ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Texashawk]

The long-range radar loop out of Tampa clearly shows an eye or eyewall, and given all the caveats for tilt, distance, etc. it still looks to be moving just north of west:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=TBW&type=L20&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

[tolakram]

For those who missed the link, live 1 minute floater loop. Flash Required.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

[tolakram]

saved Tampa radar loop

[BigEasy]

CAPE now 3000 in Isaac's core.

Going up rapidly

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

Curious what CAPE 3000 relates to GCane? Thanks in advance

CAPE (convective available potential energy) is a measurement of how unstable the atmosphere is. 3000 is a very high number.

So more of an unstable atmosphere = better enviroment for intensification, or not?

[Texashawk]

For those who missed the link, live 1 minute floater loop. Flash Required.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

That is gorgeous. Love this view!

[SouthDadeFish]

Microwave imagery reveals a rather ragged looking storm, with the affects of dry air seen in the SE quadrant. There are slight hints of an eyewall trying to form, with a cyan ring near where the center is located.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks more NW if you asked me and with what Recon keeps finding.

[BigB0882]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My prediction is that it will finally reach hurricane strength in 12-18 hours. I am guessing it will be an 80-85 mph Hurricane at landfall.

[RL3AO]

So more of an unstable atmosphere = better enviroment for intensification, or not?

It should allow convection to develop very easily. That will help with intensification, but wind shear and organization of the core will have a bigger say.

[Dean4Storms]

I think a bump to 70mph at 11EST based on Recon.

[tolakram]

So more of an unstable atmosphere = better enviroment for intensification, or not?

To a certain extent yes. Only one measure of environment needed for intensification.

[jinftl]

The large size of Isaac...his circulation reaches hundreds of miles...will impede his ability to ramp up quickly i believe (think Ike's challenge to intensify in Gulf) if he has shown one thing to florida, it's that especially for the less organized systems that have huge circulations, being near the center or away from it makes little difference in weather experienced.

Highest gusts yesterday in the Keys were in the 65-70mph range. 250 miles east of the center of isaac, West Palm, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami areas saw gusts of 55-65 mph in many location.

The heaviest rain in Florida also took place 250 miles from the center in Palm Beach county where 10-13" fell in large parts of the county.

[Stormcenter]

MS. coastline landfall is still very possible IMO.

[GCANE]

CAPE (convective available potential energy) is a measurement of how unstable the atmosphere is. 3000 is a very high number.

So more of an unstable atmosphere = better enviroment for intensification, or not?

That's right

[Javlin]

Upper cloud pattern says NW for the short term and then we have recon

[BigEasy]

So more of an unstable atmosphere = better enviroment for intensification, or not?

It should allow convection to develop very easily. That will help with intensification, but wind shear and organization of the core will have a bigger say.

Thank you.

Looking at that latest animation link posted, an eye may almost be ready to pop out, POSSIBLY, but marginally.

[hcane27]

MS. coastline landfall is still very possible IMO.

I agree. Based upon the latest positions reports from the NHC the system is moving approximately 315 degrees , 12 kts .... MS is definitely in the possible .....

[BigEasy]

So more of an unstable atmosphere = better enviroment for intensification, or not?

To a certain extent yes. Only one measure of environment needed for intensification.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[jinftl]

He may 'only' be a 65 mph storm, but this image really shows what defined banding features Isaac has. Cool to see them all spiraling in unison. This system has 'the bones' in place. Not to mention he still has bands with 50 mph gusts 250-300 miles east of his center.

saved Tampa radar loop

[MGC]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Isaac looks to have gotten a bit more organized overnight...should slowly intensify and reach hurricane intensity later today. I don't expect the hurricane to exceed Cat-1. Should start feeling the effects early this coming morning. Have just a few things to get done securing the house....good luck to all in the path of Isaac......MGC