ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Shear will not be a big problem.
SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12062 ... _ships.txt
SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12062 ... _ships.txt
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
yeah BAMMS are a very -2 cents...but they do provide hints on steering layers....shallow, Medium and Deep...anyway I always found them sort of helpful...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
cycloneye wrote:First Tropical model run:
[code]
WHXX01 KWBC 211828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU JUN 21 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120621 1800 UTC
]
So no hurricane- just a storm then. This is better than global as far as intensity?
Sent from my SCH-I510 using Tapatalk 2
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- Rgv20
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Honestly the UKMET was the one that until now has not change its mind on this being a Western Gulf threat.....If I'm not mistaken tho UKMET has a biased toward overdoing ridges.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
bamajammer4eva wrote:cycloneye wrote:First Tropical model run:
[code]
WHXX01 KWBC 211828
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1828 UTC THU JUN 21 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962012) 20120621 1800 UTC
]
So no hurricane- just a storm then. This is better than global as far as intensity?
Sent from my SCH-I510 using Tapatalk 2
Is only the first run,and for sure with each run changes will occur. The models for intensity are HWRF and GFDL that will be out after 6 PM EDT.
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- latitude_20
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Not a lot of surface convergence to speak of right now - but upper divergence looks good.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Inland over Texas
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot
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- Rgv20
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Judging by the ECMWF it looks like a pretty good size hurricane....Anybody agree?
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot
How quickly it gets organized I think is more important than where. It has a time period of 2-3 days if it's going to make an eastern/northern gulf landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Shear will not be a big problem.
SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 4 2 11 1 2 13 14 15 14 13
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12062 ... _ships.txt
oh man that is not good....
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Just too many variables. still no defined center and until that happens we just wont know. if it consolidates farther east today where all the convection is than the models are initializing about 200 off. that changes a lot
How quickly it gets organized I think is more important than where. It has a time period of 2-3 days if it's going to make an eastern/northern gulf landfall.
Looking as this disturbance is Monsoonal in origin is going to take a while to get going. I suspect that in 3 days is going to be a depression maybe a lower end TS.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
A reminder that we have the 96L main discussion thread to talk all about the system,radars,sat images etc.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112976&p=2231934#p2231934
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112976&p=2231934#p2231934
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