ATL: ISAAC - Models

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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5561 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:37 pm

Thanks Don, was just about to ask the same thing.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5562 Postby gboudx » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:39 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
gboudx wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?


I use this website. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/


Which is the link to the animation. I'm totally lost on that website. Don't know what to click.


On left, click: 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Domain dropdown list: SE/SC/whatever
Date dropdown list: Looks like it will forecast out 7 hours so you can leave the current date/time.

This is what I use, HTH.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5563 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:44 pm

Hey porta. Watching them off and on but more dealing with the present. People will Argue models and I didn't memorize all the different runs along the way. But it looks like another in a series of recent wins for the gfs. Its not been without flaws but we are all going to be taking it a lot more seriously after this season. A quick update from nola is that its been a semi non event thus far. Because of the pacific-like dry northside didn't have any rain at all, we didn't get the jumpstart 4 to 5 inches overnight and this morning. Its gusty and raining off and on now but things should get going this evening (noting the band getting close for the next hour or so). Most people in town are taking a cautious yet partying approach, and God knows we earned that right after katrina and what could have gone down with Gustav. I am interested to see what we end up with since we will be on the near east side of the stall/crawl indicated by several models. Isaac is going down in history as a very memorable tropical storm. The forward speed, the structure, the islands, se Fla, and whatever else is yet to be written. I'm hunkering down with some tasty booze and am prepared to ride the next 30-48 hrs. Good luck to everyone, and I miss you jmmk. This post is the opinion and observation of this poster only. Peace.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5564 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:44 pm

12Z NOGAPS no longer shoots this up but actually gets it pretty far west before doing so...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5565 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:47 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z NOGAPS no longer shoots this up but actually gets it pretty far west before doing so...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


Looks like it rides the coast to the tx/la border
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5566 Postby Red Seal » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:52 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z NOGAPS no longer shoots this up but actually gets it pretty far west before doing so...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


The door is shut...must go around
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5567 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:53 pm

18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5568 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:03 pm

ROCK wrote:18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....


Trough already is leaving the east coast on the model. Likely miss it, will depend on strength of midwest ridge. NAM is very robust with it even pushing slightly SW. Not sure this will happen but not impossible.
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#5569 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:05 pm

Hmmm... One by one, the late models seal the gate ahead of Isaac.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5570 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:08 pm

Been watching the evolution of the trough dropping out of the great lakes region. Its definitely moving more east than digging south. Shouldnt have much of any impact on Isaac. Looks the future path will all depend on the ridge now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5571 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:
ROCK wrote:18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....


Trough already is leaving the east coast on the model. Likely miss it, will depend on strength of midwest ridge. NAM is very robust with it even pushing slightly SW. Not sure this will happen but not impossible.



yep NT...I see it...more offshore...and drifting west...its a miss on the short wave now lets see it the ridge can move it
Last edited by ROCK on Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5572 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:10 pm

Aaaaandd... the NAM pushes Isaac back out into the Gulf at 21 hours with a WSW motion. Now *that's* new.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5573 Postby Red Seal » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:10 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Been watching the evolution of the trough dropping out of the great lakes region. Its definitely moving more east than digging south. Shouldnt have much of any impact on Isaac. Looks the future path will all depend on the ridge now.


Yes, see variables here:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5574 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
ROCK wrote:18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....


Trough already is leaving the east coast on the model. Likely miss it, will depend on strength of midwest ridge. NAM is very robust with it even pushing slightly SW. Not sure this will happen but not impossible.


The HRRR model also pushes Isaac southwest. So it has support.
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#5575 Postby Karen124 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:11 pm

This is almost getting comical
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5576 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:12 pm

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5577 Postby iorange55 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:12 pm

Wow, if the NAM is correct; that is going to be a ton of rainfall for the Louisiana coastline.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5578 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:13 pm

Steve wrote:Hey porta. Watching them off and on but more dealing with the present. People will Argue models and I didn't memorize all the different runs along the way. But it looks like another in a series of recent wins for the gfs. Its not been without flaws but we are all going to be taking it a lot more seriously after this season. A quick update from nola is that its been a semi non event thus far. Because of the pacific-like dry northside didn't have any rain at all, we didn't get the jumpstart 4 to 5 inches overnight and this morning. Its gusty and raining off and on now but things should get going this evening (noting the band getting close for the next hour or so). Most people in town are taking a cautious yet partying approach, and God knows we earned that right after katrina and what could have gone down with Gustav. I am interested to see what we end up with since we will be on the near east side of the stall/crawl indicated by several models. Isaac is going down in history as a very memorable tropical storm. The forward speed, the structure, the islands, se Fla, and whatever else is yet to be written. I'm hunkering down with some tasty booze and am prepared to ride the next 30-48 hrs. Good luck to everyone, and I miss you jmmk. This post is the opinion and observation of this poster only. Peace.


Agreed on the GFS. I used to bow before King Euro (not the level ROCK does! ... LOL) but the GFS has highly impressed me this season. We appreciate the report and, you sir, be safe riding out the storm. Please continue to keep us posted.
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#5579 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:14 pm

Starting to look like I am gonna get pounded by rain on Friday, good. We need it bad.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5580 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:14 pm

30hr is really southwest.....
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