ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I can't do this...I just can't possibly go the full 30 knot increase that almost always occurs in the 24 hours after the indicator pops up. That's 85 knots from the current intensity! Yikes.

So it appeared around 7 or 8 pm EDT, and going out 6 hours puts a "start time" of around 1 or 2 am EDT. Due to land proximity, I am not going to forecast 85 knots prior to landfall...I will tone it down to 75 knots by the time landfall occurs, instead. This still reaches the 30 knots for RI to occur from the 5/8 pm intensity (45 knots), but is only an increase of 20 knots from the current 11 pm intensity (55 knots). If Ernesto moves further away from the coastline, the full 30 knots could be realized, which would put the secondary peak intensity at at least 85 knots.

EDIT: Before I even post (I'm leaving the above to show my initial thoughts), I'm already editing this, and am just going to go the full 30 knots. 85 knots for the secondary peak. Reasoning: Looking at the latest sat images, there is a cell blowing up north of where I estimate the center...and there is a warm spot forming in the convection. If that is what I think it is, then yeah.

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090327
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120809
031830 1905N 09232W 8426 01466 9973 +170 +170 041040 045 041 004 01
031900 1905N 09231W 8433 01457 9966 +170 +170 032035 038 041 003 01
031930 1904N 09229W 8433 01451 9957 +183 +176 018032 034 040 004 00
032000 1903N 09228W 8432 01451 9946 +198 +167 012034 035 036 002 00
032030 1902N 09226W 8437 01444 9947 +195 +173 022033 034 032 003 00
032100 1901N 09225W 8429 01451 9946 +190 +177 036025 030 029 002 00
032130 1900N 09223W 8428 01451 9944 +190 +178 036024 026 021 004 00
032200 1900N 09222W 8430 01446 9944 +191 +175 036021 022 021 002 00
032230 1859N 09220W 8429 01446 9941 +195 +172 037019 020 016 002 00
032300 1858N 09219W 8429 01445 9939 +198 +175 038018 019 016 003 00
032330 1857N 09217W 8429 01446 9940 +193 +179 038014 016 015 003 00
032400 1856N 09216W 8429 01446 9943 +189 +184 059012 014 013 002 00
032430 1855N 09214W 8423 01452 9946 +186 +185 079010 011 011 002 03
032500 1854N 09214W 8428 01449 9945 +189 +183 102011 012 010 001 00
032530 1852N 09213W 8436 01443 9949 +187 +185 113009 010 008 002 00
032600 1851N 09213W 8430 01450 9951 +186 +182 104006 008 010 000 00
032630 1849N 09214W 8427 01456 9953 +187 +182 127004 006 006 001 00
032700 1848N 09214W 8432 01455 9957 +185 +183 170002 004 012 000 00
032730 1846N 09214W 8431 01456 9957 +185 +181 278003 006 009 001 00
032800 1844N 09214W 8425 01462 9959 +185 +177 285008 009 004 002 03
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[JamesCaneTracker]

Based on the last 2 recon fixes... It's possible Ernesto is moving just north of due west...

Current Area of lowest pressure - 993.9mb - 1858N
Last Recon Fix based on VDM - 18°49'N

Edit: but based on where the Wind shift took place it's moving south of due west and looks to be making landfall in the next couple of hours if it continues!

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090337
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120809
032830 1844N 09212W 8429 01459 9960 +184 +180 249009 010 /// /// 03
032900 1845N 09211W 8430 01457 9959 +184 +182 198007 008 007 002 03
032930 1847N 09210W 8430 01456 9957 +184 +179 153011 012 012 003 00
033000 1848N 09210W 8430 01456 9955 +189 +177 150015 017 019 002 00
033030 1850N 09209W 8430 01457 9957 +187 +180 149018 020 020 002 00
033100 1851N 09208W 8429 01459 9958 +187 +179 145023 023 026 002 00
033130 1853N 09207W 8430 01456 9957 +190 +176 145027 028 031 001 00
033200 1854N 09206W 8430 01457 9959 +186 +176 147033 034 032 004 00
033230 1856N 09205W 8430 01459 9960 +186 +176 145037 038 036 004 00
033300 1857N 09204W 8426 01462 9965 +180 +180 142039 041 038 004 01
033330 1859N 09204W 8433 01460 9969 +170 +170 138042 043 040 004 01
033400 1900N 09203W 8428 01466 9971 +170 +170 137045 046 040 005 01
033430 1902N 09202W 8429 01467 9975 +170 +170 137048 049 042 004 01
033500 1904N 09201W 8430 01468 9983 +170 +170 137051 051 050 008 01
033530 1905N 09200W 8431 01476 //// +147 //// 137059 067 055 014 01
033600 1907N 09159W 8426 01474 //// +141 //// 129074 083 056 022 01
033630 1908N 09158W 8433 01468 //// +136 //// 132084 086 055 012 01
033700 1910N 09157W 8440 01462 //// +147 //// 136079 083 058 009 01
033730 1911N 09157W 8429 01479 9998 +160 +160 139081 084 059 005 01
033800 1913N 09156W 8433 01481 0002 +160 +160 138080 081 059 006 01
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[JamesCaneTracker]

Recon is now finding 86kt winds at flight level where last pass they were finding winds in the 70kt range!

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090347
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120809
033830 1914N 09155W 8424 01494 0007 +160 +160 135077 079 059 007 01
033900 1916N 09154W 8429 01494 //// +144 //// 134074 077 057 014 04
033930 1917N 09153W 8431 01495 //// +139 //// 132079 082 057 015 01
034000 1919N 09152W 8427 01500 //// +142 //// 133074 082 056 015 01
034030 1920N 09151W 8436 01495 //// +137 //// 129079 081 053 014 01
034100 1922N 09151W 8430 01505 //// +135 //// 129075 078 053 017 01
034130 1923N 09150W 8432 01507 //// +135 //// 126075 075 050 015 01
034200 1924N 09149W 8426 01517 //// +136 //// 124079 083 048 012 01
034230 1926N 09148W 8431 01512 //// +132 //// 122083 084 049 019 01
034300 1927N 09147W 8428 01518 //// +131 //// 120080 083 046 019 01
034330 1928N 09147W 8431 01518 //// +139 //// 120078 079 045 008 01
034400 1930N 09146W 8430 01522 0054 +150 +150 120077 078 045 008 01
034430 1931N 09145W 8429 01524 0057 +150 +150 121074 075 044 008 01
034500 1932N 09144W 8429 01527 0056 +150 +150 122072 074 043 006 01
034530 1934N 09143W 8432 01527 0057 +150 +150 122069 071 041 007 01
034600 1935N 09143W 8430 01530 0060 +160 +160 122066 068 042 007 01
034630 1937N 09142W 8430 01530 0055 +165 +160 124065 067 040 006 00
034700 1938N 09141W 8428 01535 0056 +165 +159 124062 063 040 006 00
034730 1940N 09140W 8430 01535 0058 +165 +159 124060 062 039 005 00
034800 1941N 09139W 8430 01537 0058 +169 +156 121060 060 038 005 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

[brunota2003]

Recon needs to exit the storm and climb to 700 mb...one pass 74, now 86...who's going for 98?

[JamesCaneTracker]

Pressure is remaining steady state for now so you would think it wouldn't be able to gain to much more strength before the pressure starts falling... Personally with the way it looks and the way it's acting (RI) I fully expect that band to finish wrapping around the center and then the pressure to start bottoming out... We will see if it does!

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090357
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120809
034830 1942N 09138W 8428 01539 0058 +170 +155 118060 060 038 003 00
034900 1944N 09138W 8430 01537 0060 +170 +156 116059 060 037 003 00
034930 1945N 09137W 8428 01541 0060 +170 +156 117060 060 036 002 00
035000 1946N 09136W 8432 01538 0063 +170 +156 116060 060 036 002 00
035030 1948N 09135W 8430 01541 0064 +169 +157 115059 061 036 002 00
035100 1949N 09134W 8429 01543 0065 +169 +160 115057 057 035 003 00
035130 1951N 09134W 8430 01544 0069 +160 +160 115056 057 035 003 01
035200 1952N 09133W 8432 01543 0071 +160 +160 114055 057 035 002 01
035230 1953N 09132W 8430 01546 0072 +165 +158 113055 055 034 003 00
035300 1955N 09131W 8429 01547 0074 +164 +158 114055 055 033 001 00
035330 1956N 09131W 8432 01545 0074 +160 +159 115054 055 032 001 00
035400 1957N 09130W 8428 01550 0077 +160 +160 115053 054 031 002 01
035430 1959N 09129W 8430 01550 0080 +160 +160 116051 053 029 002 01
035500 2000N 09128W 8429 01554 0077 +166 +156 118049 050 030 001 00
035530 2002N 09127W 8430 01555 0080 +167 +155 120049 049 028 002 00
035600 2003N 09126W 8429 01556 0080 +167 +154 120050 050 030 000 00
035630 2004N 09126W 8430 01555 0081 +170 +153 120050 051 031 001 00
035700 2006N 09125W 8429 01555 0079 +170 +151 119052 052 031 000 00
035730 2007N 09124W 8432 01554 0080 +173 +150 119051 052 029 001 00
035800 2009N 09123W 8428 01560 0080 +175 +149 117051 052 031 000 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

SFMR peaked out at 59 knots (with a low rain rate). Using the 0.85 reduction for flight level to surface, from earlier, yields 72 knots at the surface (max flight level winds of 86 knots). Very close to hurricane strength, if the SFMR didn't miss higher winds.

[Kingarabian]

[brunota2003]

Pressure actually rose some...996 on that dropsonde with winds of 9 knots (so maybe 995).

000
UZNT13 KNHC 090401
XXAA 59038 99188 70922 04682 99996 26216 24509 00538 ///// /////
92649 22412 25009 85384 19608 25002 88999 77999
31313 09608 80327
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1876N09223W 0329 MBL WND 24509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
007 995843 WL150 25009 083 REL 1876N09224W 032733 SPG 1876N09224W
032848 =
XXBB 59038 99188 70922 04682 00996 26216 11850 19608 22843 18404
21212 00996 24509 11919 25509 22855 20502 33843 28004
31313 09608 80327
61616 AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1876N09223W 0329 MBL WND 24509 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
007 995843 WL150 25009 083 REL 1876N09224W 032733 SPG 1876N09224W
032848 =
;

[JamesCaneTracker]

Looks like Recon is heading out... Please tell me it's just so they can climb to a higher altitude and not that they are leaving the system cause the mission is over! Just when Ernesto is getting to work they finish the mission!

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT12 KNHC 090401
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 09/03:27:20Z
B. 18 deg 47 min N
092 deg 14 min W
C. 850 mb 1386 m
D. 41 kt
E. 311 deg 39 nm
F. 040 deg 46 kt
G. 315 deg 28 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1526 m
J. 19 C / 1525 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF306 1105A ERNESTO OB 13
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 03:36:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 320 / 20 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 04:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 3:27:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°47'N 92°14'W (18.7833N 92.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (117 km) to the NE (40°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,386m (4,547ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 40° at 46kts (From the NE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:36:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:36:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (320°) from the flight level center
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 04:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 11
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 3:27:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°47'N 92°14'W (18.7833N 92.2333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 72 miles (117 km) to the NE (40°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,386m (4,547ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NW (311°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 40° at 46kts (From the NE at ~ 52.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the NW (315°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:36:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 3:36:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NW (320°) from the flight level center

[Kingarabian]

000
URNT15 KNHC 090407
AF306 1105A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120809
035830 2010N 09122W 8429 01558 0081 +175 +143 115050 051 031 000 00
035900 2011N 09122W 8429 01558 0080 +175 +142 116049 050 032 001 00
035930 2013N 09121W 8430 01560 0083 +175 +145 117048 049 032 001 00
040000 2014N 09120W 8429 01563 0085 +179 +140 117048 048 030 001 00
040030 2016N 09119W 8429 01565 0086 +180 +137 117048 048 030 002 00
040100 2017N 09118W 8431 01565 0087 +180 +136 117047 048 031 002 00
040130 2018N 09117W 8428 01569 0089 +180 +131 116048 049 029 002 00
040200 2020N 09117W 8432 01566 0089 +184 +133 118048 048 029 002 00
040230 2021N 09116W 8434 01565 0088 +185 +138 121047 048 030 002 03
040300 2023N 09116W 8423 01574 0088 +185 +130 119046 046 /// /// 03
040330 2024N 09117W 8432 01566 0087 +185 +129 117046 047 022 005 03
040400 2023N 09119W 8431 01566 0087 +183 +139 116045 046 030 001 00
040430 2023N 09121W 8429 01568 0087 +183 +141 115045 045 030 002 00
040500 2023N 09123W 8432 01565 0089 +178 +142 113046 046 031 001 00
040530 2023N 09126W 8428 01568 0090 +180 +138 112047 048 030 002 00
040600 2023N 09128W 8429 01567 0089 +177 +144 113047 048 031 002 00
040630 2023N 09130W 8432 01563 0088 +175 +146 113048 049 031 002 00
040700 2023N 09132W 8426 01569 0090 +175 +147 111048 049 033 001 00
040730 2023N 09134W 8430 01566 0091 +175 +149 111050 050 034 000 00
040800 2023N 09136W 8430 01566 0091 +173 +150 111049 050 033 001 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You know...looking at the obs, it almost looks like we might see a center reformation (in the middle of RI...how weird!). The center's southern side is weaker on this pass than the last, and it looks like the winds are setting up for a new one to form to the North of the current one. I think it'll happen fast, too. That convective burst to the north is shotguning around, and I think that is the catalyst.

And the fact that the warmest temps were found to the north of the center (20 miles north) might support this.