ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[nashrobertsx]

Post some sat pixs every so often guys. Thx!

[Nimbus]

There is an ULL drifting WSW near the Yucatan that will provide one outflow channel and the mid atlantic TUT has been drifting west so that will set Isaac up under an almost ideal high pressure dome for development. Meanwhile there is a weakness hanging back over the Texas panhandle but the anticyclone Isaac is building over himself looks like it is pushing NW a little more than the models forecast. That was probably a wise move by the New Orleans mayor to sound the alarm now.

Hurricanes sometimes do the unpredictable especially if they stall in a weak steering environment so we should keep watching for those 5 percent scenario's like Charley just in case.

[tolakram]

Post some sat pixs every so often guys. Thx!

Working on it.

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

latest

[bella_may]

Has anybody else realized that this storm is likely to make landfall the same day as Katrina did in 05? Wow i just realized that

[KimmieLa]

NOLA Mayor is speaking, asking for us all to prepare. Feeling the anxiety. Out of caution, they are saying that the superdome and the airport will not be shelter of last resort, that they should evacuate if told to evacuate. They will keep in touch with the citizens. They are preparing for the worst. They are beginning to move inmates, and depending on intensity, more people may be moved. Pump operators are focused and prepared. The levees are the best they have been in years. Watching for the triggers to shut the gates if needed. Catch basins are being cleared at this time. Hospitals are preparing now. Ready to move debris after the storm. Asking people to heed any warnings and stay safe. That is basically what was said.

[tolakram]

Latest saved Key West radar



40 frame loop: http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/9868 ... plarge.gif

[imetrice]

Press conference reminded me of the initial Nagin Katrina conference, the one before the NHC called him and said, "are you kidding me?"

I agree, I felt kind of helpless listening to it. I wonder if the track and intensity uncertainty is playing a part in their decision. I can't imagine having to make a major decision based on "could be's", but I would rather err on the side of caution. (Especially considering the history, and NO's complicated evac scenarios). Time is their friend right now, and there isn't much of it.

[6SpeedTA95]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Water vapor images and visible sat show a significant improvement in the storms organization from this morning. Lot's of convection and it appears to be continuously organizing. Outflow is also much improved.
Conditions continue to favor development and as a result we may see a hurricane within the next 12 or 15 hours.

[HarryPotter]

This really shows the outflow establishing....

['CaneFreak]

Once this thing gets away from the influence of that upper trough that is currently depositing mid level dry air on the south side of Isaac, look out...in fact, tonight I think we could see this thing become a minimal hurricane...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Still no convection on it's SE side though.

[Senobia]

I've been posting info in the preps thread so you might wanna check over there for links, too.

[tailgater]

NOLA Mayor is speaking live. will update

Asking residents to prepare, hard to tell where it will go.
12-16 inches of rain
Preparing to shelter in place

I guess with all the uncertainty on the track, it's too soon to call for an evacuation. At what point, however, would it be to late to do so? I think it is wise to suggest that people prepare, but since this will no doubt be a rain event regardless of the actual land fall point, it may be a good idea to start evacuating those who would not be able to do so on a moments notice.


Disclaimer: I am only an amateur hurricane fanatic. Please refer to the NHC or other official weather source for accurate forecasts.

Which direction should they go, East to fla see EURO, west to Texas see GFS, north could be a major rain event but probably the best option, south is no good unless you are adventurous.
Hopefully only the low lying areas will need to be vacated.

[cheezyWXguy]

Still no convection on it's SE side though.

thats because the inflow channel is still over cuba. This probably wont go away until Isaac has cleared cuba entirely.

[micktooth]

Carl Arrodando local met is discussing GFS vs EURO solutions. Still a lot of uncertainties as far as NOLA is concerned. LA Governor's press conference shortly.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well it has been 2498 days since the last landfalling hurricane in Florida (Wilma) and based on the current trend I think we are going to keep that record intact (for at least a another day or so pending location of the GOM landfall). Center looks like it is going to just miss Key West to the south and at any rate it hasn't been classified as a cane yet anyway. Once again Florida appears no hurricane streak seems to remain intact. It amazes me that it has been 7 years since a cane has hit Florida. Our luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

With all of that being said, we are sending good vibes and prayers to everyone on the Gulf Coast. Isaac could be a totally different animal when it gets to you so please take precautions and be prepared.

SFT

What about Key West? Not mainland Florida, but Florida.

Please read what I said carefully... Center appears it's going to miss Key West to the south and it is not classified as a hurricane at this point. Florida has gone 2498 days without a DIRECT HIT FROM A HURRICANE...

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

the convection still is not concentrating near the center. wont strengthen like that.

[Sanibel]

There's a hollow center circle forming on radar.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Still no convection on it's SE side though.

thats because the inflow channel is still over cuba. This probably wont go away until Isaac has cleared cuba entirely.

So I'm guessing SE florida is in the clear?

[rainstorm]

yea, its still a disorganized mess.