ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Give it a few hrs. and you're gonna see an eyewall. It's about to bomb out. This reminds me of Charley.

What evidence do you have to support your prediction?

[stormhunter7]

I don't think that's the center you guys are seeing drift west. The center is east of there

its not a good sign when no one can figure out where the center is.

we know exactly where the center is... recon just passed through it

basically per Kermit its near Time: 22:20:30Z Coordinates: 23.95N 82.4667W... they dropped two dropsondes... one on east side and other on west side of coc. Pressure around 992mb

[cpdaman]

Aric or wxman57 or anyone lol are mid level temps in the se gulf / cent. Gulf still modeled to be rather warm (less instability) this is imo a reason for reserv'd intensity forecasts

[mahi1720]

Look at that CDO in the last 2 hrs. There's a consolidated low under it, relatively low shear,and 90dg. water. It's cranking.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Isaac's about to explode.

What evidence do you have to support your prediction?

[N2FSU]

Question for someone smarter than me: would a slower motion make it more or less likely that it makes the connection with the trough which is moving towards the southeast? I can't figure out if the GFS is sticking to a further west solution because Isaac gets to the coast too fast before the trough gets very far east, or does the trough simply not dig far enough south to catch it? If it's a matter of the first, then I would think it slowing and waiting on the trough, so to speak, would make it more likely to follow more of the Euro, CMC, NAM solutions.

[bella_may]

Question for someone smarter than me: would a slower motion make it more or less likely that it makes the connection with the trough which is moving towards the southeast? I can't figure out if the GFS is sticking to a further west solution because Isaac gets to the coast too fast before the trough gets very far east, or does the trough simply not dig far enough south to catch it? If it's a matter of the first, then I would think it slowing and waiting on the trough, so to speak, would make it more likely to follow more of the Euro, CMC, NAM solutions.

I would say more likely because the slower it moves the faster the trough can send it north/NE. I'm not a professional though.

[stormhunter7]

Mid level center and surface center appear to be off by a little. I'm thinking this slower motion is the mid-upper center is trying to pull the surface center more to the north, while moving nw

[Aric Dunn]

Question for someone smarter than me: would a slower motion make it more or less likely that it makes the connection with the trough which is moving towards the southeast? I can't figure out if the GFS is sticking to a further west solution because Isaac gets to the coast too fast before the trough gets very far east, or does the trough simply not dig far enough south to catch it? If it's a matter of the first, then I would think it slowing and waiting on the trough, so to speak, would make it more likely to follow more of the Euro, CMC, NAM solutions.

well based on the fact the gfs is quite a bit faster than the euro i would say thats the case atm but its hard to tell. also the euro has a more pronounced 500mb vorticity and this feels the weakness more. so we will just have to wait and see... this stalling is not making it easy to make a reliable forecast. no models foretasted this to happen

[Senobia]

Updated 'action zones', from TWC:

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I've been following this site since the Coast Guard stationed me down here in texas last year. It really is great information. I was trying to google some stuff I was reading on the discussion and I came across this. Hurricane isaac in 1900. I know Isaac is not forcasted to come to texas. Would be interesting if two Isaacs came close to the same landfall, both with the same forcasted category 4's. Sorry this isn't exactly related. Best wishes to anyone involved.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1900_ ... _track.png

Well technically the 1900 storm wasn't "Hurricane Isaac". Storms weren't named back then. It has been since nicknamed Isaac's storm after meteorologist Isaac Cline. But facts aside, I do see your point.

This was posted way back towards the beginning of this thread. It is a documentary about Isaac's storm, or the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. I found it interesting and informative. Glad we have come so far since then.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uz2GvDJHMg

[rainstorm]

Question for someone smarter than me: would a slower motion make it more or less likely that it makes the connection with the trough which is moving towards the southeast? I can't figure out if the GFS is sticking to a further west solution because Isaac gets to the coast too fast before the trough gets very far east, or does the trough simply not dig far enough south to catch it? If it's a matter of the first, then I would think it slowing and waiting on the trough, so to speak, would make it more likely to follow more of the Euro, CMC, NAM solutions.

I would say more likely because the slower it moves the faster the trough can send it north/NE. I'm not a professional though.

i think one important thing is if there is anything for the trough to grab. if isaac remains shallow and disjointed it will move mostly west.

[Aric Dunn]

very well could be that the upper/mid level low near the Yucatan is casue some mid level shear that is pushing the mid level vort to the ne which would cause the low level center to reform with it. I say that because there is some strong mid level rotation seen on radar withing the higher reflectivity.

[Sanibel]

The CDO rotation has improved on radar.

[mahi1720]

Give it a few hrs. and you're gonna see an eyewall. It's about to bomb out. This reminds me of Charley.

What evidence do you have to support your prediction?

I can't state with 100% assurance but I do know we are in the peak of hurricane season, the water is hot and the Gulf of Mexico has had some hurricanes in the past. The conditions are pretty good. What evidence do you have that its not going to bomb?

[iorange55]

This was posted way back towards the beginning of this thread. It is a documentary about Isaac's storm, or the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. I found it interesting and informative. Glad we have come so far since then.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uz2GvDJHMg

Thanks for posting that; it gives me something to watch tonight while I eat my frozen yogurt.

Hope everyone stays safe! I'll be watching...

[ozonepete]

Two views, the first one from 11:15 this morning and the second one from 6:15PM a little while ago.

[stormhunter7]

very well could be that the upper/mid level low near the Yucatan is casue some mid level shear that is pushing the mid level vort to the ne which would cause the low level center to reform with it. I say that because there is some strong mid level rotation seen on radar withing the higher reflectivity.

agree, 100% Mid level rotation is clearly seen on key west doppler... and its not moving that much, which i think is causing the huge blowup of convection. Mid level to me is about 20 miles wsw of the dry tortugas?

[Nimbus]

The Texas pro mets haven't been posting for a while, wonder what they are thinking about this stall?

[Aric Dunn]

very well could be that the upper/mid level low near the Yucatan is casue some mid level shear that is pushing the mid level vort to the ne which would cause the low level center to reform with it. I say that because there is some strong mid level rotation seen on radar withing the higher reflectivity.

agree, 100% Mid level rotation is clearly seen on key west doppler... and its not moving that much, which i think is causing the huge blowup of convection. Mid level to me is about 20 miles wsw of the dry tortugas?

yeah that scenario would cause some issues in the models. if the mid level keeps getting blown off and the center keeps reforming back under it that would likely push the models north ...