ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[mcheer23]

NHC goes with a hurricane at day 5

[Evil Jeremy]

TS Watch for Lesser Antilles

[floridasun78]

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

[SFLcane]

Another view of the 18z plots for now TD5

[IreneSurvivor47]

Love to be schooled by wxman! Central America track as Hurricane Ernesto.

[cycloneye]

[floridasun78]

nhc do see as hurr undrer cuba

[gatorcane]

Pretty decent north shift in the 18Z package?

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

[floridasun78]

but as west bound hurr into were wx say it going too central america

[Dave]

5:00 PM AST Wed Aug 1
Location: 12.2°N 49.0°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it will be interesting to see what happens when TD#5 gets near Jamaica. As pointed out, there is a hint of a trough over the Eastern US by early next week which may turn the tropical cyclone north once it passes 70 degrees Longitude. It is shaping up to be an interesting next 7 days for sure.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION
HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS
ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER
ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO
GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM
DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[RL3AO]

PLEASE READ

We now have a tropical depression with watches issued for parts of the islands and the NHC is forecasting a hurricane in the Caribbean.

This thread will start to get very active. Starting now the staff will be getting much more strict on a few things.

Among these will be use of the disclaimer for any personal forecasts.

Also, we will be deleting any of these short one liner posts that attribute nothing to the discussion. People will be coming here to ask questions and discuss the system. We don't want the thread clogged up with hundreds of short and effectively useless posts. Feel free to use the chat room if you want to chat. You can access it at the top of the website.

Thank you
- Storm2k Staff.

[southerngale]

For chat style conversation, don't forget to visit the Storm2k chatroom. People are discussing Tropical Depression Five right now. Check it out!

[Dave]

NOUS42 KNHC 011453
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-075

1. SUSPECT AREA.....APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 02/1530Z
D. 12.4N 54.4W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-

A. 03/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 03/0400Z
D. 13.0N 57.5W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXED.


RECON decoding tutorial - viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

[Dave]

Please use this thread for all questions, comments, work hours, etc., so we can keep the Recon thread clear for HDOBS, VDM's, Dropsoundes, etc only. Thanks!

RECON Tutorial

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

[Kingarabian]

Either way, the Euro has TD-Five re-birthing once it degenerates and then takes it into Texas. Will see what happens.

[cycloneye]

Do you know if the first mission will depart from ST Croix or Barbados as they have departed from that second island before?

[IreneSurvivor47]

In ten days this may be on Texas' coast. How far north could this thing go and the odds of it?

[Dave]

Do you know if the first mission will depart from ST Croix or Barbados as they have departed from that second island before?

St Croix is more prepared for continuous flights than Barbadoes is and would be closer to the system than Keesler AFB in MS.