ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stephanie]

It is really raining here in Boynton Beach. It really hasn't stopped for the last couple of hours. Not a lot of wind but it is gusty at times. This one has lasted longer than Wilma (witch took our screen enclosure and put it in the pool). I think it must be intesifying I know nothing so as always get your information from the professionals not from me. I am not forecasting just observing.

We appreciate everyone's observations.

[HurrMark]

OK, I give up...where is this dry air everyone is mentioning? I can't seem to find it on any map.

[KWT]

As you can see on that above IR its southern side still isn't that far away from Cuba, certainly close enough that the inflow will be disrupted a touch from it, especially if there is some weak/moderate mid level shear present which appears to be the case.

[pgoss11]

If that is true..that is HUGE for model watchers

[Emmett_Brown]

I don't like to go by just radar because I know its beam is hitting at mid levels but this sure looks to be moving more NNW!

I was noticing a more northerly jog on radar as well. Perhaps its the center migrating toward the convection? Pretty interesting!

[tolakram]

In 2005 there was a piece of the loop current that broke off and created a large zone of hot water. This year the heat content in the gulf is much lower.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not from where it started, but Hurricane Danny (1985) track anyone?



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[HurrMark]

As you can see on that above IR its southern side still isn't that far away from Cuba, certainly close enough that the inflow will be disrupted a touch from it, especially if there is some weak/moderate mid level shear present which appears to be the case.

Perhaps a touch, but I can hardly imagine it be an impediment from at least slow intensification.

[Sanibel]

I think we've been watching the slow-motion development of a mean Dvorak.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Ivanhater, do you see anything at this point that could make Isaac unexpectedly go on a much more northern path? i.e. any possibility of the ridge breaking down, or sign that the trough will strengthen or amplify? Or is it going to really just head wnw to nw generally now...cuz the synoptic setup won't really allow it to go any other way. I want to know that we are in the clear here in Tampa Bay from any good morning surprises!

[tailgater]

Outflow starting to improve on the southside, probably that hot tower right Ccane or shear reducing?

[cpdaman]

Not sure why more people besides mark and wxman57 haven't mention'd anomalously warm mid level temps as culprit for putting lid on model'd intensity

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Isaac needs tonight to rid itself of all the dry air that was en-trained into its circulation from Cuba. After that time, it's game on (unfortunately for residents along the Central and Western Gulf Coast).

[Zeno8]

OK, I give up...where is this dry air everyone is mentioning? I can't seem to find it on any map.

ULL over Yucatan

[PTPatrick]

Ivan, if that center relocation happens on north side of guidance, I'm thinking that it will shift the models slightly right. As a further north position in the mid term could allow it to feel more of the weakness.




Disclaimer: I'm a PT not a meteorologist. Don't plan your get away based off my brainfarts

[KWT]

tolakram, it is interesting but its obviously worth while noting that even the lowest heat content in the Gulf is still more than enough to support a cat-3 if background conditions are good enough, which judging by the models strengthening the system, I'd say they probably will be in 12-24hrs time.

[PerdidoGirl]

Do you think Pensacola is still in a precarious position?? I'm about prepped out but still much to do.

[Bocadude85]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
949 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PEMBROKE PINES...MIRAMAR...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HIALEAH...

* UNTIL 1015 PM EDT

* AT 947 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OPA-LOCKA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH. %%

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MIAMI LAKES...
MIAMI GARDENS...
MIRAMAR...
INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...
WESTON...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR...AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR WALLS AND WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

TAKE COVER NOW IN A STURDY REINFORCED BUILDING. TORNADOES ARE
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HARD TO SEE. IF YOU
WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A
SAFE PLACE! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.
LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR REINFORCED SHELTER. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

&&

[jes]

So Michael, where would that take the landfall if the center moves North?

[BenD]

Do you think Pensacola is still in a precarious position?? I'm about prepped out but still much to do.

Pensacola is still possible. And being on the "bad side" of the storm as I understand it, seems that you should continue preparing as much as possible.

Its much better to be prepared then not..