#76 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 19, 2012 5:40 pm
From the 22:05 UTC discussion:
EXPECT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N100W TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR 10N100W WHILE THE CENTRAL PRES GRADUALLY DEEPENS
AND THE OUTER WIND FIELD STEADILY STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO BECOME MORE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE E
PACIFIC E OF 110W. EXPECT TO SEE ENHANCED N-NE WINDS SPILLING
ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN THROUGH
MON BASED ON GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. A KEY FACTOR WILL BE FORMATION
OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE HIGH PRES
BUILDS S ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. ONSET SHOULD OCCUR IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT. WINDS DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUPPLY POSITIVE VORTICITY TO
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND
MAY ALLOW TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS TO EVENTUALLY OCCUR. GFS MODEL
IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER FOR ITS AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UKMET AND ECMWF ARE MORE RESTRAINED
IN DEVELOPING THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA THROUGH TUE...AND ARE THE
BASIS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS.
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