ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nederlander]

I still don't see him making it all the way to Port Arthur, but I suppose it's possible given the bend in the western LA coast. The problem I see is that if he does get trapped, there's nowhere to go, and I mean nowhere. But all that aside, I still think he's a Louisiana storm..

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[ROCK]

I think it's just the LLC going retrograde again - it's actually a little NE of the previous position, so either a) it's stalling again b) they didn't get a good center read c) it's spinning counterclockwise again within the CDO or d) it made a hell of a right turn.

I'm thinking 'C'.

what were the coordinates? did we get a VDM?

[Texashawk]

Well, still no hurricane, and no change in forecast track from the NHC... oh well. It was exciting while it lasted...

[southerngale]

I knew that... damn, it's late. Sorry SG!!

No problem!

I took a break and jumped in the shower... now there's a Tropical Storm Watch here...

[Texashawk]

I think it's just the LLC going retrograde again - it's actually a little NE of the previous position, so either a) it's stalling again b) they didn't get a good center read c) it's spinning counterclockwise again within the CDO or d) it made a hell of a right turn.

I'm thinking 'C'.

what were the coordinates? did we get a VDM?

No VDM, but I pulled the OB with the wind shift and lowest pressure:
084330 2725N 08758W 8426 01314 9780 +200 +200 011003 005 020 003 01

Based on the previous VDM fix, it seems to be reorganizing (yawn) yet again.

[ROCK]

Well, still no hurricane, and no change in forecast track from the NHC... oh well. It was exciting while it lasted...

If it keeps going west then the NHC "belief" that this is temporary would be an understatement....

[cigtyme]

i fall asleep for 4 hours and blam.I hate when the guys on TV say Houma when there is a storm.

[Texashawk]

Well, still no hurricane, and no change in forecast track from the NHC... oh well. It was exciting while it lasted...

If it keeps going west then the NHC "belief" that this is temporary would be an understatement....

True, and it's interesting that now King Euro was sniffing out this behavior (24 hours from now, of course, but hey...)

[ROCK]

Well, still no hurricane, and no change in forecast track from the NHC... oh well. It was exciting while it lasted...

If it keeps going west then the NHC "belief" that this is temporary would be an understatement....

True, and it's interesting that now King Euro was sniffing out this behavior (24 hours from now, of course, but hey...)

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[ROCK]

NOAA entering stage right

[ROCK]

Hawk that really aint NE so to speak....thats a hair north of due west...well within the margin of error....

[Texashawk]

That is a mighty steep turn it's going to have to take. We shall see.

[ROCK]

steering from 3 hours ago until now.....see the difference....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... m=&time=-1


now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Jagno]

From Rock's previous post Isaac is almost vertically south of Plaquemine Parish (MS Delta). Unless he magically lifts due north then he will be landfalling west of New Orleans. JMHO and I'm no professional met by any means.

[ROCK]

can someone tell me why NOAA is doing water sampling? you would think center fixes would be better given recent events...

[Cyclenall]

Wow, this thing looks like a royal mess. I feel like a chump for following it all this time and especially after my proclaiming of the tropics being "weak sauce" back weeks ago. Isaac is PMO just like a few others this season. Not to take away from the serious flood/surge threat this system poses to the Gulf coast, the wind element which hasn't been demonstrated in ages will once again not be anything crazy. While this is far from being the nothing it could have been had it taken the long track through the islands, I would have totally laughed at the idea this would still be a TS up to this point with the Gulf conditions being as they are and the time of year. Then I remember how bad this season has been so far (Ernesto, Helene). 3rd time tricked, shame on me for sure! While I did learn things from tracking this mediocre TS, I feel like this isn't the time for non-at-risk-watchers to follow the tropics. What has been ironic and somewhat funny is this is the ultimate tease TC...everyone was and still is on edge of this thing "Taking off" or "Rapidly intensifying" non stop and it never happens. 5 knot strengthening every 24 hours is not slow, its extremely slow. I'd like to see how long this continues up until landfall for entertainment purposes. [/Soapbox]

Issac attempted to do the wrap-around and form a visible eye two times during the last 12-18 hours. It has failed both attempts while in bath water and an "alright" upper level regime. You can tell when the wrap-around will fail with the convection on east side weakening as it wraps around the eyewall. I don't know if that's dry air at the mid-levels doing this or inner structure problems that don't have a scientific answer yet. The convection is lopsided to the south but I have seen very powerful TC's have this shape before, usually in the Wpac. If dry air becomes more of a problem soon then its game over for an increase in winds, pressure may still drop a bit (strangely, like Irene from last year). I showed someone a comparison of Issac to TS Ileana in the Epac and they thought Ileana looked better!

At this point, what are the chances Isaac stays a TS all the way to landfall?

I started wondering the same, seems almost likely .

At this point, with this storm, who knows? It's on the verge on being a historical storm in many ways (length of time as TS, basins covered, lowest pressure) so throw out the rulebook with this one, Lilybeth.

Maybe historical. The most interesting part: the tropics making everyone (and I mean everyone) look like idiots . I don't know if I have seen so many bust on one TC (including me), the only winners are the ones that thought this would amount to a TS in the central Gulf right from the very beginning...not many. Since we don't know the final outcome, I won't go further past that as we could look even worse after its all said and done.

last pass 978 MB still

Not surprised, that's telling actually. The satellite presentation looks worse now than it did 18 hours ago. Right now we should have been seeing an exploding hurricane . The pressure should be going down slowly even if the winds aren't catching up...being the same shows nada.

Well, still no hurricane, and no change in forecast track from the NHC... oh well. It was exciting while it lasted...

Don't worry, you were just 16 hours later than I was to come to that conclusion. I'm still going to watch Brain Osborne though on his feed, that Irene chase from last year was one of the funniest and most hilarious things I saw in 2011.

[Nederlander]

Well, still no hurricane, and no change in forecast track from the NHC... oh well. It was exciting while it lasted...

If it keeps going west then the NHC "belief" that this is temporary would be an understatement....

True, and it's interesting that now King Euro was sniffing out this behavior (24 hours from now, of course, but hey...)

If the western trend continues, the GFS should be crowned, not the Euro. The Euro was the eastern outlier while the GFS consistently showed the western trend before moving a little back east today. Not trying to start a model war, but the Euro didn't handle Isaac well at all compared to the GFS. And if he makes it to Texas (still not likely IMO), we are going to have to give props to the GFDL... Lol

[Texashawk]

For your viewing pleasure, a baby eye (maybe) trying to form (again)!

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LIX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=L20&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0

[rtd2]

That is a mighty steep turn it's going to have to take. We shall see.

I agree and posted a couple of days ago how strange it would be for issac to go by and forth w,nw,w and turn up nnw or due north near mouth of the river like katrina .... its not impossible but with the lastest trend in west mvt certainly should keep our TX freinds alert!!

[GCANE]

TRMM is showing a huge hot tower to the south of the LLC

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.59pc.jpg

Looks like the ULL, that was over the Yucatan, has now moved to the Mexican coast a little earlier than forecast.

As a result, the anti-cyclone has moved closer to the LLC.

Shear is very light now at 1.6 m/s

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

CAPE is about 2000 in the core

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

Any continued move to the west will bring Isaac over the Loop-Current Eddy and very high OHC water.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 280000.GIF

Core is now at 3C centered at 10km with no boundary layer inversion - best its looked so far.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 9_TANO.GIF