Leslie looks amazing today, one of the best looking TS's of the year. It has that perfect appearance whether or not the LLC is at the center. I was thinking how great and fast its intensifying and then I read the NHC discussion and they downplay it. Even the mention of the intensity being backed off! Now only a CAT1?!? I was just thinking this was going to explode into a CAT3-4! I don't remember a discussion talking about a "upper level high" (don't really know how that plays into things) but with them mentioning this, it probably will end up being 0 shear instead...its the opposite usually in the beginning of forecasts for a early period of TCs (unexpected both ways like Issac having shear and Kirk having no shear). As I said in the Kirk topic, if this doesn't become a major...well what will?
Zanthe wrote:Guys, if you think this is the first good looking system, or first system that's gone through RI...*cough* Gordon *cough* Kirk *Cough*
I think they mean best looking TS of the season.
cycloneye wrote:No change on intensity and center is at 17.1N.
00z Best Track
AL, 12, 2012090100, , BEST, 0, 171N, 520W, 55, 999, TS
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
You never know, it might be a hurricane right now but until that eye pops out, no dice.
wxman57 wrote:Yeah, looks good if the center was in the middle of the deep convection, but it isn't. I believe it's on the northern edge of that convection. Still fighting NE shear. Not a hurricane.
Edit:
Ah, yes - see the microwave image above this post. Satellite imagery can be QUITE deceiving.
It doesn't look like its fighting anything. It doesn't need 0 knots of wind shear to organize quickly. That microwave image shows an eye forming, that white grid line is covering it up making it difficult to see.