EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

The 12z SHIP RI forecast still is very high on all categories.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 48% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

[Yellow Evan]

The 12z SHIP RI forecast still is very high on all categories.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 48% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

Not as high as last night. Still have high hopes for this storm though.

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kts. Interesting lines at discussion about the RI intensity and how Daniel may be an important part of that.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

THE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA REMAINS ELONGATED DUE TO
A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW SINK FROM
HURRICANE DANIEL. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT CURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH
SOME EVIDENCE OF A PRIMITIVE INNER CORE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT...WITH AMSU AND ADT
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT CONSIDERING THE ORGANIZATION SEEN
ON MICROWAVE DATA.

ASSUMING THAT EMILIA DOES NOT GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW
FROM DANIEL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW
THIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN
OVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NEW
FORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. WEAKENING SHOULD START IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN SSTS BEGIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS THE
BIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL CAUSE A MORE
POLEWARD MOTION OF EMILIA BEYOND THREE DAYS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...WITH THE FINAL
TRACK GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 11.2N 105.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

NHC being less conservative here, then several hours ago, though RI looks slightly less likely.

[euro6208]

emilia looks like one of those wpac storms (but smaller) that would rapidly intensify all the way to a cat 4 or 5 but emilia will most likely peak at only 85 knots...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

I dont see the Daniel's outflow going into Emily looking at the loop. That means the RI proccess may be on hand pretty soon.

[cycloneye]

The 18z Best Track goes up to 55kts.

EP, 05, 2012070818, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1068W, 55, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

The 18z Best Track goes up to 55kts.

EP, 05, 2012070818, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1068W, 55, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Looks like it is well on its way to hurricane status.

[cycloneye]

On the 18z SHIP RI forecast,it has gone down a little bit.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

[Cyclenall]

ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW
THIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN
OVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NEW
FORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.

If Emilia is strengthening, why would the ring dissipate? I actually see it still in visible imagery but its tough to see overall. I'm going to have to distance myself from that line since it looks to be a total non-factor.

NHC being less conservative here, then several hours ago, though RI looks slightly less likely.

RI seems as likely as it was last night, around 90%. Everytime someone says its less likely or it won't happen, that's when it starts...like right now!

The 18z Best Track goes up to 55kts.

EP, 05, 2012070818, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1068W, 55, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Probably be around 60-65 knots by actual advisory.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In the past few hours, the convection is tightly wrapping right into it and rapidly improving simultaneously. This probably is the start of the RI/EI and by early tomorrow (12:00 am EDT) it should be a hurricane. I'm still thinking this becomes a major.

[Yellow Evan]

On the 18z SHIP RI forecast,it has gone down a little bit.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

Yeah, but it is still pretty high IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

If Emilia is strengthening, why would the ring dissipate? I actually see it still in visible imagery but its tough to see overall. I'm going to have to distance myself from that line since it looks to be a total non-factor.

NHC being less conservative here, then several hours ago, though RI looks slightly less likely.

RI seems as likely as it was last night, around 90%. Everytime someone says its less likely or it won't happen, that's when it starts...like right now!

The 18z Best Track goes up to 55kts.

EP, 05, 2012070818, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1068W, 55, 997, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Probably be around 60-65 knots by actual advisory.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In the past few hours, the convection is tightly wrapping right into it and rapidly improving simultaneously. This probably is the start of the RI/EI and by early tomorrow (12:00 am EDT) it should be a hurricane. I'm still thinking this becomes a major.

It will likely be a hurricane tonight, but the posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Zanthe]

...Is that an eye forming already?

[cycloneye]

...Is that an eye forming already?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS

Not a true eye but certainly an eye feature is developing rapidly. This maybe is starting an RI now.

[Yellow Evan]

...Is that an eye forming already?

Yea, but it is not that unusual for a 55 knt system to have an eye.

[Zanthe]

...Is that an eye forming already?

Yea, but it is not that unusual for a 55 knt system to have an eye.

True, it just looked like it formed sort of fast.

[cycloneye]

NHC now forecasts major hurricane.Cyclenall,what do you think of them going that far high as we know they go conservative?

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME ELONGATION TO THE
NORTH...BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND CURVED
AROUND THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS
SUGGESTED A BANDING EYE WAS ATTEMPTING TO FORM. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT...WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAN ON SOMEWHAT
HIGHER MICROWAVE-BASED ESTIMATES.

NOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...IT APPEARS THAT
EMILIA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT ANY TIME WITH WATER TEMPERATURES
NEAR 29C AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ALSO SUGGESTS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE EVENT IS
DIFFICULT...IT IS PROBABLE THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN
SSTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 285/13. EMILIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT LIES SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. WHILE A TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION AFTER THAT TIME...THE
BULK OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW RIDGING BUILDING IN BETWEEN THAT
FEATURE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE WOULD CAUSE EMILIA TO
TURN WESTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME FRAME. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 11.4N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 12.1N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 12.7N 111.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 13.4N 113.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 13.9N 115.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.3N 118.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 14.8N 122.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 15.5N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

NHC forecast is getting more and more agressive.

[Yellow Evan]

...Is that an eye forming already?

Yea, but it is not that unusual for a 55 knt system to have an eye.

True, it just looked like it formed sort of fast.

Rick 09 formed faster.

[cycloneye]

An eyewall forming?