ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re:

#5601 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:37 pm

EBrads146 wrote:I think the center is definitely in the process of relocating. The radar seems to be implying this and given the satellite presentation... I can't see it anywhere but the middle of the CDO.

That being said...
Does anyone have Dvorak numbers on this? I'm curious as to what they're implying.


They went up to 3.5/3.5 at the 00z update.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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#5602 Postby Comanche » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:37 pm

Ivan,

You are seeing something independent of the NHC as far as a center relocation.....

000
WTNT44 KNHC 270250
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAAC. HOWEVER...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION IN RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST
THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE AIRCRAFT FIXES HAVE BEEN NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SEEN IN BOTH SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY.
AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION AND SFMR
MEASUREMENTS OF 50-55 KT SUPPORTED INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55
KT ON THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE AIRCRAFT
HAS NOT FOUND ANY STRONGER WINDS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...WARM
WATERS...AND A CONDUCIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FAVOR STRENGTHENING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE
AND LARGE WIND FIELD COULD CONTINUE TO BE IMPEDING FACTORS FOR
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS.

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT ISAAC JOGGED WESTWARD
AND SLOWED DOWN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS
285/12 KT.
THE MODELS SHOW ISAAC TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO
A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON
THIS TURN...THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
AFTER 24 HOURS. THE SPREAD OF LANDFALL LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST RANGES FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WITH THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS NEAR THE
WESTERN EDGE AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEEN MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NHC
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND NEAR THE
HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5603 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:39 pm

Well they have made a mandatory evacuation for all of St. Charles Parish, that is over 54000 people, and they also have other mandatory evacuations for the East Bank portion of Plaquemines Parish, Grand Isle. So there is a lot of mandatory evacuations already. All state offices in the Mississipi Delta (the area of Louisiana that is under Hurricane Warning all 15 parishes) will be closed tomorrow. So the state and local officials are taking this serious. I'm sure if the cone is still where it is right now or even a little more West at the 4am (central) update, there will be even more mandatory evacuations and possibly the extension of the Hurricane Warning, and possibly additional Tropical Storm Warnings lifted for the Louisiana coast and lower parishes.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5604 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:39 pm

Much windier over here than earlier in the day.
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Re: Re:

#5605 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:39 pm

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

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That's why I wish people would stop proclaiming the onset of rapid intensification with out any evidence to back up their statements. There has been something every day in this storm that has made it buck intensification trends. Every day it will look better for a while and people will get on the "this is it's time" bandwagon, and it peters out, not living up to expectations. too many people want this to be another Katrina for some reason, and I just don't know why.


Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.
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#5606 Postby Senobia » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:39 pm

While we're all preoccupied with the tracts and final landfall, let's not forget that TS force winds (Up to 73mph) extend outward from the center some 200mi (at this point). Granted, right now Isaac only has 65mph winds, but this is something to consider, should he strengthen further. Say he gets to a crazy high end Cat 2 with 110mph or a Cat 3 with 120mph max winds. People 200mi in any direction (Mostly NE, tho) stand to see those up to 73mph mph winds.
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#5607 Postby gone2beach » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:41 pm

Mike Reader, WLOX-Biloxi, has been leaning toward a westward trend for Isaac all day and tonight (at least for now) that is holding true. Will be interesting to see what transpires overnight. He also made note of the wide windfield.

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5608 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:41 pm

It seems as if recon has indeed confirmed relocation of the center

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5609 Postby Blinhart » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:46 pm

All the local mets here in Lafayette, La. have trying to make sure people understand that there is a good chance that this storm could end up further West than the projected path right now. So there seems to be a lot of mets that think the West solution is more on base.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5610 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:48 pm

Image
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Re: Re:

#5611 Postby ozonepete » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:50 pm

Time_Zone wrote: Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.


The common thread between some people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.
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Re: Re:

#5612 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:53 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Time_Zone wrote: Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.


The common thread between people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.


Common sense. The longer he takes to get his together the less time he has over open water. Unless of course you expect him to strengthen over land.
Last edited by Time_Zone on Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#5613 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:54 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

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So, in your opinion, this is turning into a dud? We'll know if you are right tomorrow around noon, because, I disagree with you...that's when I think we'll see it really blow. I'm with Met. Bob Breck of Fox 8 in New Orleans...Gulf is primed and it will make landfall as a Cat. 3.
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Re: Re:

#5614 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:55 pm

The common thread between some people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.


:uarrow: I agree; Strong point
Last edited by tolakram on Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed quotes
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Re: Re:

#5615 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:56 pm

Sean in New Orleans wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

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So, in your opinion, this is turning into a dud? We'll know if you are right tomorrow around noon, because, I disagree with you...that's when I think we'll see it really blow. I'm with Met. Bob Breck of Fox 8 in New Orleans...Gulf is primed and it will make landfall as a Cat. 3.


In my opinion yes. but it's nothing more then that an opinion. Could Isaac turn around and make me look like a moron tomorrow? Of course. I just don't think he will...we shall see!
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Re: Re:

#5616 Postby Cyclenall » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:58 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Time_Zone wrote: Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.


The common thread between some people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.

Yep, that was what I was just thinking! :lol: However there is evidence this is significantly strengthening at this moment, invaliding the notion this will continue to sputter like it has been. There is lightning being detected in the inner core which is a sign and the obvious radar trends. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour? Not even close.
Last edited by Cyclenall on Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5617 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sun Aug 26, 2012 10:58 pm

Whoever put a personal disclaimer on my post...thanks. I didn't know we need a disclaimer for stating a television Met's predictions. :wink:
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Re: Re:

#5618 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Time_Zone wrote: Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.


The common thread between some people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.



While I agree that this could be taken as an opposite to the RI statements, I think the difference is that because of it moving closer to the Gulf Coast each hour, it is running out of real estate and the chances do get smaller with each passing hour that goes by. Granted, it might not be a whole lot less. I think though that that could be more scientific evidence than, "It is going to bomb out in the next couple hours."
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Re: Re:

#5619 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:01 pm

Time_Zone wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Time_Zone wrote: Completely agree man. This storm has done nothing thus far to deserve the hype it's getting. Does it have great potential? yes. but it's showing no signs that it will come anywhere near reaching that potential. Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour. Everybody keeps saying "here we go" or "Looks like he's poised for RI!" everytime he improves his structure a bit which is a little silly.


The common thread between people saying it's going to RI and you saying that "Chances of a Major Hurricane are getting smaller and smaller by the hour" is that none of you are offering any scientific evidence as to why.


Common sense. The longer he takes to get his act together the less time he has to "bomb" out.

If this thing were to really 'bomb out' it wouldnt need a full 2 days to attain major status. 2 days is plenty once true rapid intensification sets in, if it ever does. That said, this is clearly NOT rapidly intensifying. If you have to question whether it is happening or not, its not happening. Recon doesnt show it is, satellite presentation-though improving-doesnt show its, radar doesnt show it is. Can it in the future? yes, conditions are favorable for a good amount of strengthening, so dont let your guard down. But it is still working out the structural kinks right now and just because the cold cloud tops are pretty is not an excuse to sound the RI horn.
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#5620 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 26, 2012 11:01 pm

Why are some acting like the models have Isaac taking off tonight? They don't. It's tomorrow when the ULL relaxes and he pulls completely away from Cuba.
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