EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

0Z GFS still not to high on intensity....closes it off though but keeps it weak 1012MB....lol....its already 1007mb according to best track...ha


moves it into the GA/FL line...

[lilybeth]

Glad to hear the cruise ship is safe...and wow these are some incredible images.

['CaneFreak]

It's mostly because the GFS is a low resolution model. They have been working hard to get it to a higher and higher resolution model but that costs $, something we don't have much of right now. Track and low intensity is probably correct though. Don't see this thing getting much above a 50 or 60 knot TS.

0Z GFS still not to high on intensity....closes it off though but keeps it weak 1012MB....lol....its already 1007mb according to best track...ha


moves it into the GA/FL line...

[northjaxpro]

0Z EURO 72 hour run shows potential Beryl making landfall near or just to the south of Jacksonville.

[Kingarabian]

Extremely tiny eye.

Convection has also recently begin firing up again near the center. He's not going to spare Mexico.

[Kingarabian]

Down to 95Kts. 110Mph.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250839
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE EYE OF BUD IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. BUD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AIRMASS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. BUD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR
SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/07...AS BUD IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS BUD SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AFTER THAT TIME THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD...HOWEVER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF BUD WILL DECOUPLE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND BACK OFFSHORE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. AT 48 THROUGH 72 HOURS...A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-EMERGES
OVER THE WATER.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.6N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.6N 105.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 19.7N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0600Z 19.8N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[ronjon]

Pretty consistent euro runs the last couple of days. Looks like St Augustine to perhaps Daytona Bch landfall as a TS. 00z CMC pretty similar. The Euro doesn't eject this low out to the NE quite as fast as yesterdays run as it keeps low pressure over N FL through Tuesday night. This situation would actually be great for north and central FL as we are suffering through a severe drought now. Silver Springs in Ocala is flowing at a period of record low now.

[NDG]

I doubt Bud will be a hurricane by the time it reaches the coast, dry air and cooler waters are taking its toll.

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if the 00z CMC went further out that it would have done another loops. lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...HURRICANE BUD EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 105.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TODAY...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO
AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[northjaxpro]

I doubt Bud will be a hurricane by the time it reaches the coast, dry air and cooler waters are taking its toll.

Yeah, looking at satellite imagery Bud is weakening at a steady rate now.

[lebron23]

If your in the path of this disturbance/ storm stay tuned. Seems like a rain maker.

[hurricanefloyd5]

when will recon fly into 94L to get better model runs and so the models can get a better handle on this system

[Yellow Evan]

95 kt is generous IMO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Recon on it's way.

[mf_dolphin]

Nothing on the Recon Plan of the Day for today or tomorrow for 94L

[zeehag]

please pray or whatever for weakening before it hits north banderas bay--am in marina la cruz and this sucks.....

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 251451
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THIS MORNING. BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER
CORE OF THE CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BASICALLY
BECOME AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF CONVECTION. AN EARLIER AMSU-B
MICROWAVE PASS WAS CERTAINLY TIMELY IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND REVEALING AN APPARENT TILT OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE SHIPS AND THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR
PRODUCT BOTH INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOW SITUATED TO
THE SOUTH. BASED ON THESE CHANGES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 85 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST EITHER AT OR JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTERWARD...RAPID DECAY IS EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO DECOUPLES THE THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. BUD IS THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 96 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL
AND THE LGEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06. BUD REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE U.S. WEST COAST TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS
IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...OR ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE COAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY...
WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CONTINUES WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE...AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN SHOWING A SHALLOW CIRCULATION DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 18.4N 105.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 19.9N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 27/0000Z 20.0N 105.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 27/1200Z 19.8N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 19.4N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 251451
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...BUD WEAKENS SOME...STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 105.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE COAST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUD IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AT OR NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is a littler stronger and farther south SW by about 100 miles.

6z


12z