ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

I understand the area south of Pensacola is what the NHC is looking at right now but the area south of the SE LA. coastline looks even more interesting right now. IMO

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=10

[GCRain]

That feature came through eastern coastal Mississippi last night and produced the most impressively continuous thunder I have any memory of ever experiencing. Literally, rolling thunder, non stop, for 45 minutes minimum. It could have been much longer but that is how long it continued after it woke me up.

I'm in Gulfport and was amazed at that thunder.I agree with you.Have never heard continous thunder like that last night.

[tropicwatch]

I understand the area south of Pensacola is what the NHC is looking at right now but the area south of the SE LA. coastline looks even more interesting right now. IMO

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=10

Here are conditions from a buoy in that area:

Station 42040
NDBC
Location: 29.212N 88.207W
09/05/2012 2050 UTC
Winds: SW (220°) at 21.4 kts
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and steady
Air Temperature: 77.5 °F
Water Temperature: 82.4 °F

And one from south of Pensacola:

Station 42012
NDBC
Location: 30.065N 87.555W
09/05/2012 2150 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SW (214°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.2 °F
Dew Point: 74.8 °F
Water Temperature: 82.6 °F

Both areas will be watched carefully I am sure. Another wait and see game.

[toto]

.

I had a sixth sense that Isaac would pull a crazy Ivan.

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[Hurricane Alexis]

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I had a sixth sense that Isaac would pull a crazy Ivan.

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Didn't pull an Ivan entirely as 90L is a secondary low spawned by Isaac, not the main one. That's the reason why it will have a new name if it does get named.

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO up to 50%

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[chaser1]

Over the course of the day, there really has been little or no increased development with 90L. I am not all that impressed by it given the shear it is under and looks to continue to fight through tomm. I have a feeling that the recon flight will be cancelled with followup flights pending further developoment.

[Bluefrog]

I agree about the thunder. I'm in Pascagoula MS. I woke up at about 3 to the continuous lightning and thunder. I have to agree I have never experienced that before either.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track drops pressure by one millibar.

AL, 90, 2012090600, , BEST, 0, 296N, 878W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[tropicwatch]

This is the lowest pressure I have found during the past two hours.

Station 42012
NDBC
Location: 30.065N 87.555W
09/05/2012 2350 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 3.3 ft
Dominant Wave period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SSW (210°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.81 in and steady 1009.36mb
Air Temperature: 81.1 °F
Dew Point: 74.3 °F
Water Temperature: 82.6 °F

[Emmett_Brown]

Convection has been looking meager over the past couple of hours, but looks like some new towers may be getting ready to fire just off the mouth of the Mississippi.... perhaps the start of some dmax enhancement?

[ROCK]

I agree with SC.....under LA is where I would look for a LLC to set up shop....have some low level inflow from the west racing towards it...

[Hurricane Alexis]

If it makes landfall in central florida, the northwesterly shear cause by the front would cause all the convection to be to the SE of the center putting SFL under the main convection.

[greenkat]

I for one am hoping for a nice severe weather outbreak for FL when the whole thing comes through.

Why?!!

[Hyperstorm]

The following post is NOT an official forecast. Refer to the NHC for official information.

This system clearly reminds me of the pre-cyclone stages of Danny in 1997. I expect a blow up of convection to begin late tonight and into tomorrow morning. That should help consolidate a surface low SE of Louisiana. I agree with the NHC that this has a very good chance of developing. I see this one as a go as early as late tomorrow.

And Hurricane Season 2012 keeps on rolling...

[bonjourno]

Not looking so hot ATM.

[greenkat]

Not looking so hot ATM.

That dry air is really feeding into the center of circulation, I think this system won't develop into a TS until it gets completely into the Gulf.


This is crazy. We're dealing with a probable N storm and it's not even past the peak of hurricane season. Combine that with the fact that it's a probable El Nino year...

[meriland23]

what are the chances that it will turn into a hurricane eventually you think?

[bonjourno]

Maybe I spoke too soon. 2 hours later, seems like it's blowing up again.

I kind of doubt that it'll be a hurricane - TS status at best here. Mostly just because there's so little time/room for it to intensify before its projected landfall (around 96-120 hours at this point).

The posts in this forum -- including the above --- are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here's some of the intensity projections from WeatherUnderground

[feederband]

I for one am hoping for a nice severe weather outbreak for FL when the whole thing comes through.

Why?!!

I feel the same way..Its Hurricane Season , time for action...Although I hope only trees get broken and the oceans get a extra nanoliter of water...

No fun when you cant have the wobble wars and trying to stay awake for the next track updates..