ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[windnrain]

So guys... A lot of people here in Baton Rouge are following this very closely.

A slight shift right into Mississippi makes a HUGE difference. The NHC's path as it stands right now would mean LOTS of downed trees and powerlines here. A shift, and we barely get anything.

Do you see it following NHC's path as it stands right now, or shifting?

[wxwatcher1999]

it has slowed way down....I would have thought it was supposed to do that right on the coast and drift north waiting to be picked up....That trof to the NE is not enough to take it out....interesting

if thats the case is that what you think Dr. Frank is seeing that may push it west?

[jinftl]

Not going to be much of a difference in what folks experience with a 75 or 80 mph hurricane vs. a 70 mph t.s. The flooding caused by excessive rain and the threat of surge flooding are the biggest threats. This probably won't be remembered as a wind event storm. Adding 5 or 10 mph to intensity doesn't turn the switch 'on' and then isaac is a threat to take seriously imo

I've heard these "he is looking like he is ready to intensify" posts a thousand times it seems. I am not knocking anyone, I know I have fallen for it many many times myself. I just give up and if it intensifies then fine but I am so over checking to see if this thing is ever going to do anything.

Getting weary. TWC keeps saying it will be a hurricane soon. Ready for this to be over and done.

Not a met, seek professional help.

[thatwhichisnt]

it has slowed way down....I would have thought it was supposed to do that right on the coast and drift north waiting to be picked up....That trof to the NE is not enough to take it out....interesting

So what will this mean? Still general NW direction, just slower?

[thatwhichisnt]

So guys... A lot of people here in Baton Rouge are following this very closely.

A slight shift right into Mississippi makes a HUGE difference. The NHC's path as it stands right now would mean LOTS of downed trees and powerlines here. A shift, and we barely get anything.

Do you see it following NHC's path as it stands right now, or shifting?

In Baton Rouge, well Prairieville, myself.

[hurricanes1234]

Any updates on the intensity of Isaac? Best track, anything?

[locke]

Dry air entrainment, wind shear and large wind field have all been inhibiting factors in Issacs development to this point. The only thing Issac had going was favourable OHC.

It would now appear as though the shear is easing and dry air entrainment whilst still present is not as noticeable. However the larger wind field is still likely to hinder intensification to some degree.

To me the NHC forecast looks on the money in terms of intensity but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Isaac came in a little stronger than forecast.

[chris1985]

Here's the vid he's talking about Rock.
http://www.khou.com/community/WATCH-Dr- ... 20065.html

[anarchiver19]

FYI, there is an excellent alternative for those who are growing weary of TWC coverage. DirecTV is providing a public information service with wall to wall coverage from all of the major television stations in the Greater New Orleans area for the entire event. For those with DirecTV satellite service, tune into Channel 349 where it is labeled Tropical Storm Isaac Information Channel. I have been watching it all evening and I like to get the local perspective of what is occuring in New Orleans and surrounding areas and their preparations as Isaac moves into that area.

Thanks for this info. On DirecTV in Southeastern Virginia it's Channel 325 so it might be a different channel depending on where you are.

[CopyGator]

Here's the HRRR currently:

Then the HRRR at 3am:

The ramp up in intensity sure is taking its time.

Can you please explain/provide more information on the HRRR model? Thanks

[ROCK]

it has slowed way down....I would have thought it was supposed to do that right on the coast and drift north waiting to be picked up....That trof to the NE is not enough to take it out....interesting

So what will this mean? Still general NW direction, just slower?

yes, I think it will correct itself eventually when its able to wrap suffient covection to the NE, N quads...right now all the convection is on the S,SW meaning he has a big butt.

Dry air is all over this right now...sucking right into the core...hes got to fight that off if he wants to be any bigger than a 1....

[jinftl]

Average track error for NHC 36 hours out from landfall is 75 miles (data used was for 2007-2011 storms). No obvious indications of huge track changes...all storms wobble, stair-step, etc...towards landfall, those wobbles can mean the difference between the center passing over or missing the brunt...more true of really intense storms with a compact eyewall of worst winds...not really an accurate description of the more spread out structure of Isaac with areas well east of the center seeing comparable wind speeds.

NHC did note at 5pm:

RECON WIND DATA INDICATE THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS ALSO
PULLED INWARD TO ABOUT 30 N MI.

A shrinking wind field is actually what Isaac needs to do if he wants to intensify and develop a tight core - thinking of a figure skater, when he or she pulls their arms in they can start spinning faster and faster.

So guys... A lot of people here in Baton Rouge are following this very closely.

A slight shift right into Mississippi makes a HUGE difference. The NHC's path as it stands right now would mean LOTS of downed trees and powerlines here. A shift, and we barely get anything.

Do you see it following NHC's path as it stands right now, or shifting?

[tolakram]

So guys... A lot of people here in Baton Rouge are following this very closely.

A slight shift right into Mississippi makes a HUGE difference. The NHC's path as it stands right now would mean LOTS of downed trees and powerlines here. A shift, and we barely get anything.

Do you see it following NHC's path as it stands right now, or shifting?

You never follow the "path", the path itself is almost always wrong this far out, instead you follow the cone.



If you are in the cone then you should expect a hit. Hurricane forecasting is not an exact science and this far out no one can answer your question.

[northjaxpro]

FYI, there is an excellent alternative for those who are growing weary of TWC coverage. DirecTV is providing a public information service with wall to wall coverage from all of the major television stations in the Greater New Orleans area for the entire event. For those with DirecTV satellite service, tune into Channel 349 where it is labeled Tropical Storm Isaac Information Channel. I have been watching it all evening and I like to get the local perspective of what is occuring in New Orleans and surrounding areas and their preparations as Isaac moves into that area.

Thanks for this info. On DirecTV in Southeastern Virginia it's Channel 325 so it might be a different channel depending on where you are.

Thanks anarchiver. I forgot the channels may be different in other markets. But, I am extremely pleased DirecTV is providing this public service. It is really excellent that they are giving everyone insight into the coverage from all the televison stations in New Orleans as Isaac approaches.

[ROCK]

Dry air entrainment, wind shear and large wind field have all been inhibiting factors in Issacs development to this point. The only thing Issac had going was favourable OHC.

It would now appear as though the shear is easing and dry air entrainment whilst still present is not as noticeable. However the larger wind field is still likely to hinder intensification to some degree.

To me the NHC forecast looks on the money in terms of intensity but it certainly wouldn't surprise me if Isaac came in a little stronger than forecast.

not as noticeable?....look at the N and NE quads...those dry slots....its eating some serious dry air....needs to moisten up that area so it can build some convection. If he doesnt he will have a big butt all the way to landfall with all the bad stuff to the south...

[ROCK]

So guys... A lot of people here in Baton Rouge are following this very closely.

A slight shift right into Mississippi makes a HUGE difference. The NHC's path as it stands right now would mean LOTS of downed trees and powerlines here. A shift, and we barely get anything.

Do you see it following NHC's path as it stands right now, or shifting?

You never follow the "path", the path itself is almost always wrong this far out, instead you follow the cone.


If you are in the cone then you should expect a hit. Hurricane forecasting is not an exact science and this far out no one can answer your question.

excatly...follow the cone...cant be said enough...now we get 18-24 hrs out its a different story...

[KimmieLa]

Not going to be much of a difference in what folks experience with a 75 or 80 mph hurricane vs. a 70 mph t.s. The flooding caused by excessive rain and the threat of surge flooding are the biggest threats. This probably won't be remembered as a wind event storm. Adding 5 or 10 mph to intensity doesn't turn the switch 'on' and then isaac is a threat to take seriously imo

I've heard these "he is looking like he is ready to intensify" posts a thousand times it seems. I am not knocking anyone, I know I have fallen for it many many times myself. I just give up and if it intensifies then fine but I am so over checking to see if this thing is ever going to do anything.

Getting weary. TWC keeps saying it will be a hurricane soon. Ready for this to be over and done.

Not a met, seek professional help.

Thanks, jinftl, guess just battle fatigued. 5 or 10 mph more won't make much of a difference here. We are being told here that we are looking at power outages and plenty of downed trees. Just ready to get this done so the stress can flee. Taking it seriously for sure, no matter what intensity. Appreciate your comments because I know you just went through this.

[fasterdisaster]

This storm has been organizing constantly for the last 2-3 days but it's been doing it at a snail's pace. Quite irritating, even though it's good news for Gulf Coasters.

[CronkPSU]

FYI, there is an excellent alternative for those who are growing weary of TWC coverage. DirecTV is providing a public information service with wall to wall coverage from all of the major television stations in the Greater New Orleans area for the entire event. For those with DirecTV satellite service, tune into Channel 349 where it is labeled Tropical Storm Isaac Information Channel. I have been watching it all evening and I like to get the local perspective of what is occuring in New Orleans and surrounding areas and their preparations as Isaac moves into that area.

Thanks for this info. On DirecTV in Southeastern Virginia it's Channel 325 so it might be a different channel depending on where you are.

Thanks anarchiver. I forgot the channels may be different in other markets. But, I am extremely pleased DirecTV is providing this public service. It is really excellent that they are giving everyone insight into the coverage from all the televison stations in New Orleans as Isaac approaches.

it is on both channels

[jasons2k]

It may not be as bad as it looks - look at microwave imagery. Also with the pressure so low, only a matter of time before the winds respond. As it gets closer to the coast, the frictional effects of land will aid in the tightening.