ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Pearl River]

According to the GFS, if that long fetch of South, then Southwest wind, cities like Mandeville and Slidell, on the northshore of Lake Pontchartrain, could be under water.

This is not an official forecast, jmho based on the time the GFS is showing the storm parallel the coast.

[Hurricaneman]

ridge breaks @66hrs look to go NE

Nope, gets caught under the ridge and looks like its headed for Beaumont, there is a fork in the roads situation, GFS gets caught by the ridge and heads west while the Euro heads north through the trough, its a really close call as to which is right

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[thatwhichisnt]

The rain totals will be sickening. It will sit on top of south la for days

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[Ntxw]

After that it's fully inland and going up east Texas. Wnw

[Portastorm]

Isaac looks to finally be picked up by the westerlies at H-105 and lifting north through east Texas.

[gqhebert]

wow....so se texas is in play according to gfs.... and the west trend continues


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigB0882]

this is more west this run

Hardly at all. It rides along the LA coast exactly as the last run did. The only difference is it starts to life up around Lake Charles in the 6z run but in this run it gets to Beaumont before doing so. All the same areas are affected as before, just some places (like Beaumont) would get hit harder this run. IMO.

[wxwatcher1999]

ok i am going to fill gas tank up today here in Port Arthur

[Dean4Storms]

Will be interesting to see if the 12z ECMWF agrees or sticks to its guns!

[Steve]

That's a dismal run for the city. Water piles up along the coast and funnels (sp?) into lake pontchartrain through lake borgne and the rigolets. Meanwhile, strong ne winds ahead of the storm pile lake waters on the southshore. We have the best protection we have ever had, and the Mississippi river gulf outlet is now closed. BUT nothing has been tested yet. Any levee failures could mean a similar situation to 2005. Making things worse, the westbank of nola was relatively unscathed as was the bayou (lafourche and tetrebonne parishes.) so many of us shacked up with friends and family in those areas and were still able to work on our lives and houses from a 50 mile radius. Katrina faded east of the city. Isaac, in the 12z run does not. So other areas could potentially be in trouble if this verifies. A little known fact during Ike, which passed 100 miles south of the sc la coast, was that over ten thousand dwellings flooded in south tetrrbonne. We just don't have the wetlands to buffer Surges anymore. If things progress to where it appears this will verify, and I decide to stay, ill be moving the vehicles to a mid level floor in my CBD parking garage. Damn I don't feel like dealing with some of these possibilities again

[Rgv20]

A few of the 0zECMWF Ensembles seem to agree on a more western track....wont be surprised if today's 12 run trends to the west..

0zECMWF Ensemble Spread +120hrs

[wxwatcher1999]

does anyone think the cone will be shifted west today and if they do so what time will that be?

[RL3AO]

Shows trough axis (exaggerated southward) and the building/closing ridge over the SE.

[Senobia]

does anyone think the cone will be shifted west today and if they do so what time will that be?

Extreme SETX is already in the Navy's cone.

[Jevo]

This afternoons G-IV flight for 0z model guidance

[ROCK]

I have been saying it for days now...Euro sniffed out western solution first, we saw stalls near the coast and now we are seeing the progression..upper Texas coast better be paying attention!!!

[HurricaneBrain]

Took my eyes off of this for a whole 24 hours. Come back to this. Unbelievable.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Hurricane center has 11 AM track over Mississippi coastline...have to believe that will shift to NOLA area for 5 pm based on latest GFS run. The westward shifts are obviously a trend, and the storm will spend the better part of the next three days over the gulf gathering strength. Emergency managers really need to get things going today IMO as you can't order a full scale evacuation of NOLA tomorrow and allow for adequate time to get everyone out.


I would hope and expect we should be hearing from Governor Jindahl sooner rather than later today regarding this growing threat....

[Senobia]

I missed the forecast intensity on these TX/LA runs. Anyone know?

[gqhebert]

I missed the forecast intensity on these TX/LA runs. Anyone know?

cat 2-3


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.