ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

wow, the entire southern half of the circulation has vigorously reconvected today and its not finished yet. even more surprising is that its right around d-min. looks like that center is trying to tuck back under, has the shear backed off?

[Macrocane]

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Track forecast has improved a lot since Jeanne and even more since Andrew, anyway I wouldn't rule out a similar track for Leslie or a landfall in US East Coast. The pattern is and will be very complex for the next few days, I think we should wait at least 2 days more to know with better precision where Leslie is going to go. My personal opinion is that Canada and Bermuda have the highest chance of a landfall.

[jinftl]

Latest Discussion on Leslie from NHC:

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE DAY...AS THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
AN ASCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT DATA...THE INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 50 KT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE LESLIE HAS SUCH A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND WIND FIELD...IT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE REMAINING ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.

wow, the entire southern half of the circulation has vigorously reconvected today and its not finished yet. even more surprising is that its right around d-min. looks like that center is trying to tuck back under, has the shear backed off?

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest Discussion on Leslie from NHC:

THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
DURING THE DAY...AS THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
AN ASCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT DATA...THE INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 50 KT.

THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE LESLIE HAS SUCH A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND WIND FIELD...IT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN
INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE REMAINING ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.

wow, the entire southern half of the circulation has vigorously reconvected today and its not finished yet. even more surprising is that its right around d-min. looks like that center is trying to tuck back under, has the shear backed off?

I mean I knew it wasnt supposed to for another day or 2, but that was written when the convection was much further displaced than it is now. Since this is such a recent development, I guess we should wait and see if it sticks around, but I what could cause it to wrap all that moisture back in so suddenly after having the center so severely exposed for the past couple days?

[crimi481]

Is the ULL near S. Fl - forecast to keep moving in WSW direction?
If so - woud Leslie follow it - as ridge builds to her N?

[Janie2006]

Shear can be a really tricky thing to forecast sometimes, although I think the short-term shear forecasts have really improved over the last few years.

[LarryWx]

Is the ULL near S. Fl - forecast to keep moving in WSW direction?
If so - woud Leslie follow it - as ridge builds to her N?

Barring a miracle, Leslie isn't going to even be close to FL. There's no ridge north of Leslie to even take it close to FL. You can relax.

[SootyTern]

Is the ULL near S. Fl - forecast to keep moving in WSW direction?
If so - woud Leslie follow it - as ridge builds to her N?

Miami NWS mentioned the ULL in their early morning discussion:

BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO POOL INTO THE AREA AS AN H5 CUTOFF LOW IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM THE EAST. STILL NOT
EXPECTING THIS FEATURE TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN UPSETTING THE
GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THIS LOW WILL THEN SURGE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY
A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA BACK IN
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER PRIMARILY A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.

[crimi481]

Is the ULL near S. Fl - forecast to keep moving in WSW direction?
If so - woud Leslie follow it - as ridge builds to her N?

Barring a miracle, Leslie isn't going to even be close to FL. There's no ridge north of Leslie to even take it close to FL. You can relax.

Agreed - odds of S. Fl landfall slim or none
s that Capt Kirk, trying to Beam himself to South -back in play? (or transfer enrgy to Leslie) The ULL to Kirk east - pulling him down?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-vis.html

This post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such

[rainstorm]

im not sure what you are trying to say.

[crimi481]

im not sure what you are trying to say.

Regards to future storm overall size/ structure - looks like energy/moisture approching from NE & SE sides.
Shear over center Leslie seems to hve weakened some

I have no clue where it ends up - just fun trying to put players together. Don't think cut and dry -come mid week

[Sanibel]

Man, it has to have some energy to burst like that.

[crimi481]

Man, it has to have some energy to burst like that.

Not sure what NHC discussions means here - as the center is really blossoming. Why is growing?
From Discussion:
THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

[ozonepete]

High Ocean Heat Content there.

[crimi481]

Must be the ULL - to its E and West may be pumping up big bubble /upper high over Leslie.
Plus energy feeding in now -on 3 sides. Nice round look to center
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-bd.html

This post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such

[cycloneye]

Very high towers at this time. But will the shear keep exposing the center or will soon go down allowing for intensification?

[ozonepete]

Wow! Luis, it did this last night, as you know. I'm thinking it will do this on and off until it gets north of the shear zone, which won't be for another couple of days.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think Leslie will be our first major hurricane of the season. Global models forsee significant intensification after 48 hours.

[floridasun78]

it look like LESLIE moving north

[ozonepete]

it look like LESLIE moving north

That's what I see too. Sure is a huge explosion of convection. It looks like most of it has gotten over the LLC again. We need a microwave image to find where the center is.