ATL: ISAAC - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Sabanic
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 64
- Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 7:01 am
- Location: Mobile, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Texas bound!!!
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
"I can do all things through Christ which strengtheneth me" - Philippians 4:13
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Portastorm wrote:Steve wrote:Hey porta. Watching them off and on but more dealing with the present. People will Argue models and I didn't memorize all the different runs along the way. But it looks like another in a series of recent wins for the gfs. Its not been without flaws but we are all going to be taking it a lot more seriously after this season. A quick update from nola is that its been a semi non event thus far. Because of the pacific-like dry northside didn't have any rain at all, we didn't get the jumpstart 4 to 5 inches overnight and this morning. Its gusty and raining off and on now but things should get going this evening (noting the band getting close for the next hour or so). Most people in town are taking a cautious yet partying approach, and God knows we earned that right after katrina and what could have gone down with Gustav. I am interested to see what we end up with since we will be on the near east side of the stall/crawl indicated by several models. Isaac is going down in history as a very memorable tropical storm. The forward speed, the structure, the islands, se Fla, and whatever else is yet to be written. I'm hunkering down with some tasty booze and am prepared to ride the next 30-48 hrs. Good luck to everyone, and I miss you jmmk. This post is the opinion and observation of this poster only. Peace.
Agreed on the GFS. I used to bow before King Euro (not the level ROCK does! ... LOL) but the GFS has highly impressed me this season. We appreciate the report and, you sir, be safe riding out the storm. Please continue to keep us posted.
yeah Steve be safe bro...glad to see you around here more....missed your insights on teleconnections. over the last 9 yrs I have been here you have taught me a lot....
ROCK
0 likes
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
0 likes
- Texashawk
- Category 2
- Posts: 551
- Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:50 am
- Location: Missouri City, TX (Houston)
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
So... to summarize the latest model runs, according to the HWRF, the NAM, and another operational model I forget (the HWRR?):
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Last edited by Texashawk on Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
I wouldn't give the GFS all the credit yet . Remember Euro sniffed this solution out first 7+ days several times while GFS was coming up the spine of Florida. GFS corrected well though while Euro went the wrong way to come back. Both showed different solutions but the paralleling LA coast was the one common theme both models had when they did.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
36hr...get close to the border....still offshore...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Ntxw wrote:I wouldn't give the GFS all the credit yet . Remember Euro sniffed this solution out first 7+ days several times while GFS was coming up the spine of Florida. GFS corrected well though while Euro went the wrong way to come back. Both showed different solutions but the paralleling LA coast was the one common theme both models had when they did.
yeah at one time they did show this...but I still hug the EURO more so the GFS...it seems to set the trends...
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Yesterday, poor Rock said "no more model watching"....LOL, poor fella.
Radar.
Radar.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2183
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
- Location: Gonzales, LA
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
I better start getting my boat ready should have gassed that up instead of generators and vehicles lol
0 likes
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
finally its at the border....that took a whole 45 hours.....lol
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5248
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Geez another run of the NAM that absolutely just pounds my area with 10"-15"+ of rain .
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2718
- Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
- Location: Beaumont, TX
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Who else is shocked that they didn't move the cone further West and slow it down even more.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
Blinhart wrote:Who else is shocked that they didn't move the cone further West and slow it down even more.
ME!!! I was even expected atleast the "watches" to be extended after watching all the model data today.... Wow. We'll see tough....
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 264
- Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am
maybe they are waiting to see another run from the GFS before they make any track adjustments
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5677
- Age: 58
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
I think the NHC is really being careful with the one. With the disagreement with the models, I think they want to be as prudent as possible before going the next step. At least that is what I am thinking and I am just a weather watcher.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models
thanks Rock. I don't really mess with much interaction on the web but with a real threat, I wanted to contribute. Nice band a bit ago but video upload is a crawl. Ill get that up later. Speaking of models, it looks like many models show Isaac will go much farther west than I thought. And speaking of teleconnections, check out the track of Tembin which offers real life support for a loop. If it verifies for Isaac, which it likely won't, tha would be insane beyond anything I've ever seen.
Last edited by Steve on Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
- Nikki
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 291
- Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 3:38 pm
- Location: Santa Fe, TX (yes I typed that right TEXAS not New Mexico, I am about 20 miles from Galveston, TX)
Re:
Tireman4 wrote:I think the NHC is really being careful with the one. With the disagreement with the models, I think they want to be as prudent as possible before going the next step. At least that is what I am thinking and I am just a weather watcher.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I agree with you on this point. They cannot just change a track "on a dime" so to speak. We will see what they do as time wears on.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
My name is Nicole and this is what I go by in Storm2k chat! Come chat with us! We have fun in there too!!
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
A teacher's purpose is not to create students in her own image, but to develop students who can create their own image. ~Author Unknown
Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests