ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Sabanic]

Texas bound!!!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

Hey porta. Watching them off and on but more dealing with the present. People will Argue models and I didn't memorize all the different runs along the way. But it looks like another in a series of recent wins for the gfs. Its not been without flaws but we are all going to be taking it a lot more seriously after this season. A quick update from nola is that its been a semi non event thus far. Because of the pacific-like dry northside didn't have any rain at all, we didn't get the jumpstart 4 to 5 inches overnight and this morning. Its gusty and raining off and on now but things should get going this evening (noting the band getting close for the next hour or so). Most people in town are taking a cautious yet partying approach, and God knows we earned that right after katrina and what could have gone down with Gustav. I am interested to see what we end up with since we will be on the near east side of the stall/crawl indicated by several models. Isaac is going down in history as a very memorable tropical storm. The forward speed, the structure, the islands, se Fla, and whatever else is yet to be written. I'm hunkering down with some tasty booze and am prepared to ride the next 30-48 hrs. Good luck to everyone, and I miss you jmmk. This post is the opinion and observation of this poster only. Peace.

Agreed on the GFS. I used to bow before King Euro (not the level ROCK does! ... LOL) but the GFS has highly impressed me this season. We appreciate the report and, you sir, be safe riding out the storm. Please continue to keep us posted.

yeah Steve be safe bro...glad to see you around here more....missed your insights on teleconnections. over the last 9 yrs I have been here you have taught me a lot....


ROCK

[ROCK]

33hr

more southwest heading west....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Texashawk]

So... to summarize the latest model runs, according to the HWRF, the NAM, and another operational model I forget (the HWRR?):





Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ntxw]

I wouldn't give the GFS all the credit yet . Remember Euro sniffed this solution out first 7+ days several times while GFS was coming up the spine of Florida. GFS corrected well though while Euro went the wrong way to come back. Both showed different solutions but the paralleling LA coast was the one common theme both models had when they did.

[ROCK]

36hr...get close to the border....still offshore...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

I wouldn't give the GFS all the credit yet . Remember Euro sniffed this solution out first 7+ days several times while GFS was coming up the spine of Florida. GFS corrected well though while Euro went the wrong way to come back. Both showed different solutions but the paralleling LA coast was the one common theme both models had when they did.

yeah at one time they did show this...but I still hug the EURO more so the GFS...it seems to set the trends...

[Wx_Warrior]

Yesterday, poor Rock said "no more model watching"....LOL, poor fella.

Radar.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I better start getting my boat ready should have gassed that up instead of generators and vehicles lol

[ROCK]

finally its at the border....that took a whole 45 hours.....lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Ntxw]

Latest high resolution (HRW) model

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[PTrackerLA]

Geez another run of the NAM that absolutely just pounds my area with 10"-15"+ of rain .

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Wx_Warrior]

4pm NHC advisory with updated track



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Blinhart]

Who else is shocked that they didn't move the cone further West and slow it down even more.

[djmikey]

Who else is shocked that they didn't move the cone further West and slow it down even more.

ME!!! I was even expected atleast the "watches" to be extended after watching all the model data today.... Wow. We'll see tough....

[wxwatcher1999]

maybe they are waiting to see another run from the GFS before they make any track adjustments

[Tireman4]

I think the NHC is really being careful with the one. With the disagreement with the models, I think they want to be as prudent as possible before going the next step. At least that is what I am thinking and I am just a weather watcher.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Steve]

thanks Rock. I don't really mess with much interaction on the web but with a real threat, I wanted to contribute. Nice band a bit ago but video upload is a crawl. Ill get that up later. Speaking of models, it looks like many models show Isaac will go much farther west than I thought. And speaking of teleconnections, check out the track of Tembin which offers real life support for a loop. If it verifies for Isaac, which it likely won't, tha would be insane beyond anything I've ever seen.

[Nikki]

I think the NHC is really being careful with the one. With the disagreement with the models, I think they want to be as prudent as possible before going the next step. At least that is what I am thinking and I am just a weather watcher.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with you on this point. They cannot just change a track "on a dime" so to speak. We will see what they do as time wears on.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.