ATL: ISAAC - Models

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Don, was just about to ask the same thing.

[gboudx]

Can someone provide a link to the HRRR model?

I use this website. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/

Which is the link to the animation. I'm totally lost on that website. Don't know what to click.

On left, click: 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Domain dropdown list: SE/SC/whatever
Date dropdown list: Looks like it will forecast out 7 hours so you can leave the current date/time.

This is what I use, HTH.

[Steve]

Hey porta. Watching them off and on but more dealing with the present. People will Argue models and I didn't memorize all the different runs along the way. But it looks like another in a series of recent wins for the gfs. Its not been without flaws but we are all going to be taking it a lot more seriously after this season. A quick update from nola is that its been a semi non event thus far. Because of the pacific-like dry northside didn't have any rain at all, we didn't get the jumpstart 4 to 5 inches overnight and this morning. Its gusty and raining off and on now but things should get going this evening (noting the band getting close for the next hour or so). Most people in town are taking a cautious yet partying approach, and God knows we earned that right after katrina and what could have gone down with Gustav. I am interested to see what we end up with since we will be on the near east side of the stall/crawl indicated by several models. Isaac is going down in history as a very memorable tropical storm. The forward speed, the structure, the islands, se Fla, and whatever else is yet to be written. I'm hunkering down with some tasty booze and am prepared to ride the next 30-48 hrs. Good luck to everyone, and I miss you jmmk. This post is the opinion and observation of this poster only. Peace.

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS no longer shoots this up but actually gets it pretty far west before doing so...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[wxwatcher1999]

12Z NOGAPS no longer shoots this up but actually gets it pretty far west before doing so...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Looks like it rides the coast to the tx/la border

[Red Seal]

12Z NOGAPS no longer shoots this up but actually gets it pretty far west before doing so...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

The door is shut...must go around

[ROCK]

18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Ntxw]

18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....

Trough already is leaving the east coast on the model. Likely miss it, will depend on strength of midwest ridge. NAM is very robust with it even pushing slightly SW. Not sure this will happen but not impossible.

[Texashawk]

Hmmm... One by one, the late models seal the gate ahead of Isaac.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Been watching the evolution of the trough dropping out of the great lakes region. Its definitely moving more east than digging south. Shouldnt have much of any impact on Isaac. Looks the future path will all depend on the ridge now.

[ROCK]

18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....

Trough already is leaving the east coast on the model. Likely miss it, will depend on strength of midwest ridge. NAM is very robust with it even pushing slightly SW. Not sure this will happen but not impossible.

yep NT...I see it...more offshore...and drifting west...its a miss on the short wave now lets see it the ridge can move it

[Texashawk]

Aaaaandd... the NAM pushes Isaac back out into the Gulf at 21 hours with a WSW motion. Now *that's* new.

[Red Seal]

Been watching the evolution of the trough dropping out of the great lakes region. Its definitely moving more east than digging south. Shouldnt have much of any impact on Isaac. Looks the future path will all depend on the ridge now.

Yes, see variables here:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/

[HouTXmetro]

18Z NAM is rolling....lets see if it holds serve....

Trough already is leaving the east coast on the model. Likely miss it, will depend on strength of midwest ridge. NAM is very robust with it even pushing slightly SW. Not sure this will happen but not impossible.

The HRRR model also pushes Isaac southwest. So it has support.

[Karen124]

This is almost getting comical

[ROCK]

27hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[iorange55]

Wow, if the NAM is correct; that is going to be a ton of rainfall for the Louisiana coastline.

[Portastorm]

Hey porta. Watching them off and on but more dealing with the present. People will Argue models and I didn't memorize all the different runs along the way. But it looks like another in a series of recent wins for the gfs. Its not been without flaws but we are all going to be taking it a lot more seriously after this season. A quick update from nola is that its been a semi non event thus far. Because of the pacific-like dry northside didn't have any rain at all, we didn't get the jumpstart 4 to 5 inches overnight and this morning. Its gusty and raining off and on now but things should get going this evening (noting the band getting close for the next hour or so). Most people in town are taking a cautious yet partying approach, and God knows we earned that right after katrina and what could have gone down with Gustav. I am interested to see what we end up with since we will be on the near east side of the stall/crawl indicated by several models. Isaac is going down in history as a very memorable tropical storm. The forward speed, the structure, the islands, se Fla, and whatever else is yet to be written. I'm hunkering down with some tasty booze and am prepared to ride the next 30-48 hrs. Good luck to everyone, and I miss you jmmk. This post is the opinion and observation of this poster only. Peace.

Agreed on the GFS. I used to bow before King Euro (not the level ROCK does! ... LOL) but the GFS has highly impressed me this season. We appreciate the report and, you sir, be safe riding out the storm. Please continue to keep us posted.

[TwisterFanatic]

Starting to look like I am gonna get pounded by rain on Friday, good. We need it bad.

[ROCK]

30hr is really southwest.....