ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

Is it me or has this taken a jog to the WNW?

Looks like it just wobbled about 0.1 deg north in the last satellite frame. Still moving west.

[tailgater]

WX57 , is it me or does it look like the LLc may have decoupled because of land interaction from the mid level part of the storm and if so would it likely couple right back up to a stacked storm soon after it reaches open water?

[KWT]

ECM eventually develops what maybe a hurricane on the EPAC side from the remains of Ernesto.

Interesting to see whether the system keeps itself going for long enough.

[wxman57]

WX57 , is it me or does it look like the LLc may have decoupled because of land interaction from the mid level part of the storm and if so would it likely couple right back up to a stacked storm soon after it reaches open water?

I don't see any evidence of decoupling on a combo sat pic/surface obs plot. Winds match the satellite representation.

[somethingfunny]

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/plane.html

I believe they're excellent aircraft and safe to operate, but these technical problems just seem to be scrubbing missions so much more recently than has ever happened before.

Imagine if the recon flight that recorded Charley's surprising rapid intensification just before landfall in 2004 had been grounded due to technical issues. Charley would have come ashore as an operationally assessed high-end Cat2 or low-end Cat 3 and folks would have been very upset when they found out the recon plane was grounded... that would have gotten the appropriations rolling for newer aircraft. These C130s we're using right now are like half a century old.

But then again, and I'm not trying to get political in any way beyond the immediate scope of recon funding.... if Belize and Mexico aren't contributing funding to the NHC or the Hurricane Hunter program, I don't think they really ought to expect the same type of round-the-clock reconnaissance from the us that we have for US threats. It would be nice to have had an airplane in there last night to capture the rapid intensification, and the interesting eye clearing over land, to gather valuable research about intensification and land decay for the next storm.... I understand we can't just spend a ton of money on a research mission to learn more about future hurricanes, but we did just land a two billion dollar spacecraft on Mars to continue an ongoing research mission.

I'm just about losing out on the recon data last night. It would have been a very good time to have an airplane in that storm.

[tropicwatch]

Pretty good radar presentation out of Sabancuy.

Sabancuy Radar

[JGrin87]

Looks like it is about to head back out to sea. What are the chances E re-intinsifies?

[Kingarabian]

If Ernesto regenerates in the EPAC, does he keep his name?

[Portastorm]

If Ernesto regenerates in the EPAC, does he keep his name?

Nope. Will be given a new name per the EPAC roster.

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 082034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 91.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CELESTUN TO BARRA DE NAUTLA ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND LATER ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. CIUDAD DEL CARMEN RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...93 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 12 INCHES
OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO AND VERACRUZ. ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT45 KNHC 082036
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

ERNESTO HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED
APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN...WHICH IS VERY NEAR
THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS 45 KT. RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GIVEN
THE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT
OF RE-STRENGTHENING WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE
STAYS OVER THE WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT
ERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND
THEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY. GIVEN THE
RELATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK TO THE COASTLINE...ONLY A SLIGHT
DIRECTIONAL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ERNESTO SPENDS OVER
WATER...AND ITS LANDFALL INTENSITY.

AFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE
FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT
270/11. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS
LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL
PREDICTION. THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT
BASIN. THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.9N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 18.9N 93.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST
36H 10/0600Z 18.2N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 18.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[brunota2003]

If Ernesto regenerates in the EPAC, does he keep his name?

Nope. Will be given a new name per the EPAC roster.

If he keeps the same low level circulation, he keeps his name. If the LLC dissipates and a new one forms, that is when the name changes.

[Portastorm]

Brunota2003, thank you for the correction and my apologies for the error.

Per this link:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html

The rule used to be that if the tropical storm or hurricane moved into a different basin (see F1 for more about the basins), then it was renamed to whatever name was next on the list for the area. The last time that this occurred was in July 1996 when Atlantic basin Tropical Storm Cesar moved across Central America and was renamed Northeast Pacific basin Tropical Storm Douglas. The last time that a Northeast Pacific system moved into the Atlantic basin was in June 1989 when Cosme became Allison.

However, these rules have now changed at the National Hurricane Center and if the system remains a tropical cyclone as it moves across Central America, then it will keep the original name. Only if the tropical cyclone dissipates with just a tropical disturbance remaining, will the hurricane warning center give the system a new name assuming it becomes a tropical cyclone once again in its new basin.

[brunota2003]

No problem!

[Dave]

I don't see recon going to Ernesto anymore due to Ernesto still being to close to the coast if he's even off of it yet.

[somethingfunny]

That scenario has not happened since the rules were changed. Will it happen this time?

(I doubt it very much, but you never know)

[brunota2003]

Ernesto still has a great structure as it is starting to move back out onto the water...and convection is starting to blossom over the southern half of the circulation. Banding is great, outflow is looking good...With the NHC thinking it'll peak at 60 knots before landfall, and admitting any deviations from the track (even just slight) impact how long it has over the water...I can't help but wonder why the hurricane warnings were dropped. The system could rapidly spin back up, and if it decides to go a little farther to the north, those extra 5 knots could easily be reached.

Better to be safe than sorry?

[brunota2003]

Plane just departed Keesler, enroute to Ernesto!

[brunota2003]

Hello beautiful

000
URNT15 KNHC 082207
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 02 20120808
215830 2951N 08916W 5323 05403 0293 -035 -068 234010 012 /// /// 03
215900 2949N 08917W 5223 05553 0304 -043 -078 224008 010 /// /// 03
215930 2947N 08918W 5130 05695 0312 -054 -081 232008 008 /// /// 03
220000 2946N 08919W 5041 05836 0321 -057 -097 219008 009 /// /// 03
220030 2944N 08920W 4941 05994 0330 -066 -103 217010 010 /// /// 03
220100 2942N 08920W 4858 06127 0338 -077 -107 217006 009 /// /// 03
220130 2940N 08921W 4785 06237 0343 -082 -123 194006 007 /// /// 03
220200 2939N 08922W 4704 06372 0353 -090 -132 180007 008 /// /// 03
220230 2937N 08923W 4649 06465 0358 -095 -141 169006 007 /// /// 03
220300 2935N 08924W 4587 06568 0363 -103 -143 180005 006 /// /// 03
220330 2934N 08925W 4499 06720 0374 -114 -132 220005 007 /// /// 03
220400 2932N 08925W 4440 06819 0380 -119 -132 218005 005 /// /// 03
220430 2930N 08926W 4386 06913 0388 -125 -136 217003 004 /// /// 03
220500 2928N 08927W 4339 06997 0394 -125 -142 287003 003 /// /// 03
220530 2927N 08928W 4285 07095 0400 -130 -149 270003 004 /// /// 03
220600 2925N 08929W 4224 07206 0408 -136 -157 260005 005 /// /// 03
220630 2923N 08930W 4162 07318 0416 -145 -161 279006 006 /// /// 03
220700 2921N 08931W 4120 07397 0422 -153 -161 274005 006 /// /// 03
220730 2920N 08932W 4074 07481 0427 -160 -160 254004 004 /// /// 05
220800 2918N 08932W 4032 07558 0432 -165 -180 251004 004 /// /// 03
$$
;

Here's #1:

000
URNT15 KNHC 082157
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 01 20120808
214830 3021N 08858W 9228 00821 0130 +227 +178 210005 005 /// /// 03
214900 3020N 08900W 8956 01081 0131 +219 +145 217003 004 /// /// 03
214930 3019N 08901W 8690 01343 0132 +196 +144 255004 005 /// /// 03
215000 3018N 08902W 8423 01616 0136 +179 +126 268005 005 /// /// 03
215030 3017N 08903W 8166 01876 0136 +160 +111 299005 005 /// /// 03
215100 3015N 08904W 7888 02170 0136 +140 +099 285004 005 /// /// 03
215130 3013N 08905W 7605 02475 0130 +123 +086 284005 006 /// /// 03
215200 3012N 08905W 7369 02739 0126 +111 +070 271006 007 /// /// 03
215230 3010N 08906W 7139 03010 0126 +099 +057 251007 008 /// /// 03
215300 3009N 08907W 6952 03228 0127 +087 +042 272007 008 /// /// 03
215330 3007N 08908W 6773 03446 0126 +076 +022 285009 010 /// /// 03
215400 3005N 08909W 6586 03682 0124 +065 +008 272011 012 /// /// 03
215430 3004N 08909W 6416 03898 0132 +050 +005 259009 011 /// /// 03
215500 3002N 08910W 6263 04095 0130 +038 -005 258009 010 /// /// 03
215530 3000N 08911W 6116 04289 0124 +030 -010 266007 010 /// /// 03
215600 2959N 08912W 5934 04528 0122 +014 -015 259007 007 /// /// 03
215630 2957N 08913W 5800 04717 0124 +002 -028 249006 007 /// /// 03
215700 2955N 08914W 5669 04900 0121 -009 -038 245009 010 /// /// 03
215730 2954N 08914W 5539 05086 0122 -019 -052 234009 010 /// /// 03
215800 2952N 08915W 5431 05241 0283 -028 -074 251012 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

I got HDOB's if no one is taking them, and pictures as well.

[brunota2003]

Go for it...Dave may pop in at some point. I'll be lurking mostly, in and out. I posted #2 (I was just randomly checking...yesterday's had all 360000s for wind data and I noticed that it looked different )