEM
LEAVING ISSAC BEHIND TO CONTINUE IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF BOTH LEAVE ENOUGH OF
A WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO ALLOW FOR A
NORTHERLY MOTION TOWARDS THE END OF THE TRACK. DISCOUNTING THE NAM
FOR ITS NOTORIOUS ISSUES IN THE TROPICS...AND WITH THE IDEA THAT
THE ECMWF WAS ONE OF...IF NOT THE BEST...PERFORMING MODELS IN THE
RECENT PAST SOME COMPARISONS WERE DONE ON THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE
12Z RUN YESTERDAY TOOK ISSAC INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
APALACHICOLA. THE 00Z RUN FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWS A LANDFALL
POINT NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER. THE 00Z RUN OF THE MODEL
DEFINITELY SHOWED A STRONGER ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR
THE PUSH FURTHER WEST AS THERE WAS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH IN THE TWO RUNS. THIS WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN THE NEXT RUN SINCE IT REMAINS ONE OF THE EASTERN MOST
MODELS AT THIS POINT. SHOULD IT SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST AND THE
OTHER MODELS CONTINUE THEIR WESTWARD SHOWING...ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HURRICANE CENTER ARE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT PLACED ON THE ECMWF SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO
THE CURRENT HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK. THIS WILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND
TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ISAAC...AND THEY CURRENTLY
REFLECT SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS
MENTIONED IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER DISCUSSION.

[Cyclenall]

gfs is king this year for sure. euro is number 2

Yeah, the Euro's crown is stained heavily now, I don't think early on it did well with Isaac at all but the late stages might be better, however with the last cycle of runs I'm not sure it will perform well again! With the 06z GFS showing the same as the previous one, New Orleans should be put under a watch now.

[perk]

gfs is king this year for sure. euro is number 2

Yeah, the Euro's crown is stained heavily now, I don't think early on it did well with Isaac at all but the late stages might be better, however with the last cycle of runs I'm not sure it will perform well again! With the 06z GFS showing the same as the previous one, New Orleans should be put under a watch now.

From the 5am disco.
AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

[Sabanic]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
555 AM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...


LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HURRICANE WATCHES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...AND
TROPICAL STORM AND/OR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
FARTHER INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WEST THIS MORNING...AND THE
OFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC REGARDING THE TRACK OF ISAAC HAS ALSO SHIFTED
FARTHER WEST. THE ENTIRE WFO MOBILE FCST AREA IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE FCST CONE...AND IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT ISAAC WILL IMPACT
OUR FCST AREA. PROJECTIONS STILL INDICATE THAT ISAAC WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT ISAAC WILL REACH CAT2 INTENSITY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 MPH. IT SHOULD BE REMEMBERED THAT
HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE DIFFICULT... ESPECIALLY AT LONGER
RANGES...AND ISAAC COULD BE STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISAAC WILL EVENTUALLY END UP BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN LANDFALL IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS NOTED...RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF
ISAAC...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FCST FROM NHC NOW BRINGS THE
HURRICANE ASHORE AROUND THE FL/AL BORDER AT 29/06Z. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS
ON THE CENTER OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM...THOSE LIVING
ANYWHERE WITHIN THE FCST CONE AND THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

[deltadog03]

Looks like NOLA and MS is certainly the target areas. Good job of the GFS to sniff the change out. I know its not set in stone yet, but man....this could get really ugly for them out there. I will say this, if it does take a track out there like the GFS is showing now, its pretty dang close to what the euro WAS showing, and I, admit, was thinking it was wrong and would correct east. The tropics will make you learn very quickly....

[Sabanic]

Looks like NOLA and MS is certainly the target areas. Good job of the GFS to sniff the change out. I know its not set in stone yet, but man....this could get really ugly for them out there. I will say this, if it does take a track out there like the GFS is showing now, its pretty dang close to what the euro WAS showing, and I, admit, was thinking it was wrong and would correct east. The tropics will make you learn very quickly....

So delta you don't think AL, and SW Al, which is in MS's backyard have anything to be concerned with? A first timer reading your first sentence would be led to believe that. Not flaming at all, and I have the utmost respect for your position, and experience, but the wording is not good. JMO. Bless you Brother.

[Dydion]

Does anyone have the latest Euro pics?

[tolakram]

Does anyone have the latest Euro pics?

Try this page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Euro came out a 2am, and the next run is at 2PM. Once a run is completed it shows up on the above site.

[Dydion]

Oh, I thought it came out every 6 hrs like the GFS. Thanks!

[Janie2006]

We know from past experience....a landfalling hurricane on the MS coast or even SE Louisiana will bring the bad NE quadrant of the storm over SW Alabama. That depends on the size and strength of said hurricane, but generally speaking a hit on the MS Coast or towards NOLA brings bad tidings to Mobile as well.

[monicaei]

Wheree can I find the pressure forecast on the latest GFS?