WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Category 5 Super Typhoon landfall...what a way to end this active and devastating season...Based on satellite estimates, Bopha made landfall in the neighborhood of 160 knots...God bless the Philippines!

There wasn't even an eye at landfall, how on earth did you arrive at a value of 160 knots at landfall? Hours before there was a very tight and round eye in a perfect CDO but it faded.

Oh no, it didn't lose its eye until right after landfall. T-numbers as the storm came ashore were T7.5 T7.5 T7.5 from UW-CIMSS and T6.5/T7.5 from SSD.

Either way, the storm was >140 knots.

[HurricaneBill]

Lumbia reporting sustained winds of 76 mph!

Lumbia, Philippines on Weather Underground

[supercane4867]

T numbers are for reference only, the actual intensity remains unkown without recon to confirm it
You can clearly see the weakening trend just prior to landfall on false-color infrared image, since I belive Bopha was stronger at its peak, I'd put the landfall intensity around 140kts

[RobWESTPACWX]

Call for help, any one want to help me get max winds recorded thus far, if you have a good site to use in the southern Philippines, now I understand that reports are vague but see what we can stir up..

[mrbagyo]

according to RED cross COMVAL chapter, many municipalities are under water - (waist deep.) many houses are COMPLETELY DESTROYED. NDRRMC also confirmed 1 casualty, but that number will rise

[Crostorm]

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 8.7N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.7N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.0N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.4N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 123.5E.
TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTHEAST OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
NNNN

[ROCK]

I dont typically post about West pac TCs but this is one for the record books...A super typhoon organizing at 5 degresss lat??? that is just plain absurd!!


yes I am in Chicago on business and had $80 worth of crown and coke!!

[Cyclenall]

Category 5 Super Typhoon landfall...what a way to end this active and devastating season...Based on satellite estimates, Bopha made landfall in the neighborhood of 160 knots...God bless the Philippines!

There wasn't even an eye at landfall, how on earth did you arrive at a value of 160 knots at landfall? Hours before there was a very tight and round eye in a perfect CDO but it faded.

so how strong do you think it was? i'm convinced it was a Cat 5 (7.5= 155 knots) landfall just a matter of how strong...



eye or no eye?

It looked to be around 105-110 knots at landfall. It didn't look as good at landfall as Hurricane Sandy (Cuba landfall) or Hurricane Carlotta (Mexico) to me. I've never seen a category 5 TC look that bad before in my years of tracking TCs so I doubt it was one at LF. I'm not even sure it was 140 knots before weakening because the eye wasn't fully cleared but maybe the perfect symmetry made up for it. I think if those T-numbers were showing 7.5 at landfall time, someone really needs to check the software because if Bopha was in the Epac it wouldn't even be past 130 knots.

I've not seen the product posted before, on IR the eye was very weak or barely present at landfall. Same with SAT imagery.

Oh no, it didn't lose its eye until right after landfall. T-numbers as the storm came ashore were T7.5 T7.5 T7.5 from UW-CIMSS and T6.5/T7.5 from SSD.

Either way, the storm was >140 knots.

Technically there was an eye but barely.

With all that said, Bopha looks terrible right now. Small size didn't help.

yes I am in Chicago on business and had $80 worth of crown and coke!!

Maybe that's what the satellite estimates were on when Bopha was making landfall.

[madness]

Offically, Typhoon Bopha is in the area of responsibility for Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Their classification at 1800Z / 4am AEST (my timezone in Eastern Australia) was:
The JMA Intensity "Very Strong" will be Category 4

TY 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 3 December 2012
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N7°35'(7.6°) E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

Now, the centre has moved across Mindanao and has reentered water
The 0600Z update (4pm AEST update for my timezone) from JMA was:
To maintain category 1 strength after crossing through Mindanao is impressive

TY 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 4 December 2012
Analyses at 04/06 UTC
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N8°40'(8.7°) E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

[wxmann_91]

There wasn't even an eye at landfall, how on earth did you arrive at a value of 160 knots at landfall? Hours before there was a very tight and round eye in a perfect CDO but it faded.

so how strong do you think it was? i'm convinced it was a Cat 5 (7.5= 155 knots) landfall just a matter of how strong...

[img][/img]

eye or no eye?

It looked to be around 105-110 knots at landfall. It didn't look as good at landfall as Hurricane Sandy (Cuba landfall) or Hurricane Carlotta (Mexico) to me. I've never seen a category 5 TC look that bad before in my years of tracking TCs so I doubt it was one at LF. I'm not even sure it was 140 knots before weakening because the eye wasn't fully cleared but maybe the perfect symmetry made up for it. I think if those T-numbers were showing 7.5 at landfall time, someone really needs to check the software because if Bopha was in the Epac it wouldn't even be past 130 knots.

I've not seen the product posted before, on IR the eye was very weak or barely present at landfall. Same with SAT imagery.

Oh no, it didn't lose its eye until right after landfall. T-numbers as the storm came ashore were T7.5 T7.5 T7.5 from UW-CIMSS and T6.5/T7.5 from SSD.

Either way, the storm was >140 knots.

[img][/img]

Technically there was an eye but barely.

With all that said, Bopha looks terrible right now. Small size didn't help.

I highly doubt it was 105-110 kt at landfall. Unlike many of the recent NGOM storms, Bopha maintained a stable inner core structure and a closed eyewall at landfall. This was very evident in both microwave imagery and the local radar. I don't think this was a Cat 5 at landfall, but I would estimate it as pretty close... maybe 125-135 kt at landfall.

[senorpepr]

I think if those T-numbers were showing 7.5 at landfall time, someone really needs to check the software because if Bopha was in the Epac it wouldn't even be past 130 knots. Before, on IR the eye was very weak or barely present at landfall. Same with SAT imagery.

Even the agencies' hand Dvorak was at T7.5. I also did a quick Dvorak estimate myself and came up with 7.5, based on eye temperature versus the coldest cloud tops surrounding the eye that was at least 30 n mi wide. Based on procedures, unless recon would be there to confirm otherwise, if this was in the EPAC or Atlantic, it would have been cat 5.

[redneck51]

Can somebody please give me a link to the satellite floater images for this typhoon? Thanks!

[supercane4867]

Can somebody please give me a link to the satellite floater images for this typhoon? Thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[redneck51]

Can somebody please give me a link to the satellite floater images for this typhoon? Thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

Thanks a lot!

[dexterlabio]

It must be the biggest joke ever when you say Bopha won't even make past Cat3 in EPAC or wherever else in the world before it made landfall. It was clearly stronger than any hurricanes in the EPAC or the Atlantic this year, at any point in time when it turned major. The only tropical cyclone to beat this one is either Jelawat or Sanba. Sandy is nowhere close to Bopha, even at its peak strength near Cuba. And also, Bopha may have already peaked before landfall (obviously cloud tops would have warmed because of land interaction) but the eye was still very intact then and was only disrupted inland. It could be a high-end Category 4 at the VERY least at landfall... Those who think otherwise should check their source very carefully, because it is likely outdated or something.

[dexterlabio]

I highly doubt it was 105-110 kt at landfall. Unlike many of the recent NGOM storms, Bopha maintained a stable inner core structure and a closed eyewall at landfall. This was very evident in both microwave imagery and the local radar. I don't think this was a Cat 5 at landfall, but I would estimate it as pretty close... maybe 125-135 kt at landfall.

same thoughts! i would place the intensity close to 130 or 135 knots at landfall.

[Meow]

Epic fail.

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 8.7N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.7N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.0N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.4N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 123.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

any reports from our friends in mindanao? hopefully nothing worse...

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 8.7N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.7N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 10.9N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 12.0N 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 12.9N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.7N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.4N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 14.8N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 9.6N 122.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 36//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH OF
ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SULU SEA. THE
SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED AS IT HAS INTERACTED WITH THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND DECREASED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST SIX
HOURS. A 041220Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES WEAKENING HAS
OCCURRED WITH DECREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM RJTD AND PGTW RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES 26W IS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION
OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM
HAS WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT TY BOPHA CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TY 26W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DURING
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TY BOPHA WILL TRANSIT THROUGH A REGION OF
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS,
PARTICULARLY PALAWAN, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING
OR ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE BY TAU 36 AS TY 26W MOVES OVER MORE OPEN WATERS.
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT TAU 48, AT WHICH POINT THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TRACKING MORE SLOWLY AS THE STR STEERING INFLUENCE
DECREASES. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ENCOUNTERS A NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON
SURGE, INCREASING VWS, AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UNTIL AFTER TAU 24, WHEN MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
UNDER WEAK STEERING IN A COL REGION BETWEEN THE STR LOBES. FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS A SECOND MONSOON SURGE OCCURS, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR INCREASES, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPRESSES THE DEEP
CONVECTION. AT TAU 72 MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 400 NM AS THE
TRACKERS HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TAUS.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Big time weakening