ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Texashawk]

Getting a little nervous here in Texas.... after all, the models have shifted 500+ miles, what's another 200 more?

[Sabanic]

Exactly wx . . . Thank you

What are the chances this moves even farther west? How large is this storm's windfield?

i would think the weaker it stays the further west it goes. if it stays like it is now it may well hit texas or even mexico as there will be nothing for the upper steering currents to grab.

Seeing as how there is no model support for this statement, what synoptical features on the models are you using to make this assessment? Please be mindful of the things said over the next few days as there are many who check these forums for information to stay "ahead of the curve" regarding model data.

[sphelps8681]

Since the storm is suppose to fairly big can someone point me to a site or tell how far out hurricane force winds might be.

[rainstorm]

i think its rather normal. if it stays weak it will simply ride the low level flow west. the gfs isnt far from texas already.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Running A 06z model check beyond the gfs has the gfdl landfalling around port fourchon with the lowest pressure around 976 and a max windspeed of 67 knots. It never really tightens that much and heads toward AR/OK near the end of the run. Previous landfall at 00z was between navarre beach and Santa Rosa Beach. So that was a big swing west.Hwrf on the other hand gets it down to 940mb and 105 knot winds which is very formidable. It goes in west of gfdl around lower st. Mary parish (Morgan city, berwick, Patterson). That's similar to where Andrew made landfall. If you never play with the fim model, and there are a ton of tools, the link below combines ensembles of gfs and fim, which stands for forecast improvement model, which you can play around with. Back out a level for tons of addl parameters. Fwiw, we are on standby here. Our evacuation would be to my house in pensacola which is just as sketchy to me right now as nola. We have gas, water, beer and other essentials in case we get stuck for a while. Its wait and see. As people clue in today, and if the threat for LA becomes more evident, the highways will be gridlocked by tomorrow afternoon. Link to those ensembles : http://www.hfip.org/data_ens/index.cgi?dsKey=fimens

Hey Steve good to see you again. So what you thinking with this? The real deal or a last minute turn towards AL/FL like Ivan or next big thing since Gustav? As far as evac traffic that gives me nightmares. Baton rouge interstate system was shutdown the other day due to wreck @ Essen cause all this road construction. Hell baton rouge was almost shut down cause of it. No way can the roads handle this right now.

[perk]

Getting a little nervous here in Texas.... after all, the models have shifted 500+ miles, what's another 200 more?

I'm gonna wait for the model runs today,especially the Euro and the GFS.

[Jevo]

12 NAM initialized



12z NAM +6 (Approaching 1st CONUS Landfall)



12z NAM +12

[BigB0882]

NAM seems to kick it due West between 6 and 12. I know, just the NAM. Can anyone interpret what it is showing as far as the ridging, short waves, etc since that is what it is really good for.

[Stormlover2012]

but in discussions they been bringing nam up

[Jevo]

but in discussions they been bringing nam up

Indeed, but just for it's synoptic readings.. Not track prediction

[CYCLONE MIKE]

While we wait for more images just thought would throw out there that our local nws office has updated our forecast and now put TS conditions.possible for Tuesday and wednesday. That's for ascension parish Just south of baton rouge btw.

[Steve]

Not sure Mike. Teleconnections from the b and t storms in the wpac from thurs indicated to me a nwfl/Al landfall. There were some mixed signals as to ridge strength in the sw atl, but it showed that there would be a stubborn push back from the east. Its up to the upstream movement now. There are reasonable arguments for a landfall anywhere from ST. George island to vermillion bay, la. I'm just going to chill and park my phone right here on the models thread for the 12z runs. Gut from last week was gulf county Fla to Jackson county ms. Now thinking between okaloosa co. And st. Mary parish which is a much larger spread. If the ecmwf joins the gfdl and pulls further left, we are probably talking landfall west of grand bay/moss point. The preceding is the opinion of this poster only and should be disclaimed as absolute speculation.

[BigB0882]

but in discussions they been bringing nam up

Yes but they also basically said they were ignoring the TC position in the NAM so they are using it for synoptics.

[Jevo]

12z NAM +24 (Ridge still in place)

EDIT: For those that are fairly new the ridge is depicted as the Brunt Sienna (sp) color on the map

[CYCLONE MIKE]

@ Steve
Well we shall see. Looks to be tough and might not have a better idea until 0z runs tonight

[BigB0882]

What are the 6z models showing in terms of timing? I am just curious, if this thing landfalls around SELA about what time it will come ashore. Wondering if things will go on as planned tomorrow or if they would need to give people the chance to get out so it isn't total gridlock early Tuesday and people get stuck on the road if it comes in that evening. I am a teacher so I am especially interested in whether school cancellations would happen Monday or if they would wait. All depends on the timing, I would think, so that is why I ask.

[Jevo]

12z NAM +30



12z NAM +36 (Trough starting to dig down a little.. possible ridge erosion starting)

[Jevo]

12z NAM +42

[HurrMark]

At 42 hrs a tad west of 06Z and much further west of 00Z.

[Jevo]

12z NAM +48 (Trough digging in now and the ridge looks like it may open up a weakness)