ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Meteorcane]

I really do not understand the references to Katrina. I went through Katrina myself... it is laughable to me. We are very fortunate tonight... dry air has been our savior. Later today into Wednesday will be rough, but we'll be fine.

Hitting same area on roughly same day, pretty much the only similarities, but every region has their benchmark storms, before Katrina it was Betsy or Camille, and every little T.S. seemed to draw some comparison to those storms. Although I would not be amazed to see New Orleans get comparable wind to what it received during Katrina (most of the city except for N.O East/St.Bernard/Plaquemines, received 65-75 mph sustained winds. On Isaac's current path New Orleans may get similar winds, although obviously the winds were not the primary cause of destruction on the Gulf Coast by a long shot with Katrina.

[muscarem]

New UKmet model is showing a landfall west of New Orleans now for the first time, just came out.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

The blue line with squares.

[wkwally]

I am thinking a lot of inland flooding.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SoupBone]

I would nor be shocked if Issac makes it to a cat 2 or waek 3 if it slows down but who knows. from what I last seen the NHC still has it making 2 just before landfall.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, the NHC has it estimated to be a Cat 1 at landfall.

[muscarem]

:uarrow:

Yeah you're right I kind of lost track of time, I should note these winds are also in the NE quadrant where you should expect them, rather than in the SW quadrant maybe a sign of some organization/symmetry although Isaac is trying me thin at the moment as he seems to build up and then fall apart. That being said the pressure has been steadily falling the last day or so.

They were found more North than NE of the center actually. And the winds to the SW were almost as strong almost 100 miles SW of the center.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 280626
AF309 2909A ISAAC HDOB 40 20120828
061800 2902N 08756W 8418 01503 0010 +160 +160 076055 061 044 006 01
061830 2900N 08758W 8447 01474 0009 +160 +160 075058 062 045 005 01
061900 2859N 08800W 8425 01489 0012 +160 +160 074056 058 046 008 01
061930 2858N 08802W 8416 01503 0014 +150 +150 064051 058 045 011 01
062000 2856N 08803W 8445 01470 0010 +150 +150 078053 054 047 013 01
062030 2855N 08805W 8422 01497 0003 +168 +161 076054 057 044 005 00
062100 2854N 08807W 8434 01483 0000 +173 +161 075056 057 045 003 00
062130 2852N 08809W 8434 01481 9996 +175 +163 074055 056 045 004 00
062200 2851N 08811W 8414 01498 9999 +166 +165 070060 061 046 004 00
062230 2850N 08813W 8433 01478 9993 +174 +166 068059 061 046 004 00
062300 2848N 08814W 8416 01497 0005 +160 +160 064054 058 045 013 01
062330 2847N 08816W 8445 01464 0002 +150 +150 070056 057 048 008 01
062400 2846N 08818W 8431 01476 9995 +165 +164 070057 060 047 008 03
062430 2844N 08820W 8436 01469 9991 +172 +162 065056 059 048 006 00
062500 2843N 08822W 8418 01488 9995 +160 +160 063060 061 047 005 01
062530 2841N 08824W 8439 01468 9993 +165 +163 062065 068 047 004 00
062600 2840N 08826W 8429 01476 9987 +171 +163 061065 067 046 005 00
062630 2839N 08827W 8426 01478 9980 +183 +164 058063 068 046 003 00
062700 2837N 08829W 8429 01475 9985 +173 +167 055062 062 045 004 00
062730 2836N 08831W 8425 01480 9985 +172 +169 054061 062 045 003 00

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 65 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Shuriken]

as far as wind goes, with larger systems, it takes longer for pressure drops to equate to greater wind speeds

Katrina had a large windfield as a cat-1 in the south-central Gulf, but intensified to a cat-5 very rapidly after puttering around for a bit.

It was a small system in the south central gulf until it underwent an eyewall replacement cycle. It was much larger after that cycle and thats when Katrina took off.....

Katrina already had a large, well-established windfield prior to EWR to a big eye (in fact, such is pretty much a requirement for evolution to a large eye). See at the 50-second mark in this video, and note the banding: http://video.nationalgeographic.com/vid ... s/katrina/

[SoupBone]

URNT15 KNHC 280626

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 65 knots
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 68 knots (~ 78.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)

Chris, what quad is that from?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Whoops, posted in wrong thread.

It's in the NW away from most of the convection.

[TSmith274]

I really do not understand the references to Katrina. I went through Katrina myself... it is laughable to me. We are very fortunate tonight... dry air has been our savior. Later today into Wednesday will be rough, but we'll be fine.

Hitting same area on roughly same day, pretty much the only similarities, but every region has their benchmark storms, before Katrina it was Betsy or Camille, and every little T.S. seemed to draw some comparison to those storms. Although I would not be amazed to see New Orleans get comparable wind to what it received during Katrina (most of the city except for N.O East/St.Bernard/Plaquemines, received 65-75 mph sustained winds. On Isaac's current path New Orleans may get similar winds, although obviously the winds were not the primary cause of destruction on the Gulf Coast by a long shot with Katrina.

Excellent post, and I agree. I just didn't really think of it that way.

On a side note, I have no wind guage, but there is certainly a steady wind outside at the moment. I'm hearing that sound of wind through trees at the moment. But there's a difference between a sustained wind and a gusty wind you might find in a cold front. It's a sound you certainly dont hear every day. Definiitely out of the ordinary. Sustained winds are definitely here in their early stages.

[ROCK]

since no ones at the model page... .the EURO shows more west landfall and drift into Texas....actually hugs the coast some ala IVAN II but not as far west....

[Elizabeth]

Hi all this is my very first post. I would like to start out by saying... THANK YOU ALL! For what you do here!


Ok, I am a complete novice. My only education on this subject is strictly from being a lifelong resident of SE Louisiana, and keeping up with the information coming in throughout the years.


Now to my question....

I cannot seem to wrap my head around the pressure situation of this storm. Here it is at 978 mb, yet still isnt even a Hurricane yet?

I realize that the Pressure/Saffir-Simpson scale relationships are pretty loose. But does this mean that if this storm becomes more compact and better organized, that we would see a more rapid intensification, then normal?

[ROCK]

Hi all this is my very first post. I would like to start out by saying... THANK YOU ALL! For what you do here!


Ok, I am a complete novice. My only education on this subject is strictly from being a lifelong resident of SE Louisiana, and keeping up with the information coming in throughout the years.


Now to my question....

I cannot seem to wrap my head around the pressure situation of this storm. Here it is at 978 mb, yet still isnt even a Hurricane yet?

I realize that the Pressure/Saffir-Simpson scale relationships are pretty loose. But does this mean that if this storm becomes more compact and better organized, that we would see a more rapid intensification, then normal?

hey Liz welcome to 2K......not saying it cant deepen more but it needs to work out this dry air issue first.

[SoupBone]

Is it just me or is he sucking in some more dry air near his center? He's firing off some more convection over it as well.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Welcome Elizabeth.

[smw1981]

Now to my question....

I cannot seem to wrap my head around the pressure situation of this storm. Here it is at 978 mb, yet still isnt even a Hurricane yet?

I realize that the Pressure/Saffir-Simpson scale relationships are pretty loose. But does this mean that if this storm becomes more compact and better organized, that we would see a more rapid intensification, then normal?

Maybe not "more rapid than normal", but if it tightens up a little, we should definitely see it intensify because then all of that energy doesn't have to be spread so far.

[Elizabeth]

Hi all this is my very first post. I would like to start out by saying... THANK YOU ALL! For what you do here!


Ok, I am a complete novice. My only education on this subject is strictly from being a lifelong resident of SE Louisiana, and keeping up with the information coming in throughout the years.


Now to my question....

I cannot seem to wrap my head around the pressure situation of this storm. Here it is at 978 mb, yet still isnt even a Hurricane yet?

I realize that the Pressure/Saffir-Simpson scale relationships are pretty loose. But does this mean that if this storm becomes more compact and better organized, that we would see a more rapid intensification, then normal?

hey Liz welcome to 2K......not saying it cant deepen more but it needs to work out this dry air issue first.

As it looks now... Is there much of a chance of that prior to landfall?

And thank you for your response.

[muscarem]

Most of the convection appears to be SW of the system, it needs to wrap around the center if it's going to get it's act together b4 landfall.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Doesn't matter...the only good thing is we may possibly not lose power.....there will be alot of rain. I'll take less wind. We had Cat. 5 storm surge with cat 2 winds with Katrina. You get good with bad and bad with good. But, I think we're going to lose power...this storm is no Katrina, but, it's strong.