ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

I know mods don't want to here this, but this is the war of all model wars. GFS vs. EURO.

[Jevo]

12z Euro +72 CONUS view

[TwisterFanatic]

12zGFDL +84hrs

[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Tropical%20Models%202012/12zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSL084.gif[/img ]

Wasn't the GFDL into Florida last night?

[bamajammer4eva]

Euro is just one model. GFS has the backing of the Bams, HWRF, GFDL which say something similar

[wx247]

So between the EURO and the GFS, remind me again... doesn't one of them typically overdo the strength of ridges and one traditionally underdoes the strength?

[Jevo]

12z Euro +96 CONUS

[pgoss11]

I guess the Euro is seeing a weakness in the Atlantic Ridge??

[deltadog03]

Euro is just one model. GFS has the backing of the Bams, HWRF, GFDL which say something similar

Your right, the euro is 1 model...BUT those others run OFF OF the GFS.

[cheezyWXguy]

Right outlier interesting.,,we know one this the medium range track is up in the air right now as per NHC

hard to believe were calling that an 'outlier.' I mean, I guess it is one, since the rest of guidance is so tightly clustered, but in a typical situation where guidance is more evenly spread 3 days out, the gap between the euro and the rest doesn't strike me as overwhelming. The difference between SE/South central LA and Mobile is what, 150 miles?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFDL last night had Pensacola, I remember because I posted the frame.

[Ntxw]

Don't forget the Ukmet and canadian are on the Euro camp right now. I wouldn't call it outright outlier.

[Rgv20]

12zGFDL +84hrs

[img]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h62/cantu5977/Tropical%20Models%202012/12zgfdl500mbHGHTPMSL084.gif[/img ]

Wasn't the GFDL into Florida last night?

Yes! lol 0z had a Florida Panhandle hit....not surprise by the shift on the track as it usually follows the Operational GFS.

[LSU2001]

I know that the Euro has a ton of respectability from past years but so far this year the GFS has been king. I only know that with the GFS showing a nightmare for me, I finished up my preps this morning and I am fully fueled, provisioned and as ready as I can be should it verify.
Tim

[Stormlover2012]

well I think the only reason he is calling it that because gfs was right with debby the whole time and the euro had it towards texas, I don't know what to do think.


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
Now that this missed the fork its apparent that the westward track is the way to go. So a matter of pick your poison. Remember in close


This is not a official forecast, now big joe is on the westward track

[TwisterFanatic]

Thing is, it's not a HUGE difference in distance. And I wouldn't trust the CMC as far as I could throw it. It's been terrible with Isaac since he formed.

[Ivanhater]

Most important image...Euro actually heads north and east at landfall

[pgoss11]

Most important image...Euro actually heads north and east at landfall

Picked up by a trough?

[Dean4Storms]

Really the GFS and Euro are not that far apart at 72 hours, the difference lies with the depth of the trough across the northern Conus where the GFS has it missing the connection and the Euro doesn't.

[perk]

Euro is just one model. GFS has the backing of the Bams, HWRF, GFDL which say something similar

Your right, the euro is 1 model...BUT those others run OFF OF the GFS.

But is that a reason to dismiss them.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Why is there less rain now SE of miami, can't see anything in the long range?