ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Issac is ingesting more unstable air.

CAPE = 2500 in the core

3500 on the NW and NE quads

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[Time_Zone]

Loop of 30 frames ending at 12:55Z, 8:55AM EDT

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

Is it improving, or sucking in dry air?

Isaac has always had a bit of a fetish for dry air....not surprised to see him doing his best to eat some more.

[hurricanes1234]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Impressive on satellite imagery - although nothing much has changed, in terms of intensity. This might only briefly graze hurricane status with peak winds of 75 mph. 90 mph, for me, is too aggressive, because it is difficult for a 65 mph storm that is a mess at the low levels to quickly strengthen to a strong Category 1 in a couple of days. This means that everything must come together at the last minute. Even though the possibility is definitely there for this to become a hurricane, I also think it would be on the low-end of Category 1 status, probably 80 mph for the most. Or, Isaac could quickly get its act together - in a few hours - and then explode from there, into a full-blown Category 2/minimal Category 3, which I don't see as the case, simply because it's been on the verge of exploding for days now.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong in anything here, preferably without any insults or mockeries.

[rainstorm]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

thats a classic picture of dry air contamination. there is little or no moisture inflow into isaac and its surrounded by clear dry air. you can clearly see where the dry air is being sucked in. if it collapses again today during the diurnal minimum it may come in as a messy TS.

[tolakram]

90 frame visible loop, from first light.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

[Janie2006]

He's going to have to get his act together in a hurry simply because he's running out of prime real estate. Certainly my own forecast has busted in terms of intensity at this point, as I had expected a low-to-mid range Cat 1 by this time. I'm still not going to say that Isaac can't ramp it up, as the saying goes, but I'm not bullish about his possibilities either.

[rainstorm]

He's going to have to get his act together in a hurry simply because he's running out of prime real estate. Certainly my own forecast has busted in terms of intensity at this point, as I had expected a low-to-mid range Cat 1 by this time. I'm still not going to say that Isaac can't ramp it up, as the saying goes, but I'm not bullish about his possibilities either.

yea, i thought isaac would break the amazing streak of years without a major landfall.

[tropicwatch]

90 frame visible loop, from first light.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

Awwwwsome imagery

[HurrMark]

It's amazing how much back and forth there is...a burst of convection, people say it's RI. A little break in convection, it's falling apart. The thing is, this is a bona fide strong TS that is approaching hurricane strength. Reconaissance has already discussed that earlier. I am not trying to nitpick or call people out, but almost every single storm goes through these cycles.

[tolakram]

Top down view looks a little better.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[sphelps8681]

With him still being a tropical storm ingesting dry air will he continue on wnw motion and not feel the weakness or is he close of enough that he will still be pulled toward it.

[JtSmarts]

It's amazing how much back and forth there is...a burst of convection, people say it's RI. A little break in convection, it's falling apart. The thing is, this is a bona fide strong TS that is approaching hurricane strength. Reconaissance has already discussed that earlier. I am not trying to nitpick or call people out, but almost every single storm goes through these cycles.

Good post, sometimes we need to just step away from computer for awhile, but it always been this way on storm2k as long as I can remember. You might have ten straight posts which each one saying something completely opposite of the one before it . Anyway I think at this point we won't see a 2004/2005 type storm but one that continues to slowly organize and strengthen until landfall ala a 2003 Claudette or 2008 Dolly.

[funster]

Isaac seems to be slowly growing in size to me. Spreading out in GOM

knows nothing / not official

[ConvergenceZone]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/cgi-bin/latest.cgi?ir-e

thats a classic picture of dry air contamination. there is little or no moisture inflow into isaac and its surrounded by clear dry air. you can clearly see where the dry air is being sucked in. if it collapses again today during the diurnal minimum it may come in as a messy TS.

I'm starting to agree with you now rainstorm. I thought I'd wake up to a hurricane, but now knows if it will ever get there....This is a strange season this year....But we should be happy if it doesn't reach hurricane strength.....Just very strange is all.....

[LAwxrgal]

For obvious reasons I'd be thrilled if Isaac never reached hurricane strength. (given that the projected path goes right over my house) I'm already sick of him and want him to just dissipate.

[Annie Oakley]

http://www.wwltv.com/live-stream/exempt

Louisiana live coverage

[Janie2006]

It's amazing how much back and forth there is...a burst of convection, people say it's RI. A little break in convection, it's falling apart. The thing is, this is a bona fide strong TS that is approaching hurricane strength. Reconaissance has already discussed that earlier. I am not trying to nitpick or call people out, but almost every single storm goes through these cycles.

Good post, sometimes we need to just step away from computer for awhile, but it always been this way on storm2k as long as I can remember. You might have ten straight posts which each one saying something completely opposite of the one before it . Anyway I think at this point we won't see a 2004/2005 type storm but one that continues to slowly organize and strengthen until landfall ala a 2003 Claudette or 2008 Dolly.

I had to step away last night out of irritation because of the back and forth over each new bit of information. My point was that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a strong Cat 1 at landfall, but that the window of opportunity for anything else is beginning to close unless Isaac slows down and can shake off the issues he's having at the moment.

[wxwatcher1999]

I keep hearing about the weakness but is it going to dig down deep enough?

[tolakram]

It's amazing how much back and forth there is...a burst of convection, people say it's RI. A little break in convection, it's falling apart. The thing is, this is a bona fide strong TS that is approaching hurricane strength. Reconaissance has already discussed that earlier. I am not trying to nitpick or call people out, but almost every single storm goes through these cycles.

Good post, sometimes we need to just step away from computer for awhile, but it always been this way on storm2k as long as I can remember. You might have ten straight posts which each one saying something completely opposite of the one before it . Anyway I think at this point we won't see a 2004/2005 type storm but one that continues to slowly organize and strengthen until landfall ala a 2003 Claudette or 2008 Dolly.

I had to step away last night out of irritation because of the back and forth over each new bit of information. My point was that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a strong Cat 1 at landfall, but that the window of opportunity for anything else is beginning to close unless Isaac slows down and can shake off the issues he's having at the moment.

Well this IS a discussion board, we do this for fun. Stepping away is probably the best thing to do. For the most accurate up to date information that matters the NHC and local weather authorities is the place to go.

[tailgater]

if the recon extrap. surface pressure is right, it's down to 996mb and not to the center yet.

duh please cancel my latest dumb post.