ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

Does anyone on here know what Grand Isle, La can expect in terms of surge? Media reporting 5-10 feet. There is a HUGE difference between 5 and 10 feet.

I don't know if this is the most recent forecast or not but this NWS/NOAA site suggests 3-5 feet.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=z1

[KWT]

Yeah there is the makings of an eye present now on most forms of imagery, it is still taking in dry air though so thats going to limit the strengthening, maybe thats also keeping down the winds a little.

[CrazyC83]

New Orleans levees can hold back a cat 3. Everything else will over top. They won't fail.

Levees hold back flooding and storm surge, not winds.

Correct, a very large Cat 1 (i.e. size of Irene or Igor) could overtop them, while a small Cat 4 (i.e. Charley) would likely not do so.

[monicaei]

Does anyone on here know what Grand Isle, La can expect in terms of surge? Media reporting 5-10 feet. There is a HUGE difference between 5 and 10 feet.

I don't know if this is the most recent forecast or not but this NWS/NOAA site suggests 3-5 feet.

[url]http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php?Ty=e10&Th=10&Z=z

THANK YOU

[capepoint]

Does anyone on here know what Grand Isle, La can expect in terms of surge? Media reporting 5-10 feet. There is a HUGE difference between 5 and 10 feet.

Expect and plan for the worst. nobody can give you any more exact information than you have already gotten. Remember that you have to consider tide phase and wave action in addition to the surge levels. In addition, waterway configuration plays a big part in surge depth. Thats why there is such a spread in the numbers, there is no way to predict it closer than that.

Be safe.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah there is the makings of an eye present now on most forms of imagery, it is still taking in dry air though so thats going to limit the strengthening, maybe thats also keeping down the winds a little.

True, and thats why we probably wont see this system ever undergo true rapid strengthening. He should still strengthen steadily though, and thats all thats necessary to turn this into a dangerous storm wind-wise. The dry air is certainly keeping the eye development process slow, tops have been warming since the eye feature appeared. However it looks like another strong burst is coming up in the direct center of the eye, meaning its likely to be obscured in the coming frames.

[cycloneye]

Those last minute folks that have not voted yet on the intensity landfall poll, hurry to vote as it closes at 6 PM EDT. So far there are 117 votes casted.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113529&hilit=&start=0

[Aric Dunn]

so far today is been consistently right of the nhc advisory positions.

[ROCK]

JB on the radio....thinks a cat 2-3 into SE LA....pretty much the 1947 storm all over again with the attack angle pushing all that water in Poncho...he say it could be worse than Katrina for NO because of the angle.

just repeating what he said if that is allowed on here. He was on Hannity...

[ColdFusion]

JB on the radio....thinks a cat 2-3 into SE LA....pretty much the 1947 storm all over again with the attack angle pushing all that water in Poncho...he say it could be worse than Katrina for NO because of the angle.

just repeating what he said if that is allowed on here. He was on Hannity...

[deltadog03]

Still moving NNW to atleast NW in the short term...heck maybe a 340 motion ?

[ConvergenceZone]

JB on the radio....thinks a cat 2-3 into SE LA....pretty much the 1947 storm all over again with the attack angle pushing all that water in Poncho...he say it could be worse than Katrina for NO because of the angle.

just repeating what he said if that is allowed on here. He was on Hannity...

I like JB, but for him to say it can be worse than Katrina, I"m not too sure that's a good thing for him to say to the public.

[Aric Dunn]

So yeah for a little or than 3 hours the motion has been a solid nnw with room to spare. to be honest I think it would be prudent in some cases for the nhc to do 3 hour averages especially in cases like this where the wobbles and the shifting around makes a huge difference doing a six hour motion of wnw to nw is fine out in the middle of the atlantic now is when it matter.

[Time_Zone]

Isaac is ingesting huge amounts of dry air right now. Looks like he'll be holding steady for another few hours. Chances of becoming a cat 2 or 3 hurricane are decreasing greatly. looks like it'll strike as a category 1 for sure.

[monicaei]

JB on the radio....thinks a cat 2-3 into SE LA....pretty much the 1947 storm all over again with the attack angle pushing all that water in Poncho...he say it could be worse than Katrina for NO because of the angle.

just repeating what he said if that is allowed on here. He was on Hannity...

Is there any scientific reasoning behind this? I'm a novice, but that's a HUGE statement. Might as well say the levees are gonna fail and a few thousand people are gonna die. If this is possible, what's the scenario that sets it up?

[BigEasy]

JB on the radio....thinks a cat 2-3 into SE LA....pretty much the 1947 storm all over again with the attack angle pushing all that water in Poncho...he say it could be worse than Katrina for NO because of the angle.

just repeating what he said if that is allowed on here. He was on Hannity...

I could see that, BUT with a BIG but. The levee infrastructure is much better today, then 7 years ago, by far. No comparison. And if the levees would ot have failde, there would have been much less damage. Basically very little as far as flooding went/goes. Wind damage could be the same, ONLY if Isaac takes the projected path, because the winds that will be experienced will basically be equal. Katrina, New Orleans area got the west side of Katrina; 105mph gusts. Isaac, with the direct path forecast, winds would/could gust similarly. So the wind damage amy be close to equal, but the water and floodign event, will be much less. Only potentila fly in the ointment.....rainfall totals, of which with Isaac, it appears and is forecast to be mcu wetter. And alot slower speed.

We shall see.

[gboudx]

Joe posted his basis for that comment on his Twitter:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Katrina surge vs forecast with Isaac pic.twitter.com/rlfzQGLH

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

http://w1.weather.gov/tcig/php/tcig_ind ... at=coastal … form noaa office in NewOrleans. predicting Katrina like values for New Orleans pic.twitter.com/rKiXl6Si

[Kingarabian]

LOL @ JB. Katrina was a Cat.5 monster. Katrina would eat Isaac alive.

[PTrackerLA]

It moved nearly due West for a few hours earlier, may be wobbling more NNW but in the end these even out and the NHC track looks dead on to me.

[Dean4Storms]

Still moving NNW to atleast NW in the short term...heck maybe a 340 motion ?

It caught my attention a while ago, I'm more concerned with this situation because once they said it was going to LA everyone here in the Panhandle relaxed. Hope this storm doesn't feel that trough and pull a Charley on us! Go right young man!