ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

[Dave]

I will need someone to take over for me by 5 pm edt please.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262031
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 15 20120526
202100 3022N 07721W 9594 00437 0092 +206 +198 309029 030 022 001 03
202130 3024N 07720W 9595 00435 0088 +211 +199 317030 031 020 000 00
202200 3025N 07719W 9589 00443 0089 +210 +201 318028 029 020 000 00
202230 3027N 07718W 9592 00437 0084 +210 +204 316029 029 016 001 00
202300 3028N 07717W 9588 00435 0081 +210 +206 315027 028 015 001 00
202330 3030N 07715W 9593 00431 0079 +210 +203 317027 027 013 000 00
202400 3031N 07714W 9591 00431 0078 +207 +201 318026 027 013 001 00
202430 3031N 07714W 9591 00431 0076 +210 +197 313027 027 015 002 00
202500 3034N 07712W 9627 00395 0075 +207 +199 312029 031 019 002 00
202530 3035N 07711W 9623 00398 0075 +201 //// 313031 032 020 001 01
202600 3035N 07711W 9623 00398 0075 +201 //// 313031 032 020 001 01
202630 3035N 07711W 9623 00398 0075 +201 //// 313031 032 020 001 01
202700 3035N 07711W 9623 00398 0075 +201 //// 313031 032 020 001 01
202730 3041N 07706W 9626 00400 0078 +206 +191 315028 030 015 002 03
202800 3041N 07706W 9626 00400 0079 +207 +194 315028 029 /// /// 03
202830 3041N 07706W 9626 00400 0079 +207 +194 315028 029 /// /// 03
202900 3045N 07702W 9630 00397 0079 +208 +183 317031 033 /// /// 03
202930 3047N 07701W 9627 00397 0076 +205 +196 314030 030 /// /// 03
203000 3048N 07700W 9630 00394 0075 +205 +199 312030 030 /// /// 03
203030 3049N 07659W 9630 00390 0073 +205 +198 315031 032 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 262034
XXAA 76205 99301 70787 11608 99013 25440 33027 00114 24430 32526
92793 19207 34528 85517 15203 34527 70144 07031 34523 50583 07917
00530 88999 77999
31313 09608 82000
61616 AF307 0102A BERYL OB 05
62626 SPL 3003N07867W 2008 MBL WND 33029 AEV 20802 DLM WND 35028
012494 WL150 33027 083 REL 3010N07868W 200013 SPG 3003N07867W 200
834 =
XXBB 76208 99301 70787 11608 00013 25440 11850 15203 22735 09636
33639 01617 44507 06521 55494 09114
21212 00013 33027 11959 33530 22850 34527 33674 34025 44539 01535
55494 36028
31313 09608 82000
61616 AF307 0102A BERYL OB 05
62626 SPL 3003N07867W 2008 MBL WND 33029 AEV 20802 DLM WND 35028
012494 WL150 33027 083 REL 3010N07868W 200013 SPG 3003N07867W 200
834 =
;

[sponger]

We are rooting on as much as a transition as possible to tropical as we need the rain!

Surf this morning was great but we desparetely need rain!

[Dave]

Because of the late takeoff this afternoon I'll need someone to take over for me by 5 pm edt.

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262039
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 16 20120526
203100 3049N 07659W 9630 00390 0073 +205 +198 315031 032 /// /// 03
203130 3049N 07659W 9630 00390 0073 +205 +198 315031 032 /// /// 03
203200 3054N 07655W 9629 00386 0066 +205 +192 310029 030 /// /// 03
203230 3055N 07654W 9629 00383 0063 +205 +201 314031 032 /// /// 03
203300 3057N 07653W 9628 00382 0061 +205 +202 315032 032 /// /// 03
203330 3058N 07651W 9630 00378 0057 +205 +200 316033 035 024 001 03
203400 3059N 07650W 9630 00374 0055 +204 +203 318035 036 026 001 00
203430 3101N 07649W 9629 00373 0052 +200 //// 318035 036 027 001 01
203500 3102N 07648W 9631 00367 0048 +202 //// 324035 035 026 001 01
203530 3103N 07647W 9631 00366 0044 +204 +203 324037 037 025 004 00
203600 3105N 07646W 9627 00365 0041 +200 //// 321037 037 031 006 01
203630 3106N 07644W 9628 00363 0039 +197 //// 321035 036 035 008 01
203700 3108N 07643W 9631 00355 0035 +195 //// 322035 036 034 007 01
203730 3109N 07642W 9630 00352 0032 +194 //// 321033 034 032 004 01
203800 3110N 07641W 9633 00347 0027 +196 //// 322032 033 028 006 01
203830 3112N 07640W 9625 00349 0022 +200 //// 319031 031 027 006 05
203900 3113N 07638W 9631 00342 0016 +208 //// 319030 031 025 002 01
203930 3114N 07637W 9623 00342 0010 +206 //// 318030 030 022 001 01
204000 3116N 07635W 9631 00330 0004 +210 //// 319028 029 023 002 01
204030 3117N 07634W 9628 00327 9996 +214 //// 314023 024 022 000 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Pressure drops to 1000 mbs.

[Dave]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 20:34Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Beryl (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 05

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 20Z on the 26th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 500mb
Coordinates: 30.1N 78.7W
Location: 153 miles (247 km) to the ENE (66°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 330° (from the NNW) 27 knots (31 mph)
1000mb 114m (374 ft) 24.4°C (75.9°F) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 325° (from the NW) 26 knots (30 mph)
925mb 793m (2,602 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.5°C (65.3°F) 345° (from the NNW) 28 knots (32 mph)
850mb 1,517m (4,977 ft) 15.2°C (59.4°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F) 345° (from the NNW) 27 knots (31 mph)
700mb 3,144m (10,315 ft) 7.0°C (44.6°F) 3.9°C (39.0°F) 345° (from the NNW) 23 knots (26 mph)
500mb 5,830m (19,127 ft) -7.9°C (17.8°F) -9.6°C (14.7°F) 5° (from the N) 30 knots (35 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 20:00Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 30.03N 78.67W
Splash Time: 20:08Z

Release Location: 30.1N 78.68W View map)
Release Time: 20:00:13Z

Splash Location: 30.03N 78.67W (
Splash Time: 20:08:34Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 330° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 350° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 28 knots (32 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 494mb to 1012mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 330° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 27 knots (31 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1013mb (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 21.4°C (70.5°F)
850mb 15.2°C (59.4°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F)
735mb 9.6°C (49.3°F) 6.0°C (42.8°F)
639mb 1.6°C (34.9°F) -0.1°C (31.8°F)
507mb -6.5°C (20.3°F) -8.6°C (16.5°F)
494mb -9.1°C (15.6°F) -10.5°C (13.1°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1013mb (Surface) 330° (from the NNW) 27 knots (31 mph)
959mb 335° (from the NNW) 30 knots (35 mph)
850mb 345° (from the NNW) 27 knots (31 mph)
674mb 340° (from the NNW) 25 knots (29 mph)
539mb 15° (from the NNE) 35 knots (40 mph)
494mb 360° (from the N) 28 knots (32 mph)


---



[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 262049
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 17 20120526
204100 3118N 07632W 9630 00322 9992 +214 //// 291012 017 016 002 01
204130 3120N 07631W 9711 00249 9992 +218 //// 166005 009 003 000 05
204200 3122N 07630W 9832 00140 9991 +222 //// 123014 016 005 000 01
204230 3123N 07630W 9799 00170 9993 +223 //// 113021 025 017 003 01
204300 3125N 07629W 9809 00165 9998 +219 //// 113029 030 019 002 05
204330 3126N 07628W 9805 00175 0003 +215 //// 117032 034 025 000 01
204400 3128N 07627W 9810 00173 0007 +217 +214 121031 032 024 002 03
204430 3129N 07625W 9808 00180 0013 +219 +214 122030 030 022 003 00
204500 3130N 07624W 9808 00184 0017 +220 +212 126029 029 022 000 00
204530 3131N 07622W 9810 00185 0020 +220 +218 131028 029 020 002 00
204600 3133N 07621W 9805 00189 0023 +218 //// 129030 034 027 001 01
204630 3134N 07619W 9809 00189 0026 +213 //// 120041 043 034 000 01
204700 3135N 07618W 9810 00188 0030 +199 //// 120047 050 036 005 01
204730 3136N 07617W 9803 00204 //// +185 //// 123046 047 039 005 01
204800 3137N 07615W 9665 00332 0042 +200 //// 125045 047 035 002 01
204830 3138N 07614W 9630 00369 0048 +205 //// 127047 048 036 002 01
204900 3139N 07612W 9631 00370 0051 +199 //// 124044 048 035 001 01
204930 3141N 07611W 9637 00369 0055 +201 //// 122048 050 038 002 05
205000 3142N 07609W 9623 00385 0059 +200 //// 123046 047 035 002 01
205030 3143N 07608W 9627 00383 0062 +202 //// 124045 046 034 002 01
$$
;

999.1 mb's

[cycloneye]

A few 40kts and 50kts on last set and 999.1 mbs,the lowest pressure.

[Dave]

Ok need someone to take hdobs for awhile, I do have to leave now. Thanks!

[Dave]

Got to take off Cycloneye, be back later if it's still out there. Thanks

[cycloneye]

If anyone takes over I will do the second pass.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING BERYL...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. THE STORM IS
MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER
OF BERYL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN


SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER OF BERYL...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS OTHERWISE CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT
MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST BEGUN ITS INVESTIGATION OF THE
SYSTEM...AND WILL SOON PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS
INTENSITY.

THE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/4. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST
LATE SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF BERYL INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE BERYL TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN SHARPLY RECURVE. THE
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT DISAGREE
CONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE
VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE. THE
GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS TAKE BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
INLAND BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH THE LANDFALL...AND THEN SLIGHTLY WEST OF IT THEREAFTER.

ALTHOUGH BERYL LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...DRY AIR AND THE OVERALL BROAD STRUCTURE OF ITS WIND FIELD
SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. AT THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BERYL WILL BE OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A
STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ANY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 31.5N 76.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 30.9N 77.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 30.4N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 30.4N 81.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 30.9N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 29/1800Z 31.5N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/1800Z 34.0N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 31/1800Z 38.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

[Kingarabian]

Stays @ 45mph.

[hurricanefloyd5]

A few 40kts and 50kts on last set and 999.1 mbs,the lowest pressure.

Dose this mean winds at 50kts(60mph) in beryl. If yes then chances of this being a hurricane is what if at 50kts (60mph) winds?

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 262059
AF307 0102A BERYL HDOB 18 20120526
205100 3144N 07607W 9630 00386 0066 +201 //// 125044 044 033 002 01
205130 3145N 07605W 9630 00387 0069 +200 //// 126045 046 032 003 01
205200 3146N 07604W 9628 00391 0072 +202 +199 128045 046 034 001 00
205230 3148N 07602W 9629 00394 0075 +200 +200 129046 047 033 001 00
205300 3149N 07601W 9627 00397 0079 +197 //// 127048 049 034 003 01
205330 3150N 07559W 9630 00396 0082 +195 //// 126050 051 037 002 05
205400 3151N 07558W 9628 00401 0084 +193 //// 128051 051 038 002 01
205430 3152N 07556W 9631 00403 0089 +185 //// 126051 052 038 009 01
205500 3153N 07555W 9629 00407 //// +166 //// 124052 053 041 016 01
205530 3154N 07554W 9633 00404 //// +160 //// 121054 055 043 012 01
205600 3156N 07552W 9628 00411 //// +161 //// 123050 053 045 020 05
205630 3157N 07551W 9646 00397 //// +173 //// 127048 051 039 011 01
205700 3158N 07550W 9620 00414 //// +174 //// 123043 044 044 020 01
205730 3159N 07548W 9634 00403 0095 +189 //// 120044 046 033 012 01
205800 3200N 07547W 9616 00426 0099 +199 //// 122045 046 031 008 01
205830 3201N 07546W 9629 00418 0104 +203 //// 125045 046 031 008 01
205900 3202N 07544W 9624 00423 0106 +201 //// 125046 046 032 005 01
205930 3203N 07543W 9620 00433 0114 +199 //// 124045 045 029 006 01
210000 3205N 07541W 9627 00433 0118 +200 //// 123044 044 025 003 01
210030 3206N 07539W 9629 00431 0119 +204 //// 123043 044 025 002 01
$$