ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

I'm out

I'll get it from here.

[wxsouth]

I see they got a dropsonde in! Looks like flight level winds were 70 knots at the drop site, surface winds were 37 knots. That's a reduction of around 0.53 (to be expected with this storm having almost no convection). That is assuming that the dropsonde stayed in the area of max winds (the 'sonde was labeled "rain band").

That drop was from the weaker inbound leg, not the 70+ knot outbound leg.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090237
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 29 20120809
022830 2029N 09212W 8429 01550 0075 +165 +159 108047 049 035 000 00
022900 2028N 09214W 8429 01549 0074 +165 +159 107047 048 035 001 00
022930 2028N 09215W 8429 01550 0075 +165 +160 107048 048 035 002 00
023000 2027N 09217W 8431 01549 0075 +166 +159 105047 048 034 001 00
023030 2026N 09219W 8430 01550 0074 +170 +158 103045 047 034 000 00
023100 2025N 09221W 8429 01549 0073 +169 +159 101044 045 035 000 00
023130 2024N 09223W 8430 01548 0073 +167 +159 100044 045 035 001 00
023200 2023N 09225W 8429 01549 0071 +165 +161 098044 045 033 000 00
023230 2022N 09227W 8429 01548 0072 +165 +162 097045 046 033 001 00
023300 2021N 09228W 8429 01548 0070 +166 +162 094046 046 035 001 00
023330 2021N 09230W 8433 01540 0068 +167 +162 093046 046 035 001 00
023400 2020N 09232W 8432 01541 0065 +171 +162 091045 046 034 002 00
023430 2019N 09234W 8427 01545 0062 +171 +162 088045 045 034 003 00
023500 2018N 09236W 8426 01544 0064 +170 +163 090045 046 031 001 00
023530 2017N 09238W 8433 01539 0063 +170 +163 088044 045 032 002 00
023600 2016N 09240W 8429 01540 0060 +173 +161 085045 045 032 001 00
023630 2016N 09240W 8429 01540 0059 +170 +162 084044 045 035 001 00
023700 2014N 09243W 8425 01543 0058 +170 +162 082044 044 032 002 00
023730 2013N 09245W 8432 01534 0059 +166 +165 082043 044 032 004 00
023800 2012N 09247W 8432 01535 //// +144 //// 082045 046 032 009 01
$$
;

[lester]

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF YUCATAN
MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 91.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

[Kingarabian]

[brunota2003]

Edited

That drop was from the weaker inbound leg, not the 70+ knot outbound leg.

Touche! I was looking and looking for it on GE but it never appeared...I was wanting to double check the flight level winds, I have a hard time remembering what code is what...It appeared after the VDM drop, so I *thought* it was from the outbound leg. In that case, that's a bummer it wasn't!

[wxsouth]

What we can see from that drop is that the SFMR appears to be doing a good job at estimating surface winds. Drop had 37 knots at surface....SFMR was at 38-39 knots in that area. Therefore, the ~55 knot SFMR readings on the outbound leg are probably pretty representative.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090247
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 30 20120809
023830 2012N 09249W 8429 01535 //// +146 //// 077047 048 037 012 01
023900 2011N 09251W 8430 01534 0059 +160 +160 079047 048 037 007 01
023930 2010N 09253W 8430 01532 0056 +160 +160 077046 047 036 010 01
024000 2009N 09255W 8432 01534 0061 +160 +160 075045 047 037 009 01
024030 2008N 09257W 8426 01538 0062 +150 +150 076046 048 041 016 01
024100 2007N 09259W 8420 01540 //// +140 //// 078049 050 043 016 01
024130 2006N 09301W 8433 01530 0060 +160 +160 076047 048 039 012 01
024200 2005N 09303W 8427 01537 0059 +160 +160 072048 049 037 008 01
024230 2004N 09305W 8430 01530 //// +142 //// 071047 049 047 016 01
024300 2003N 09307W 8436 01527 //// +148 //// 073045 047 048 018 01
024330 2002N 09308W 8425 01537 0058 +160 +160 073045 045 044 010 01
024400 2002N 09310W 8430 01534 //// +143 //// 058042 047 051 013 01
024430 2001N 09312W 8430 01534 //// +155 //// 059043 045 051 012 01
024500 2000N 09314W 8439 01527 0057 +170 +170 050044 045 039 007 01
024530 1959N 09316W 8426 01539 //// +161 //// 049043 044 039 007 01
024600 1958N 09318W 8439 01523 0054 +170 +170 039042 043 038 007 01
024630 1957N 09320W 8425 01547 //// +161 //// 049045 046 041 005 01
024700 1956N 09322W 8434 01533 0058 +170 +170 052041 044 040 003 01
024730 1955N 09324W 8429 01539 0056 +170 +170 055038 039 035 001 01
024800 1954N 09325W 8428 01540 0058 +170 +170 054039 039 036 001 01
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Yep...good enough for the flight crew, and good enough for the NHC to bump the 11 pm intensity up to 55 knots.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

...ERNESTO FINALLY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS STORM GETTING STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 91.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ EASTWARD TO CHILITEPEC. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTH OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADARS FROM MEXICO TO BE NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION... ACCOMPANIED
BY FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER
LAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TABASCO...VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND
NORTHERN OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

THE ROBUST CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS FINALLY MOVED OVER THE WATERS
OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL
CARMEN MEXICO. INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM INLAND AREAS
TO OVER WATER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND SEVERAL RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS
OF 55-57 KT IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOUT 30 NMI OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. ERNESTO IS MOVING A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
GETS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 18.8N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 18.7N 93.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 95.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1200Z 17.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 17.6N 98.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND
72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Kingarabian]

[JamesCaneTracker]

Ernesto appears to be wrapping up pretty quickly tonight! He isn't wasting any time this time! I guess he Learned never to be lazy when you have a chance to be ALL you can be! lol

[brunota2003]

The [img] to the right of the URL should be [/img] then it'll work!

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090257
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 31 20120809
024830 1953N 09327W 8429 01539 0059 +170 +170 051038 040 036 002 01
024900 1953N 09329W 8428 01540 0057 +175 +171 054038 038 036 002 00
024930 1952N 09331W 8432 01537 0057 +175 +172 051038 038 037 000 00
025000 1951N 09333W 8425 01544 0057 +172 +171 050036 039 036 002 00
025030 1950N 09335W 8431 01535 0055 +175 +165 049036 037 037 001 00
025100 1949N 09337W 8428 01541 0056 +175 +164 046036 037 037 000 00
025130 1948N 09338W 8429 01535 0052 +179 +164 045035 036 036 001 00
025200 1947N 09340W 8428 01540 0055 +175 +170 041038 038 037 001 00
025230 1946N 09342W 8430 01535 0056 +170 +170 037038 039 034 001 01
025300 1945N 09344W 8422 01544 0056 +172 +166 035034 037 033 002 03
025330 1944N 09343W 8436 01530 0058 +172 +167 036032 033 029 003 00
025400 1943N 09342W 8425 01545 0060 +170 +170 042034 038 033 002 01
025430 1942N 09340W 8429 01538 0055 +179 +168 045033 033 031 001 00
025500 1941N 09339W 8430 01539 0056 +180 +163 043033 033 029 000 00
025530 1940N 09337W 8431 01537 0055 +178 +162 045033 034 031 001 00
025600 1940N 09336W 8432 01537 0054 +177 +168 044033 034 033 001 00
025630 1939N 09334W 8430 01538 0055 +174 +171 042033 034 034 001 00
025700 1938N 09333W 8430 01537 0057 +170 +170 038036 038 036 003 01
025730 1937N 09331W 8426 01538 //// +155 //// 028038 040 035 004 01
025800 1937N 09330W 8434 01528 //// +159 //// 034035 039 034 006 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF YUCATAN
MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 91.8W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

Glad they upped it up to a warning once again.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090307
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 32 20120809
025830 1936N 09328W 8433 01530 0053 +170 +170 039036 039 038 003 01
025900 1935N 09327W 8429 01529 0052 +160 +160 050037 040 034 005 01
025930 1934N 09326W 8431 01532 0051 +171 +170 057036 036 033 002 00
030000 1933N 09324W 8430 01528 0051 +160 +160 056035 036 036 006 01
030030 1933N 09323W 8429 01530 0050 +160 +160 049036 037 036 008 01
030100 1932N 09321W 8435 01527 0049 +174 +169 051035 037 035 003 00
030130 1931N 09320W 8428 01533 0051 +170 +170 054036 037 034 002 01
030200 1930N 09319W 8429 01530 0049 +170 +170 053036 036 032 001 01
030230 1930N 09317W 8426 01532 0047 +171 +171 053037 038 031 000 00
030300 1929N 09316W 8430 01528 0045 +171 +171 055035 037 029 002 00
030330 1928N 09314W 8435 01521 0045 +170 +170 055038 038 029 002 01
030400 1927N 09313W 8429 01528 0045 +170 +170 051038 038 031 001 01
030430 1927N 09312W 8430 01526 0044 +173 +163 050040 041 030 001 00
030500 1926N 09310W 8434 01521 0043 +172 +164 055042 042 028 001 00
030530 1925N 09309W 8430 01523 0044 +160 +160 054039 042 029 002 01
030600 1925N 09308W 8434 01519 //// +150 //// 051036 040 031 009 01
030630 1924N 09306W 8440 01511 0045 +160 +160 052037 038 035 002 01
030700 1923N 09305W 8428 01526 0044 +170 +170 051037 038 033 002 01
030730 1922N 09303W 8427 01523 0041 +160 +160 050039 039 031 001 01
030800 1921N 09302W 8432 01517 0039 +160 +160 050038 040 031 002 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090317
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 33 20120809
030830 1921N 09301W 8433 01517 0037 +171 +169 051039 039 033 001 00
030900 1920N 09259W 8427 01521 0033 +173 +172 052039 040 033 003 00
030930 1919N 09258W 8434 01512 0034 +170 +170 046042 043 036 002 01
031000 1919N 09256W 8425 01518 0033 +170 +170 044041 043 036 003 01
031030 1918N 09255W 8429 01510 0029 +170 +170 046042 042 036 005 01
031100 1917N 09254W 8428 01511 0025 +170 +170 047041 042 035 000 01
031130 1916N 09252W 8433 01505 0023 +170 +170 047040 041 035 000 01
031200 1915N 09251W 8433 01502 0021 +170 +170 048042 043 036 002 01
031230 1915N 09249W 8428 01505 0020 +170 +170 048042 043 038 002 01
031300 1914N 09248W 8430 01501 0018 +170 +170 046043 044 037 002 01
031330 1913N 09247W 8427 01502 0015 +170 +170 044043 044 038 002 01
031400 1912N 09245W 8430 01494 0011 +170 +170 039042 043 041 002 01
031430 1912N 09244W 8433 01491 0010 +170 +170 037042 043 040 002 01
031500 1911N 09242W 8428 01494 0008 +170 +170 036043 044 039 002 05
031530 1910N 09241W 8429 01489 0004 +170 +170 037043 044 039 002 01
031600 1909N 09239W 8432 01482 9999 +170 +170 039043 043 040 002 01
031630 1908N 09238W 8431 01482 9995 +170 +170 038042 043 041 002 01
031700 1908N 09237W 8431 01476 9989 +170 +170 041043 044 041 000 01
031730 1907N 09235W 8428 01477 9988 +170 +170 041045 046 041 002 01
031800 1906N 09234W 8427 01472 9976 +170 +170 041044 046 040 004 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]